CW3E AR Update: 15 February 2017 Outlook

February 15, 2017

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Update on Multiple ARs Forecast to Impact West Coast

  • Precipitation has begun to fall over portions of WA, OR, and Northern CA in association with first AR
  • A second AR, which develops with a mesoscale frontal wave, is forecast to propagate southward and impact Southern CA
  • A third AR could impact portions of Northern CA on 20–22 February, but forecast certainty is currently low
  • Maximum 7-day precipitation forecasts are over 12 inches over the high elevations of Northern CA, OR, and WA
  • Southern CA could see as much as 8 inches over the Transverse ranges, which could be a concern for flooding and landslides

Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of 0-180 hour GFS forecast

Valid 1200 UTC 15 Feb – 0000 UTC 20 Feb 2017









Summary provided by C. Hecht and F.M. Ralph; 12 PM PT Wed 15 Feb. 2017