CW3E AR Update: 19 November Outlook

November 19, 2018

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Update on the Multiple ARs forecast to Impact California this Week

  • Forecast confidence in the onset, duration, and magnitude of AR conditions has increased since the last update on 16 Nov.
  • The GEFS is currently suggesting that the 2nd AR could bring moderate AR conditions (IVT 500–750 kg m–1 s–1 ) to coastal CA
  • NOAA WPC 1-5 precipitation accumulations have increased to ~6 inches over portions of Northern California
  • The precipitation may bring much needed relief to the currently active fires and smoky conditions over CA
  • The GEFS is also suggesting the potential for AR activity in the extended forecast (8–13 days) but uncertainty is currently high

    • Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of 0-138 hour GFS forecast

    Valid 1200 UTC 19 November – 1200 UTC 25 November 2018

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Summary provided by C. Hecht, F. M. Ralph, B. Kawzenuk, J. Kalansky; 3 PM PT 19 November 2018

    *Outlook products are considered experimental