Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations

FIRO is a proposed management strategy that uses data from watershed monitoring and modern weather and water forecasting to help water managers selectively retain or release water from reservoirs in a manner that reflects current and forecasted conditions.

FIRO is being developed and tested as a collaborative effort focused on Lake Mendocino that engages experts in civil engineering, hydrology, meteorology, biology, economics and climate from several federal, state and local agencies, universities and others.



 

Overview
News
Executive Summary
Watershed Characteristics
Water Challenges
Interagency Cooperation

Jay Jasperse

(Sonoma County Water Agency)

F. Martin Ralph

(Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at Scripps Institution of Oceanography)


Michael Anderson

(California State Climate Office, Department of Water Resources)

Levi Brekke

(Bureau of Reclamation)

Michael Dettinger

(United States Geologic Survey)

Mike Dillabough

(US Army Corps of Engineers)

Alan Haynes

(Caifornia Nevada River Forecast Center, NWS)

Joseph Forbis

(US Army Corps of Engineers)

Patrick Rutten

(NOAA NMFS Restoration Center)

Cary Talbot

(US Army Corps of Engineers)

Robert Webb

(NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory)


Arleen O’Donnell

(Eastern Research Group)

Ann Dubay

(Sonoma County Water Agency)

David Ford

(David Ford Consulting)

Rob Hartman

(RKH Consulting Services)

FIRO Science Task Group Workshop Presentations

  • Share scientific research (both short-term and longer-term horizons) contributing to Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations
  • Take stock of progress to date on Lake Mendocino FIRO Preliminary Viability Assessment (PVA) and discuss transition to Final Viability Assessment
  • Discuss related matters and opportunities

Rob Hartman, RKH Consulting Services – Results from the Lake Mendocino FIRO Preliminary Viability Assessment and the Role of Science

Presentation

Matt Newman, NOAA ESRL – Skillful Seasonal Forecasts from Model-Based Analogs

Presentation

Andrew Hoell, NOAA ESRL – Reliability of West Coast Extreme Precipitation Events as Drought Busters

Presentation

Kelly Mahoney, NOAA ESRL – A 21st Century HRRR-Based Approach to Estimating Probable Mximum Precipitation to Enhance Dam Safety and Community Resilience

Presentation

Marty Ralph, CW3E – CW3E Atmospheric Rivers: Scales and Categories

Presentation

Mike Dettinger, USGS – How Large do Atmospheric Rivers get in Northern California?

Presentation

Michael Scheuerer, NOAA ESRL – Using GEFS Ensemble Forecasts for Decision Making in Reservoir Management in Calfornia

Presentation

Anna Wilson, CW3E – Observations of Land-Falling Atmospheric Rivers in Northern California during Early 2017

Presentation

Stan Benjamin, NOAA ESRL – Experimental and Operational RAP and HRRR Forecasting of West Coast Extreme Precipitation Events

Presentation

Maryam Asgari-Lamjiri, CW3E – Validation of SMAP Soil Moistre Products in Central and Northern California using In-Situ Observations

Presentation

Marty Ralph, CW3E – Atmospheric River Reconnaissance

Anna Wilson (for Andy Martin, CW3E) – Meso-Scale Frontal Waves in Atmospheric Rivers

Presentation

Ken Nowak, US Bureau of Reclamation – Sub-Seaonal Climate Forecasting Competition: Evaluation and Results

Presentation

Ben Zamora, NOAA ESRL – Evaluation Full Physics and Conceptual Hydrological Model Soil Moisture Simulations with Observations

Presentation

Brian Henn, CW3E – Framework for Assessing Sensitivity of Lake Mendocino Inflow Simulations to High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts

Presentation

Chuck Downer and Stephen Turnbull, USACE ERDC – FIRO Russian River Distributed Hydrologic Modeling using GSSHA

Presentation

Chuck Downer and Stephen Turnbull, USACE ERDC – Watershed and Groudwater Modeling Data Collection to Support Distributed Hydrologic Modeling

Presentation

Rich Niswonger and Lorrie Flint, USGS – Infiltration Sliding Scale Based on Soil Type – Looking to Synch with MS4 Standards

Presentation

Andy Wood, NCAR – Report on Joint USBR, USACE, and NCAR Project: “Over the Loop” Stream-Flow Forecast System

Presentation

Lynn Johnson, NOAA ESRL – Russian River Modeling: a) Real-Time Flash Flood Forecasting Prototype, b) Assessment of Lake Mendocino Reservoir Operating Rules using Coupled Optimization and Simulation Models

Presentation