Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S)

West Coast precipitation is extremely variable from synoptic to multi-decade time scales in response to teleconnections between the Pacific Ocean climate variability and the atmosphere. S2S efforts focus on diagnosing linkages between seasonal Atmospheric River (AR) activity and climate variability that are expressed in sea surface temperatures, revealing links to Pacific decadal variability, recent regional anomalies, and long-term Ocean warming, among other climate indices known to impact the region. CW3E is developing catalogs of extreme weather and water events in order to provide scientists with new consolidated data to study climate-scale AR behavior and its predictability in unprecedented detail. In addition, new automated methodologies are being developed for the detection of ARs to support this effort.

S2S forecasts will have a direct application for water resource management and other societal relevant topic areas in the West Coast of the United States. The importance of understanding critical sources and variability of water supply only increases over time, notably due to the increasing demands from population growth, for drinking water and for agriculture purposes, but also in association with the impacts that are projected from climate change. For the U.S. West Coast, it is essential for scientists and researchers to be able to better predict AR events for short and long-term water management purposes and this is one of the motivating goals for the S2S initiative here at CW3E.

Contact: Scott Sellars (SSellars@ucsd.edu)