CW3E Watershed Precipitation Forecasts
Supported by the California Atmospheric Rivers Program and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers FIRO Program
NEW: We are re-vamping the CW3E Watershed and QPF forecasting tools. For a limited time, the old page will still exist here.

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7-day Model Precipitation Forecasts
Watershed Information:
Watershed Name: Russian
Watershed ID: 18010110
Watershed State(s):CA
Watershed Area: 950365.01 Acres
7-day Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) Forecast
Model Initialized7-day QPF7-day Volume
GFS (Op) YYYYMMDDHH X X
ECMWF (Op) YYYYMMDDHH X X
NOAA WPC YYYYMMDDHH X X
National Blend YYYYMMDDHH X X
GEFS Ensemble Mean YYYYMMDDHH X X
ECMWF Ensemble Mean YYYYMMDDHH X X
Daily Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) for the next 7 days:
ModelDay-1Day-2Day-3Day-4Day-5Day-6Day-7
GFS (Op) X X X X X X X
ECMWF (Op) X X X X X X X
NOAA WPC X X X X X X X
National Blend X X X X X X X
GEFS Ensemble Mean X X X X X X X
ECMWF Ensemble Mean X X X X X X X
7-day GFS/GEFS Precipitation Forecasts 7-day ECMWF/EFS Precipitation Forecast 7-day Difference Precipitation Forecast
Toggle: Zoom to: FIRO:

Methodology:
HUC-8: The 284 watersheds overlapping with Washington, Oregon, and California on this page are obtained from the USGS for the Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC)-8 size and their geometry is simplified/upscaled for plotting efficiency.

The HUC10 watersheds within CW3E's FIRO watersheds on this page are obtained from the USGS for the Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC)-10 size and their geometry is simplified/upscaled for plotting efficiency.

The HUC10 watersheds within CW3E's "AQPI" region on this page are obtained from the USGS for the Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC)-10 size and their geometry is simplified/upscaled for plotting efficiency.

The watersheds are shaded based on their mean areal precipitation (MAP) forecast as 7-day or 5-day totals from different numerical weather prediction models and the NOAA/NWS forecasts. The MAP is derived by (1) identifying grid points (lat/lon pairs) on a 0.1-degree grid that are within each of the HUC-8 watersheds, (2) finding the precipitation at those points using bilinear interpolation from the model grids, and (3) averaging the values across those lat/lon pairs. It is not a median and its value may be skewed.

Data Sources:
The GFS, GEFS, and National Blend data are obtained from the NOAA/National Center for Environmental Prediction via NOMADS. Additional information on those data can be found here. The WPC data are obtained from their website, and the ECMWF and EPS data are obtained from ECMWF by CW3E. The use of the ECMWF data are limited for research purposes and are not intended to directly support decision making operations according to our disclaimer. The map is created using Leaflet Javascript. The charts are visualized using Google Charts with data manipulated within the workflow mentioned above.

The GFS and GEFS are obtained with 0.25-degree grid spacing, the ECMWF at 0.1-degree, the EPS at 0.2-degree, and WPC/NBM at 2.5-km. The CW3E West WRF-GFS and West WRF-ECMWF are both at 3-km grid spacing and the West-WRF ensemble is 9-km.

Without missing data, the QPF on this page represent an ensemble of **287** forecasts including the 30-, 50-, and 200-member GFS, EPS, and West-WRF ensembles.

Limitations:
The mean areal precipitation (MAP) may not be representative of the distribution of precipitation within the watershed and may be skewed; however, it is derived from global and regional NWP models that have relatively coarse resolutions of ~2.5-25 km that are not able to resolve some of the finer resolution variability due to topography within the watersheds anyways.

Contact:
The methodology, workflow, JavaScript, visualizations, and interactivity on this page were created by Jay Cordeira (jcordeira@ucsd.edu) with support provided by Brian Kawzenuk (bkawzenuk@ucsd.edu). Please direct any questions you might have to either of them.

Acknowledgment:
The watershed forecast tools on this page were originally developed to support the California Atmospheric River (AR) Program with funding provided by the California Department of Water Resources during Phase 1 of the Program (award #4600010378) and during Phase II of the Program (award (#4600013361). Further development of these tools to expand the domain into the Pacific Northwest and added functionality focusing on watersheds involved with Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) has been supported by a combination of the California AR program and funding provided by the U.S. Army Corps of Enginners supporting FIRO (Phase 2) at CW3E (award W912HZ-19-2-0023).

Ongoing development of this webpage, to include all HUC-8 watersheds west of the Continental Divide is underway. This expanstion is supported by projects in collaboration with the NOAA Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology (CIROH) and donors to the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.

Last updated 12/1/22.