AR Landfall Tool Forecast Verification

The products are provided “as is” and are intended for research purposes only (disclaimer). All products on this page are considered experimental.

Top panel: Forecast probability of atmospheric river (AR) conditions at the selected grid point from ECMWF or GEFS ensemble forecasts. AR probability is defined as the fraction of ensemble members exceeding the specified Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT) threshold at each location and valid time. The x-axis shows forecast valid dates (twice daily), while the y-axis shows forecast lead time out to 15 days in 12-hour increments.

Bottom panel: Time series of IVT magnitude at the same grid point from the control forecast, shown every 12 hours for each valid date at the 00-hour lead.

Select a point on the map or use the up/down arrow keys to see forecast verification for that location. Use the date menus, buttons, or right/left arrow keys to select a different date range of valid times. Menu options show the latest valid time in the plot. Additional locations are available in the map by selecting different transect options.