CW3E AR Update: 15 March Outlook

March 15, 2018

Click here for a pdf of this information.

A potentially moderate strength atmospheric river is forecast to impact Southern California

  • An AR is currently forecast to impact Southern California on 21 and 22 March 2018
  • Some GFS ensemble members are indicating that this AR could be moderate strength (IVT >500 m-1 s-1)
  • There is currently large uncertainty pertaining to the magnitude and duration of this event
  • CW3E’s high resolution West-WRF model suggests this event is capable of producing 2-4 inches of precipitation over portions of Southern California

Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of 48-180 hour GFS forecast

Valid 0600 UTC 17 March – 1800 UTC 22 March 2018






Summary provided by C. Hecht, F.M. Ralph, B. Kawzenuk, and J. Cordeira; 12:30 PM PT Thursday 15 March 2018

*Outlook products are considered experimental