CW3E AR Update: 19 February 2021 Outlook

February 19, 2021

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Landfalling AR to impact the Pacific Northwest this weekend into early next week

  • An AR is forecast to make landfall across Washington and northern Oregon early Sunday morning
  • AR 2 conditions (based on the Ralph et al. 2019 AR Scale) are possible in coastal Washington and northern coastal Oregon
  • More than 5 inches of total precipitation (locally > 7 inches) are forecast in the Olympic Mountains and North Cascades during the next 5 days
  • Rising freezing levels in association with this AR will likely result in rain-on-snow in areas that have recently received significant snowfall
  • The combination of near-saturated soil conditions, heavy rain, and melting snow may lead to flooding at lower elevations in western Washington

Click images to see loops of GFS IVT & IWV forecasts

Valid 1200 UTC 19 February – 1200 UTC 23 February 2021








Summary provided by C. Castellano, J. Kalansky, B. Kawzenuk, N. Oakley, and F. M. Ralph; 19 February 2021

*Outlook products are considered experimental