CW3E AR Update: 03 June 2022 Outlook
June 3, 2022
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Atmospheric River to Bring Precipitation to Portions of Northern California and Oregon
- An atmospheric river of intensity AR3 on the Ralph et al. (2019) AR scale is forecast to make landfall along the coast of Northern California and Oregon.
- The AR will initially make landfall in Oregon, then slide down the coast and eventually dissipate over Northern California over the next three days.
- This event will primarily bring precipitation to the higher elevations over far Northern California, western Oregon, and western Washington, with more than 3 inches possible in some areas.
- Compared to the 12Z GFS, the 12Z ECMWF is forecasting higher precipitation totals over the 3-day event in the Northern California Coast Ranges and southern Cascades in Oregon.
- Precipitation associated with this AR3 has been classified by the NWS WPC within the Excessive Rainfall Outlook, which highlights a marginal risk of flash flooding to occur in the region of this event.
- This AR will bring much needed late-season precipitation to regions currently experiencing Extreme/Severe drought conditions, with the added benefit of reduced wildfire conditions for a short period of time.
- High intensity AR3 events are not frequent this time of year. For example, in Bodega Bay (North of San Francisco), between 1980 to 2017 there were only ~25 days with AR3 conditions during the month of June.
Click images to see loops of GFS IVT & IWV forecasts
Valid 1200 UTC 3 June – 1200 UTC 6 June 2022
Summary provided by S. Bartlett, C. Castellano, C. Hecht, S. Roj, J. Kalansky, and F. M. Ralph; 3 June 2022
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*Outlook products are considered experimental