CW3E Winter Storm Update: 13 February 2026 Outlook

February 13, 2026

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Multiple Storms to Bring Rain and Mountain Snow to California

  • Multiple mid-level troughs are forecast to propagate southward and deepen near the US West Coast over the next several days, bringing unsettled weather to California.
  • A weak atmospheric river (AR) is forecast to develop downstream of the first trough and bring a brief period of AR conditions to portions of central and southern California on Mon 16 Feb.
  • About 70% of West-WRF ensemble members are forecasting an AR 1 or greater (based on the Ralph et al. 2019 AR Scale) over San Diego County, but there is considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of peak IVT.
  • While moisture in the vicinity of the second trough is forecast to be more limited, strong low-to-midlevel west-southwesterly flow may lead to the development of weak AR conditions along the California coast.
  • The NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is forecasting at least 3–7 inches of total precipitation over the Sierra Nevada, California Coast Ranges, and Transverse Ranges during the next 7 days.
  • Marginal risk excessive rainfall outlooks (EROs) have been issued for coastal California from the Bay Area southward Mon 16 Feb into early Wed 18 Feb due to the potential for heavy rainfall from both storms.
  • There is substantial uncertainty in forecast precipitation over southern California, likely due to uncertainty in the duration of the AR during the first storm, as well as the evolution of the second trough and associated corridor of enhanced moisture transport.
  • Relatively low freezing levels will allow for widespread significant snowfall across the Sierra Nevada, particularly during the second storm. By Thu 19 Feb, several feet of snow are possible above 5,000 feet in Sierra Nevada, as well as in the highest elevations of the San Bernardino Mountains.
  • Given the recent extended period of dry conditions, precipitation from these storms will likely be beneficial, especially over the northern and central Sierra Nevada where snowpack is currently running well-below normal.
  • Stay tuned to river/stream forecasts from the CNRFC, as well as NWS watches, warnings, and advisories.

Click images to see loops of West-WRF 500-hPa Geopotential Height/Vorticity and IVT/SLP forecasts

Valid 0000 UTC 13 February 2026 – 0000 UTC 20 February 2026

Summary provided by C. Castellano, J. Kalansky, M. Steen, and M. Warner; 13 February 2026

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*Outlook products are considered experimental

For any unfamiliar terms, please refer to the American Meteorological Society Glossary.