Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations: Screening Process

Stage A is a rapid, high-level filter designed to eliminate sites with prohibitive barriers to FIRO before investing in deeper evaluation. Water managers complete a brief questionnaire through a USACE web portal, answering foundational questions about site conditions, including whether the dam has a controlled outlet and whether a Water Control Plan is in place. A high-level evaluation of forecast skill (how accurate forecasts are at a given location) is also completed at this stage, assessing precipitation forecast skill at lead times necessary for operational decision-making at each site. Any site with one or more prohibitive barriers does not progress to Stage B.

Stage B is a more detailed assessment of FIRO suitability for sites. Using the same web portal, water managers complete a multi-dimensional questionnaire that weighs the potential benefits of FIRO against the estimated effort required to implement it. The five dimensions evaluated are:

1. Perceived need: Could FIRO help address an operational or management challenge at this site?
2. Collaboration: Are the resources and stakeholder relationships in place to support FIRO?
3. Hydraulics and operations: Are operational conditions compatible with FIRO implementation?
4. Environmental: Are there environmental complications or opportunities relevant to FIRO?
5. Forecast skill: Is forecast skill sufficient at the lead times required for FIRO at this site?

Stage C is a structured discussion between USACE District Water Management staff and FIRO experts to review Stage B outcomes and determine the most appropriate next steps for each site. It ensures that screening results are interpreted in the context of local knowledge and priorities before screening results are finalized. The outcome of the screening process is a site assessment report with FIRO suitability scoring across each dimension and a recommended course of action.