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CW3E AR Landfall Tool Graphics

The purpose of this website is to catalog the different types of AR Landfall Tool forecast graphics produced by CW3E. The images below are all current forecast graphics with detailed figured captions.
1. Coastal 16-day AR Landfall Tool
This version of the AR Landfall Tool illustrates 3-h forecasts of the likelihood of AR conditions along the West Coast of North America out to 16 days. The likihood of AR conditions (shaded as a fraction from zero to one) is derived from the number of NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) ensemble members with an IVT magnitude >250 kg/m/s *divided by* the total number of ensemble members. The NCEP-GFS Ensemble has 20 ensemble members, plus the control forecast. The left panel is set up as forecast time increasing *from right to left* along the x axis and latitude along the coast (shown by black dots in the right panel) increasing along the y axis. The bars in the right panel depict the number of confident hours any given latitude is forecasted to experience AR conditions: gray bars indicate the numbers of hours >50%, black bars indicate the number of hours >75%, and red bars indicate the number of hours >99%.

Alternate versions include: IVT>150 kg/m/s, IVT>500 kg/m/s, and IVT>750 kg/m/s.
Click image to enlarge.
2. Inland 16-day AR Landfall Tool
This version of the AR Landfall Tool is identical to the first version (#1 above), except the locations used to derive the likihood of AR conditions is located inland of the Cascade and Sierra Crest.

Alternate versions include: IVT>150 kg/m/s, IVT>500 kg/m/s, and IVT>750 kg/m/s.
Click image to enlarge.
3. Coastal and Inland 16-day IVT magnitudes
These versions of the AR Landfall Tool, for locations along the coast or inland, depict the IVT magnitude (kg/m/s; shaded) either from the NCEP-GFS Ensemble control forecast or from the NCEP-GFS ensemble mean forecast. Black bars in the right-most panel now depict the the total 16-d time-integrated IVT magnitude. The image shown at right is the NCEP-GFS control forecast.

Alternate versions include: Coastal Ensemble Mean, Inland Control, and Inland Ensemble Mean.
Click image to enlarge.
4. 7-day AR Landfall Tool
The AR Landfall Tool graphics are also generated for the 7-day forecast period. These graphics are included for both the coastal and inland transects and are only created for the probabilistic information (i.e., not the ensemble mean nor the control IVT magnitudes). The right-most panel of these graphics includes the same "number of hours with probabilities >50% ,>75%, and >99%" and also color-codes the dots along the coast (or inland) based on whether or not those number of hours is greater than 24 hours. The image shown at right is the 7-d AR Landfall Tool for coastal IVT probabilities >250 kg/m/s.

Alternate versions include: Coastal 150, Coastal 500, Coastal 750, Inland 150, Inland 500, Inland 750.
Click image to enlarge.
5. Enhanced 7-day AR Landfall Tool
The enhanced
Click image to enlarge.