Predictions and Projections

Develop prototype techniques to improve extreme event predictions and projections – from short-term (days) to medium range (weeks), sub seasonal (roughly 2-6 weeks) and beyond (e.g., seasonal)

• Run a real-time, high-resolution version of the WRF weather model optimized for ARs and the West
• Explore tropical-extratropical interactions (e.g., Madden-Julian Oscillation) and role of ocean conditions (e.g., El Nino Southern Oscillation)
• Decision support tools for resource managers dealing with issues from hours to seasons to decades
• Use rainfall categories to improve communication and detection of large-scale changes in extremes