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AR Scale Forecasts |
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The dots on the maps below represent the maximum forecasted AR Scale at each point over the next seven days from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS; left) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (right). For more information on this product click here to view an overview video. |
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GEFS Coastal |
GEFS Foothills |
ECMWF Coastal |
ECMWF Foothills |
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Top left: The plume diagram represents the integrated water vapor transport (IVT) forecast for each of the individual ensemble models (thin gray lines), the unperturbed GFS or ECMWF control forecast (black line), the ensemble mean (green line), and plus or minus one standard deviation from the ensemble mean (red line (+), blue line (-), and gray shading). Colored shading represents the AR scale forecast for the given time, shaded according to scale, calculated using the model control forecast. Bottom left: Shading represents the probability of AR Scale conditions at the given location calculated by the number of ensemble members predicting a given AR Scale at each forecast lead time. Top right: Dots on the map represent the maximum AR Scale forecast from the GFS or ECMWF control member at that grid point for the next seven days. Colored shading represents the GFS or ECMWF 7-day accumulated precipitation forecast. The enlarged dot indicates the location the other plots in this diagram are representative of. Bottom right: AR Scale magnitude and timing calculated for each GEFS or ECMWF EPS ensemble members shaded according to scale. Values in shading represent the magnitude and timing of maximum IVT during each forecasted AR. Gray shading in each panel represents IVT >250 (kg m-1s-1) for a duration less than 24 hours. For more information on this product click here to view an overview video. | |||
Plot Information:NWS Radar Reflectivity: 2D merged reflectivity field over the continental U.S. for the past 60 minutes in 2-minute time steps. High reflectivity values indicate areas of intense precipitation (colorbar on the left). The time slider buttons below the map control the animation. The data is updated every 2 minutes and is provided by NCEP.Snow-Level Radar:Time-height analysis of doppler vertical velocity or reflectivity (shading) and snow level (circles; derived from radar bright band when bright band precipitation is present). Table provides snow level height in feet and meters as well as surface temperature. Bottom plot shows radar signal to noise ratio. Each plot shows the previous 48 hours of data with time moving from left to right. Data are updated each hour and are provided by NOAA PSL. Disdrometer: The top panel shows a scatter plot of rain intensity (mm/h) and the middle panel shows the radar reflectivity (dBZ). For the top two panels, the points are shaded according to the precipitation class determined by the disdrometer (see legend). The bottom panel shows the drop size distribution: the volume equivalent diameter (mm) is on the vertical axis, while each bin is shaded by the drop size frequency, which is expressed as a spectral number density (log scale). Measurements are recorded every 10 seconds. Data are updated each hour and provided by CW3E, for more information visit: https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/cw3e_observations_disdrometers/. For an archive of processed 5 minute data and images click here. Microrain Radars: The top panel shows reflectivity shaded by color and the bottom panel shows vertical velocity. MRR data are processed using an algorithm based on Maahn and Kollias 2012 but modified to improve the representation of heavy rain. Black circles represent the snow level indicated by a radar bright band when bright band precipitation is present. The bar at the bottom of each chart shows the precipitation type (bright band:light gray, hybrid:medium gray, or non-bright band:dark gray). Both the snow level and precipitation type are derived using an algorithm modified from White et al. 2003. Raw spectra measurements are collected every 10 seconds. Each plot shows the current day's data, with time moving from left to right. Data are updated each hour and provided by CW3E, for more information visit: https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/cw3e_observations_mrrs/. For an archive of processed 5 minute data and images click here. Surface Meteorology/Soil Moisture: Surface meteorology and soil moisture site deployed by CW3E. Plots include temperature, relative humidity, mean sea level pressure, solar radiation, wind, precipitation, and soil moisture and temperature at various depths (not all variables available at all stations). Data are updated each hour and provided by CW3E, for more information visit: https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/cw3e_observations_surfacemet/. Click the following links for an archive of raw data or images. ARO Flux Obs: Plots show the most recent 48 hours of observations from "Atmospheric River Observatories" as provided by NOAA PSL. Top panel shows observed winds colored by speed and the freezing level (black dots). Middle panel shows integrated water vapor (cyan line) and upslope wind speed (purple bars). Bottom panel shows upslope integrated water vapor flux (blue line), and hourly precipitation (green or red bars) with time moving from right to left. For more information on these plots, please visit here. Precipitation, SWE, Pressure, Temperature, and Wind: Surface meteorological observations from various sites. Each site contains one or more of these variables in either daily or hourly resolution. Plots are updated hourly and all data are from CDEC. |
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F. Martin Ralph, PhD., Director Center For Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) |
CW3E Partners California Department of Water Resources |
More Information Return to CW3E homepage |