Current Conditions Overview
The probability CW3E AR Landfall Tool displays the likelihood and timing of AR conditions at each point on the map in a line along the U.S. West Coast or inland derived from the NCEP GEFS model over the next 16 days. The probability of AR conditions represents the number of ensemble members that predict IVT to be greater than the chosen threshold at the given location and time. These plots are created by Jason Cordeira, Plymouth State University. See more here.
Time-integrated IVT is the temporal sum of the six-hourly IVT for the 72-hour period ending at the forecast time shown. Magnitude is shaded and direction indicated by vectors in units of kg m-1 divided by a factor of 107 from the 0.25° Global Forecast System (GFS) model. See more here.