Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations

FIRO is a reservoir-operations strategy that better informs decisions to retain or release water by integrating additional flexibility in operation policies and rules with enhanced monitoring and improved weather and water forecasts (American Meteorological Society; 2020).

FIRO is being developed and tested as a collaborative effort in the Russian River Basin (Lake Mendocino, Lake Sonoma), the Santa Ana River Basin (Prado Dam, Seven Oaks Dam), the Yuba-Feather River Basins and the Green River (Howard Hanson Dam) that engages experts and stakeholders in civil engineering, hydrology, meteorology, biology, economics and climate from several federal, state and local, universities and others. There is significant interest and support for developing FIRO at other appropriate locations in the Western U.S. and elsewhere.
Overview
Process
News
Projects
FIRO Colloquium
FIRO Workshop
Reservoirs-plus-Snowpack Water Storage in the Sierra Nevada (04/19/2024)
Up, up and away... for the sake of science: Weather balloon launches in Yuba County capture storm information (12/20/2023)
Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations - America's Engineers (12/14/2023)
Hydro Dams Are Struggling to Handle the World’s Intensifying Weather (10/12/2023)
Epic snow from all those atmospheric rivers in the West is starting to melt, and the flood danger is rising (4/17/2023)
CW3E Publication Notice: Multi-Model Subseasonal Prediction Skill Assessment of Water Vapor Transport Associated with Atmospheric Rivers over the Western U.S. (4/10/2023)
CW3E Publication Notice: Deep Learning Forecast Uncertainty for Precipitation over Western US (03/24/2023)
CW3E 2022-23 Winter (Dec – Feb) Recap (03/8/2023)
CW3E Publication Notice: Drought Attribution Studies and Water Resources Management (02/28/2023)
CW3E and Yuba Water Agency Bring Science to Life for Students at Browns Valley Elementary School in Yuba County (02/14/2023)
CW3E Publication Notice: Evaluation of Subseasonal Drought Forecast Skill over the Coastal Western U.S. (02/10/2023)
CW3E Publication Notice: Impacts of Northeastern Pacific Buoy Surface Pressure Observations (02/08/2023)
Lake Mendocino Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations Awarded ASCE Region 9 Water Project (03/24/22)
How can information about atmospheric rivers optimize reservoir operations? - American Society of Civil Engineers (02/24/22)
Marking 25 Years Since the New Year's Flood of 1997 in Yuba County | Yuba Water Agency, CA (01/05/22)
FIRO Featured in AWRA Impact Magazine; Dec 2021 Issue (01/03/22)
How the West can Survive Smaller Snowpacks and Bigger Atmospheric Rivers - Maven's Notebook (12/15/21)
CW3E Publication Notice: Better Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasts for Water Management (06/25/21)
Estimating Benefits of Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO): Lake Mendocino Case-Study and Transferable Decision Support Tool (02/11/21)
Data Science Post-Doctoral Position at CW3E (12/17/20)
Lake Mendocino is low, but no water shortages forecast, thanks to new tech (12/09/20)
Past Yuba Water Agency General Manager Curt Aikens Honored with Association of California Water Agencies’ Lifetime Achievement Award (12/03/20)
The Latest on Yuba-Feather Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (10/23/20)
How DWR Research is Improving Forecasting for California's Variable Climate (06/23/20)
Odds of Reaching 100% Normal Water Year Precipitation - June Update (06/01/20)
CW3E Publication Notice: Four Atmospheric Circulation Regimes Over the North Pacific and Their Relationship to California Precipitation on Daily to Seasonal Timescales (05/26/20)
CW3E Publication Notice: West Coast Forecast Challenges and Development of Atmospheric River Reconnaissance (05/13/20)
CW3E Publication Notice: Recent Changes in United States Extreme 3-Day Precipitation Using the R-CAT Scale (05/06/20)
Odds of Reaching 100% Normal Water Year Precipitation - May Update (05/01/20)
Distribution of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers over the U.S. West Coast during Water Year 2020: October through March Update (04/08/20)
CW3E Publication Notice: Detection Uncertainty Matters for Understanding Atmospheric Rivers (04/02/20)
Odds of Reaching 100% Normal Water Year Precipitation - April Update (04/01/20)
CW3E Publication Notice: Responses and impacts of atmospheric rivers to climate change (03/24/20)
March Rains Fall Short of a Miracle but a Major Boost for Southern California, Some Help for the Sierras (03/19/20)
New Forecast Tool Looks Three Weeks Ahead for Chances of Atmospheric Rivers (03/12/20)
Odds of Reaching 100% Normal Water Year Precipitation - March Update (03/01/20)
Odds of Reaching 100% Normal Water Year Precipitation - February Update (02/01/20)
CW3E Publication Notice: Current and Emerging Developments in Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction (01/31/20)
CW3E Publication Notice: Skill of rain-snow level forecasts for landfalling atmospheric rivers: A multi-model model assessment using California’s network of vertically profiling radars (01/30/20)
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Air Force, NOAA to Fly into Atmospheric River Storms Over Pacific Ocean this Winter (01/23/20)
CW3E Publication Notice: Tracking Atmospheric Rivers Globally: Spatial Distributions and Temporal Evolution of Life Cycle Characteristics (01/22/20)
Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations Town Hall Held at the American Meteorological Society 100th Annual Meeting (01/14/20)
CW3E Publication Notice: Ridging Associated with Drought Across the Western and Southwestern United States: Characteristics, Trends, and Predictability Sources (01/07/20)
CW3E Publication Notice: A Case Study of the Physical Processes Associated with the Atmospheric River Initial Condition Sensitivity from an Adjoint Model (01/06/20)
CW3E Publication Notice: Training the Next Generation of Researchers in the Science and Application of Atmospheric Rivers (01/03/20)
Odds of Reaching 100% Normal Water Year Precipitation - January Update (01/01/20)
Yuba Water Partners With Scripps, DWR ON New Atmospheric River Research (12/23/19)
CW3E Field Team Starts Meteorology and Radar Instrument Installations in Feather and Yuba Watersheds (11/22/19)
Water Education Foundation Article Highlights Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (11/21/19)
Sixth Annual FIRO Workshop (08/12/19)
The AR Colloquium Kicks-Off (06/26/19)
CW3E Publication Notice: A critical examination of a newly proposed interhemispheric teleconnection to Southwestern US winter precipitation (06/23/19)
FIRO Panel Held at 2019 Annual California Water and Environmental Modeling Forum (05/01/19)
AR Recon 2019 - Drifting Buoy Project Highlighted in ECMWF Spring 2019 Newsletter (04/19/19)
Odds of Reaching 100% Water Year Precipitation - April Update (04/11/19)
CW3E AR Update: 9 April Summary (04/09/19)
Water Year 2019: March Atmospheric Rivers (04/09/19)
CW3E Publication Notice: Contrasting Local and Long-Range Transported Warm Ice-Nucleating Particles During an Atmospheric River in Coastal California, USA (04/05/19)
Odds of Reaching 100% Water Year Precipitation - March Update (03/08/19)
Water Year 2019: February Atmospheric Rivers (03/07/19)
CW3E AR Update: 25-27 February Post Event Summary (02/28/19)
Water Year 2019: January Atmospheric Rivers (02/18/19)
CW3E AR Update: 13-15 February Summary (02/15/19)
Odds of Reaching 100% Water Year Precipitation - February Update (02/08/19)
CW3E Releases New Scale to Characterize Strength and Impacts of Atmospheric Rivers (02/05/19)
CW3E AR Update: 02 February 2019 Post Event Summary (02/05/19)
CW3E Fieldwork Season Begins (01/23/19)
Water Year 2019: December Atmospheric Rivers (01/18/19)
Odds of Reaching 100% Water Year Precipitation - January Update (01/10/19)
CW3E Publication Notice: Hourly Analyses of the Large Storms and Atmospheric Rivers that Provide Most of California’s Precipitation in Only 10-100 Hours per Year (01/02/19)
Odds of Reaching 100% Water Year Precipitation - December Update (12/05/18)
FIRO Highlighted at Kansas Governor's Conference on the Future of Water in Kansas (11/15/18)
Army Corps of Engineers approves request to allow more winter storage in Lake Mendocino (11/08/18)
Odds of Reaching 100% Water Year Precipitation - November Update (11/08/18)
Distribution of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers on the U.S. West Coast During Water Year 2018: End of Water Year Summary (10/08/18)
CW3E Publication Notice: ARTMIP-Early Start Comparison of Atmospheric River Detection Tools: How Many Atmospheric Rivers Hit Northern California’s Russian River Watershed? (09/17/18)
CW3E Publication Notice: Assessment of Numerical Weather Prediction Model Reforecasts of the Occurrence, Intensity, and Location of Atmospheric Rivers along the West Coast of North America (08/24/18)
CW3E Publication Notice: Empirical Return Periods of the Most Intense Vapor Transports during Historical Atmospheric River Landfalls on the U.S. West Coast (08/21/18)
5th Annual Workshop on Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations for Lake Mendocino (08/13/18)
Russian River Drought Readiness Report (08/07/18)
2nd International Atmospheric Rivers Conference, June 25-28, 2018 (06/22/18)
Odds of Reaching 100% Water Year Precipitation - June Update (06/08/18)
Odds of Reaching 100% Water Year Precipitation - May Update (05/02/18)
Distribution of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers on the U.S. West Coast During Water Year 2018 (05/01/18)
Odds of Reaching 100% Water Year Precipitation - April Update (04/10/18)
CW3E AR Update: 04 April 2018 Outlook (04/04/18)
CW3E AR Update: 03 April 2018 Outlook (04/03/18)
CW3E AR Update: 02 April 2018 Outlook (04/02/18)
International Atmospheric Rivers Conference 2018 – Abstract Submission and Registration Open Now! (03/27/18)
CW3E AR Update: 23 March 2018 Post Event Summary (03/23/18)
CW3E AR Update: 22 March 2018 Outlook (03/22/18)
CW3E AR Update: 21 March 2018 Outlook (03/21/18)
CW3E AR Update: 20 March 2018 Outlook (03/20/18)
CW3E AR Update: 19 March 2018 Outlook (03/19/18)
CW3E AR Update: 16 March 2018 Outlook (03/16/18)
CW3E AR Update: 15 March 2018 Outlook (03/15/18)
CW3E AR Update: 7 March 2018 Outlook (03/07/18)
CW3E Publication Notice: High-Elevation Evapotranspiration Estimates During Drought: Using Streamflow and NASA Airborne Snow Observatory SWE Observations to Close the Upper Tuolumne River Basin Water Balance (03/05/18)
CW3E Launches Near Real-Time AR and QPF Forecast Verification Website (02/13/18)
CW3E Publication Notice: Genesis, Pathways, and Terminations of Intense Global Water Vapor Transport in Association with Large-Scale Climate Patterns (02/13/18)
Atmospheric River Reconnaissance - 2018 Underway (02/08/18)
CW3E Publication Notice: An Inter-comparison Between Reanalysis and Dropsonde Observations of the Total Water Vapor Transport in Individual Atmospheric Rivers (02/02/18)
CW3E Represented at the National Council for Science and the Environment National Conference and Global Forum (01/29/18)
CW3E Launches Interactive AR Rain Versus Snow Forecast Maps and Watershed Plots (01/26/18)
CW3E AR Update: 8-10 January 2018 Post Event Summary (01/11/18)
CW3E Fieldwork Season Begins (01/10/18)
Odds of Reaching 100% of Normal Precipitation for Water Year 2018 (January Update) (01/08/18)
CW3E AR Update: 8 January 2018 Outlook (01/08/18)
CW3E AR Update: 3 January 2018 Outlook (01/03/18)
CW3E Director Featured in Weather Channel Article on ARs (12/22/17)
Hunting Atmospheric Rivers; UC San Diego Scientists Preparing to Capture Data From Critical Source of California's Water Supply (12/15/17)
Odds of Reaching 100% of Normal Precipitation for Water Year 2018 (December Update) (12/08/17)
CW3E Publication Notice: GPM Satellite Radar Measurements of Precipitation and Freezing Level in Atmospheric Rivers: Comparison with Ground-Based Radars and Reanalyses (12/06/17)
CW3E Publication Notice: Flood runoff in relation to water vapor transport by atmospheric rivers over the western United States (12/01/17)
CW3E AR Update: 20 November 2017 Outlook and Summary (11/20/17)
CW3E AR Update: 17 November 2017 Outlook and Summary (11/17/17)
Lake Mendocino Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations Steering Committee Submit Major Deviation Request (11/15/17)
CW3E AR Update: 14 November 2017 Outlook (11/14/17)
CW3E AR Update: 8 November 2017 Outlook (11/08/17)
Atmospheric Rivers Highlighted in the U.S. Fourth National Climate Assessment (11/06/17)
CW3E AR Update: 3 November 2017 Outlook (11/03/17)
FIRO Steering Committee Co-Chairs Provide In-depth Briefing to USACE (11/02/17)
CW3E AR Update: 31 October 2017 Outlook (10/31/17)
CW3E AR Update: 18-23 October 2017 Summary (10/26/17)
CW3E AR Update: 18 October 2017 Outlook (10/18/17)
Sonoma County Water Agency Board of Directors Chairwoman, Zane, testifies on FIRO before Senate Committee (08/02/17)
American Geophysical Union Publishes Collection of Atmospheric River Publications in Geophysical Research Letters (07/27/17)
CW3E Begins Installation of Instrumentation in the Russian River Watershed (07/07/17)
CW3E Participates in Western States Water Council Visit to UC Davis' Bodega Marine Lab (07/01/17)
CW3E AR Update: 06 June 2017 Outlook (06/06/17)
CW3E AR Update: 05 June 2017 Outlook (06/05/17)
CW3E Update: Flood Risk From Snow Melt (05/23/17)
Atmospheric Rivers: Recent Developments and Applications in California (05/19/17)
Key California Precipitation Index Hits Record Yearly Level After Only 7 Months (04/13/17)
CW3E Publication Notice: High-Impact Hydrologic Events and Atmospheric Rivers in California: An Investigation using the NCEI Storm Events Database (04/12/17)
CW3E AR Update: 11 April 2017 Outlook (04/11/17)
How Many Atmospheric Rivers Have Hit the U.S. West Coast During the Remarkably Wet Water Year 2017? (04/06/17)
Odds of Reaching 100% Water Year Precipitation - April Update (04/06/17)
CW3E AR Update: 04 April 2017 Outlook (04/04/17)
CW3E AR Update: 16 March 2017 Outlook (03/16/17)
Odds of Reaching 100% Water Year Precipitation - Mar Update (03/08/17)
Current Winter Setting a New California-Wide Record Precipitation Accumulation (03/07/17)
CW3E AR Update: 28 February 2017 Post Event Summary and Outlook (02/28/17)
CW3E AR Update: 22 February 2017 Post Event Summary (02/22/17)
CW3E AR Update: 17 February 2017 Outlook (02/17/17)
CW3E AR Update: 16 February 2017 Outlook (02/16/17)
CW3E AR Update: 15 February 2017 Outlook (02/15/17)
CW3E AR Update: 13 February 2017 Outlook (02/13/17)
CW3E AR Update: 09 February 2017 Outlook (02/09/17)
Odds of Reaching 100% of Normal Precipitation for Water Year 2017 (February update) (02/09/17)
CW3E AR Update: 08 February 2017 Outlook (02/08/17)
CW3E AR Update: 07 February 2017 Outlook (02/07/17)
CW3E AR Update: 06 February 2017 Outlook (02/06/17)
CW3E AR Update: 01 February 2017 Outlook (02/01/17)
Water year 2017 Precipitation (01/24/17)
CW3E AR Update: 19 January 2017 Outlook (01/19/17)
CW3E AR Update: 17 January 2017 Outlook (01/17/17)
CW3E AR Update: 11 January 2017 Outlook (01/11/17)
CW3E in the News (01/10/17)
CW3E AR Update: 9 January 2017 Outlook and Summary (01/09/17)
Odds of Reaching 100% of Normal Precipitation for Water Year 2017 (January update) (01/09/17)
CW3E AR Update: 6 January 2017 Outlook (01/06/17)
CW3E AR Update: 5-10 January 2017 Outlook (01/05/17)
CW3E AR Update: 4-10 January 2017 Outlook (01/05/17)
CW3E AR Update: 23-25 December 2016 Outlook (12/22/16)
CW3E AR Update: 16 December 2016 Outlook (12/16/16)
CW3E AR Update: 15-17 December 2016 Outlook (12/15/16)
CW3E AR Update: 14-17 December 2016 Outlook (12/14/16)
CW3E AR Update: 13-17 December 2016 Outlook (12/13/16)
Odds of Reaching 100% of Normal Precipitation for Water Year 2017 (December update) (12/9/16)
CW3E AR Update: 9-13 December 2016 Outlook (12/9/16)
CW3E partners with CDWR, CGS, USGS, and WRCC to assess post-fire debris flow hazards in CA (12/2/16)
CW3E Water Year 2017 Precipitation (December Update) (12/1/16)
October 2016 Summary: Record Breaking Precipitation (11/23/16)
CW3E AR Update: Post-Event Summary: 4-9 November 2016 (11/14/16)
CW3E AR Update: 4-9 November, 2016 Outlook (11/04/16)
CW3E AR Update: Post-Event Summary: 14-17 October 2016 (10/20/16)
CW3E AR Update: 14 October 2016 Summary and Outlook (10/14/16)
CW3E AR Update: 13-15 October 2016 Outlook (10/12/16)
The First International Atmospheric Rivers Conference (08/08/16)
Congressional Briefing on “A New Frontier in Water Operations: Atmospheric Rivers, Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictions and Weather Forecasting Technology” (07/27/16)
Lake Mendocino Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) Workshop Summary (07/05/16)
CW3E AR Update – Post-Event Summary: 7-10 April 2016 (04/14/16)
Odds of reaching 100% of normal precipitation for water year 2016 in California (April update) (04/11/16)
CW3E AR Update – Outlook: 7-10 April 2016 (04/7/16)
Publication Notice: Predictability of horizontal water vapor transport relative to precipitation: Enhancing situational awareness for forecasting western U.S. extreme precipitation and flooding (3/17/16)
CW3E AR Update – Post-Event Summary: 5-6 March 2016 (03/11/16)
CW3E AR Update – Outlook: 10-11 March 2016 (03/10/16)
Odds of reaching 100% of normal precipitation for water year 2016 in California (March update). (03/10/16)
CW3E AR Update – Outlook: 5-7 March 2016 (03/04/16)
CW3E AR Update – Outlook: 3 March 2016 (03/03/16)
Odds of reaching 100% of normal precipitation for water year 2016 in California. (02/08/16)
A Preliminary Synopsis of the 5 January 2016 Atmospheric River (01/05/16)
Improving Understanding of Atmospheric Rivers: Legislation Authorized ... (10/13/15)
California Storm of 10-12 December 2014: A Synopsis (7/10/15)
Publication Notice: Climate Change Intensification of Horizontal Water Vapor .... (6/25/15)
Atmospheric Rivers Workshop: 15-17 June 2015 (6/19/15)
"Atmospheric Rivers": Rising Interest in Science and the Media (4/25/15)
Sonoma County Water Agency (SCWA) video posted about Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) (3/4/15)
California Precipitation: summary handout (2/8/15)
First International Atmospheric Rivers Conference (12/22/14)
California Storm of 10-12 December 2014: A Preliminary Synopsis ... (12/12/14)
Short diagnosis of development of a tropic surge, cut-off low and AR features (12/2/14)
Publication Notice: Climatological Characteristics of Atmospheric Rivers ... (10/31/14)
El Nino Impacts and Outlook: October 2014 (10/29/14)
California Drought: 4th driest water year depletes reservoirs (10/01/14)
Sonoma County Water Agency (SCWA) and SIO establish a Cooperative Agreement (07/14)
Atmospheric Rivers: Drought Busters (04/17/14)
Who Rules California's Russian River? (03/31/14)
UPDATED: Researcher Mike Dettinger examines likelihood of drought end (03/21/14)
Federal Rules Complicate Water Management (02/27/14)
Scripps researchers take flight (02/24/14)
Researcher Mike Dettinger examines likelihood of drought end (02/11/14)
Atmospheric River impacting California (02/09/14)
CA Governor declares drought emergency (01/17/14)
Publication Notice: Climate link to Atmospheric Rivers (11/25/13)
Partnership with Sonoma County Water Agency (11/21/13)
CW3E Hosts Strategic Planning Meeting (10/11/13)
Dr. Ralph Addresses at Drought Response Workshop(10/11/13)
Colorado Flooding(09/17/13)
Test Beds Linking Research and Forecasting(09/10/13)