Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations

FIRO is a proposed management strategy that uses data from watershed monitoring and modern weather and water forecasting to help water managers selectively retain or release water from reservoirs in a manner that reflects current and forecasted conditions.

FIRO is being developed and tested as a collaborative effort in the Russian River Basin (Lake Mendocino) and the Santa Ana River Basin (Prado Dam) that engages experts and stakeholders in civil engineering, hydrology, meteorology, biology, economics and climate from several federal, state and local, universities and others. There is significant interest and support for developing FIRO at other appropriate locations in the Western U.S. and elsewhere.


Overview
Process
News
Lake Mendocino
Prado Dam
Yuba-Feather

Sixth Annual FIRO Workshop (08/12/19)
The AR Colloquium Kicks-Off (06/26/19)
CW3E Publication Notice: A critical examination of a newly proposed interhemispheric teleconnection to Southwestern US winter precipitation (06/23/19)
FIRO Panel Held at 2019 Annual California Water and Environmental Modeling Forum (05/01/19)
AR Recon 2019 - Drifting Buoy Project Highlighted in ECMWF Spring 2019 Newsletter (04/19/19)
Odds of Reaching 100% Water Year Precipitation - April Update (04/11/19)
CW3E AR Update: 9 April Summary (04/09/19)
Water Year 2019: March Atmospheric Rivers (04/09/19)
CW3E Publication Notice: Contrasting Local and Long-Range Transported Warm Ice-Nucleating Particles During an Atmospheric River in Coastal California, USA (04/05/19)
Odds of Reaching 100% Water Year Precipitation - March Update (03/08/19)
Water Year 2019: February Atmospheric Rivers (03/07/19)
CW3E AR Update: 25-27 February Post Event Summary (02/28/19)
Water Year 2019: January Atmospheric Rivers (02/18/19)
CW3E AR Update: 13-15 February Summary (02/15/19)
Odds of Reaching 100% Water Year Precipitation - February Update (02/08/19)
CW3E Releases New Scale to Characterize Strength and Impacts of Atmospheric Rivers (02/05/19)
CW3E AR Update: 02 February 2019 Post Event Summary (02/05/19)
CW3E Fieldwork Season Begins (01/23/19)
Water Year 2019: December Atmospheric Rivers (01/18/19)
Odds of Reaching 100% Water Year Precipitation - January Update (01/10/19)
CW3E Publication Notice: Hourly Analyses of the Large Storms and Atmospheric Rivers that Provide Most of California’s Precipitation in Only 10-100 Hours per Year (01/02/19)

Odds of Reaching 100% Water Year Precipitation - December Update (12/05/18)
FIRO Highlighted at Kansas Governor's Conference on the Future of Water in Kansas (11/15/18)
Army Corps of Engineers approves request to allow more winter storage in Lake Mendocino (11/08/18)
Odds of Reaching 100% Water Year Precipitation - November Update (11/08/18)
Distribution of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers on the U.S. West Coast During Water Year 2018: End of Water Year Summary (10/08/18)
CW3E Publication Notice: ARTMIP-Early Start Comparison of Atmospheric River Detection Tools: How Many Atmospheric Rivers Hit Northern California’s Russian River Watershed? (09/17/18)
CW3E Publication Notice: Assessment of Numerical Weather Prediction Model Reforecasts of the Occurrence, Intensity, and Location of Atmospheric Rivers along the West Coast of North America (08/24/18)
CW3E Publication Notice: Empirical Return Periods of the Most Intense Vapor Transports during Historical Atmospheric River Landfalls on the U.S. West Coast (08/21/18)
5th Annual Workshop on Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations for Lake Mendocino (08/13/18)
Russian River Drought Readiness Report (08/07/18)
2nd International Atmospheric Rivers Conference, June 25-28, 2018 (06/22/18)
Odds of Reaching 100% Water Year Precipitation - June Update (06/08/18)
Odds of Reaching 100% Water Year Precipitation - May Update (05/02/18)
Distribution of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers on the U.S. West Coast During Water Year 2018 (05/01/18)
Odds of Reaching 100% Water Year Precipitation - April Update (04/10/18)
CW3E AR Update: 04 April 2018 Outlook (04/04/18)
CW3E AR Update: 03 April 2018 Outlook (04/03/18)
CW3E AR Update: 02 April 2018 Outlook (04/02/18)
International Atmospheric Rivers Conference 2018 – Abstract Submission and Registration Open Now! (03/27/18)
CW3E AR Update: 23 March 2018 Post Event Summary (03/23/18)
CW3E AR Update: 22 March 2018 Outlook (03/22/18)
CW3E AR Update: 21 March 2018 Outlook (03/21/18)
CW3E AR Update: 20 March 2018 Outlook (03/20/18)
CW3E AR Update: 19 March 2018 Outlook (03/19/18)
CW3E AR Update: 16 March 2018 Outlook (03/16/18)
CW3E AR Update: 15 March 2018 Outlook (03/15/18)
CW3E AR Update: 7 March 2018 Outlook (03/07/18)
CW3E Publication Notice: High-Elevation Evapotranspiration Estimates During Drought: Using Streamflow and NASA Airborne Snow Observatory SWE Observations to Close the Upper Tuolumne River Basin Water Balance (03/05/18)
CW3E Launches Near Real-Time AR and QPF Forecast Verification Website (02/13/18)
CW3E Publication Notice: Genesis, Pathways, and Terminations of Intense Global Water Vapor Transport in Association with Large-Scale Climate Patterns (02/13/18)
Atmospheric River Reconnaissance - 2018 Underway (02/08/18)
CW3E Publication Notice: An Inter-comparison Between Reanalysis and Dropsonde Observations of the Total Water Vapor Transport in Individual Atmospheric Rivers (02/02/18)
CW3E Represented at the National Council for Science and the Environment National Conference and Global Forum (01/29/18)
CW3E Launches Interactive AR Rain Versus Snow Forecast Maps and Watershed Plots (01/26/18)
CW3E AR Update: 8-10 January 2018 Post Event Summary (01/11/18)
CW3E Fieldwork Season Begins (01/10/18)
Odds of Reaching 100% of Normal Precipitation for Water Year 2018 (January Update) (01/08/18)
CW3E AR Update: 8 January 2018 Outlook (01/08/18)
CW3E AR Update: 3 January 2018 Outlook (01/03/18)

CW3E Director Featured in Weather Channel Article on ARs (12/22/17)
Hunting Atmospheric Rivers; UC San Diego Scientists Preparing to Capture Data From Critical Source of California's Water Supply (12/15/17)
Odds of Reaching 100% of Normal Precipitation for Water Year 2018 (December Update) (12/08/17)
CW3E Publication Notice: GPM Satellite Radar Measurements of Precipitation and Freezing Level in Atmospheric Rivers: Comparison with Ground-Based Radars and Reanalyses (12/06/17)
CW3E Publication Notice: Flood runoff in relation to water vapor transport by atmospheric rivers over the western United States (12/01/17)
CW3E AR Update: 20 November 2017 Outlook and Summary (11/20/17)
CW3E AR Update: 17 November 2017 Outlook and Summary (11/17/17)
Lake Mendocino Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations Steering Committee Submit Major Deviation Request (11/15/17)
CW3E AR Update: 14 November 2017 Outlook (11/14/17)
CW3E AR Update: 8 November 2017 Outlook (11/08/17)
Atmospheric Rivers Highlighted in the U.S. Fourth National Climate Assessment (11/06/17)
CW3E AR Update: 3 November 2017 Outlook (11/03/17)
FIRO Steering Committee Co-Chairs Provide In-depth Briefing to USACE (11/02/17)
CW3E AR Update: 31 October 2017 Outlook (10/31/17)
CW3E AR Update: 18-23 October 2017 Summary (10/26/17)
CW3E AR Update: 18 October 2017 Outlook (10/18/17)
Sonoma County Water Agency Board of Directors Chairwoman, Zane, testifies on FIRO before Senate Committee (08/02/17)
American Geophysical Union Publishes Collection of Atmospheric River Publications in Geophysical Research Letters (07/27/17)
CW3E Begins Installation of Instrumentation in the Russian River Watershed (07/07/17)
CW3E Participates in Western States Water Council Visit to UC Davis' Bodega Marine Lab (07/01/17)
CW3E AR Update: 06 June 2017 Outlook (06/06/17)
CW3E AR Update: 05 June 2017 Outlook (06/05/17)
CW3E Update: Flood Risk From Snow Melt (05/23/17)
Atmospheric Rivers: Recent Developments and Applications in California (05/19/17)
Key California Precipitation Index Hits Record Yearly Level After Only 7 Months (04/13/17)
CW3E Publication Notice: High-Impact Hydrologic Events and Atmospheric Rivers in California: An Investigation using the NCEI Storm Events Database (04/12/17)
CW3E AR Update: 11 April 2017 Outlook (04/11/17)
How Many Atmospheric Rivers Have Hit the U.S. West Coast During the Remarkably Wet Water Year 2017? (04/06/17)
Odds of Reaching 100% Water Year Precipitation - April Update (04/06/17)
CW3E AR Update: 04 April 2017 Outlook (04/04/17)
CW3E AR Update: 16 March 2017 Outlook (03/16/17)
Odds of Reaching 100% Water Year Precipitation - Mar Update (03/08/17)
Current Winter Setting a New California-Wide Record Precipitation Accumulation (03/07/17)
CW3E AR Update: 28 February 2017 Post Event Summary and Outlook (02/28/17)
CW3E AR Update: 22 February 2017 Post Event Summary (02/22/17)
CW3E AR Update: 17 February 2017 Outlook (02/17/17)
CW3E AR Update: 16 February 2017 Outlook (02/16/17)
CW3E AR Update: 15 February 2017 Outlook (02/15/17)
CW3E AR Update: 13 February 2017 Outlook (02/13/17)
CW3E AR Update: 09 February 2017 Outlook (02/09/17)
Odds of Reaching 100% of Normal Precipitation for Water Year 2017 (February update) (02/09/17)
CW3E AR Update: 08 February 2017 Outlook (02/08/17)
CW3E AR Update: 07 February 2017 Outlook (02/07/17)
CW3E AR Update: 06 February 2017 Outlook (02/06/17)
CW3E AR Update: 01 February 2017 Outlook (02/01/17)

Water year 2017 Precipitation (01/24/17)
CW3E AR Update: 19 January 2017 Outlook (01/19/17)
CW3E AR Update: 17 January 2017 Outlook (01/17/17)
CW3E AR Update: 11 January 2017 Outlook (01/11/17)
CW3E in the News (01/10/17)
CW3E AR Update: 9 January 2017 Outlook and Summary (01/09/17)
Odds of Reaching 100% of Normal Precipitation for Water Year 2017 (January update) (01/09/17)
CW3E AR Update: 6 January 2017 Outlook (01/06/17)
CW3E AR Update: 5-10 January 2017 Outlook (01/05/17)
CW3E AR Update: 4-10 January 2017 Outlook (01/05/17)

CW3E AR Update: 23-25 December 2016 Outlook (12/22/16)
CW3E AR Update: 16 December 2016 Outlook (12/16/16)
CW3E AR Update: 15-17 December 2016 Outlook (12/15/16)
CW3E AR Update: 14-17 December 2016 Outlook (12/14/16)
CW3E AR Update: 13-17 December 2016 Outlook (12/13/16)
Odds of Reaching 100% of Normal Precipitation for Water Year 2017 (December update) (12/9/16)
CW3E AR Update: 9-13 December 2016 Outlook (12/9/16)
CW3E partners with CDWR, CGS, USGS, and WRCC to assess post-fire debris flow hazards in CA (12/2/16)
CW3E Water Year 2017 Precipitation (December Update) (12/1/16)
October 2016 Summary: Record Breaking Precipitation (11/23/16)
CW3E AR Update: Post-Event Summary: 4-9 November 2016 (11/14/16)
CW3E AR Update: 4-9 November, 2016 Outlook (11/04/16)
CW3E AR Update: Post-Event Summary: 14-17 October 2016 (10/20/16)
CW3E AR Update: 14 October 2016 Summary and Outlook (10/14/16)
CW3E AR Update: 13-15 October 2016 Outlook (10/12/16)
The First International Atmospheric Rivers Conference (08/08/16)
Congressional Briefing on “A New Frontier in Water Operations: Atmospheric Rivers, Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictions and Weather Forecasting Technology” (07/27/16)
Lake Mendocino Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) Workshop Summary (07/05/16)
CW3E AR Update – Post-Event Summary: 7-10 April 2016 (04/14/16)
Odds of reaching 100% of normal precipitation for water year 2016 in California (April update) (04/11/16)
CW3E AR Update – Outlook: 7-10 April 2016 (04/7/16)
Publication Notice: Predictability of horizontal water vapor transport relative to precipitation: Enhancing situational awareness for forecasting western U.S. extreme precipitation and flooding (3/17/16)
CW3E AR Update – Post-Event Summary: 5-6 March 2016 (03/11/16)
CW3E AR Update – Outlook: 10-11 March 2016 (03/10/16)
Odds of reaching 100% of normal precipitation for water year 2016 in California (March update). (03/10/16)
CW3E AR Update – Outlook: 5-7 March 2016 (03/04/16)
CW3E AR Update – Outlook: 3 March 2016 (03/03/16)
Odds of reaching 100% of normal precipitation for water year 2016 in California. (02/08/16)
A Preliminary Synopsis of the 5 January 2016 Atmospheric River (01/05/16)