CW3E AR Update: 9-13 December 2016 Outlook
December 9, 2016
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Landfalling AR to impact California
- A moderate AR is expected to make landfall in north/central California tonight
- The AR propagates southward over the weekend bringing AR conditions to portions of southern California
- Current precipitation forecast suggests higher precipitation amounts of up to 150 mm over the Sierra Nevada Mts., while the Coastal Mts. are not expected to receive as much
- Above normal soil moisture conditions in northwestern CA suggest that conditions are primed for more of the precipitation to turn into runoff rather than be lost to moistening the soil
- Extended forecasts suggest the landfall of another AR over southern California on the 13th, but forecast confidence is currently low
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GFS forecast from 06 UTC 9 Dec – 00 UTC 13 Dec 2016, showing IVT (shading and vectors) and sea level pressure
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Summary provided by C. Hecht, and F.M. Ralph; 3 PM PT Fri 09 Dec. 2016