CW3E AR Update: 3 November 2017 Outlook

November 3, 2017

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Two systems expected to produce precipitation over the U.S. West Coast in the next week

  • AR conditions (IVT >250 kg m-1 s-1 and IWV >20 mm) are expected over most of CA over the next four days
  • While AR conditions are forecast for some locations of the USWC, this event is not necessarily an AR due to geometric and spatial structure, but could produce up to 5 inches of precipitation and some snow over the Sierra Nevada
  • A potentially strong AR is expected to make landfall over CA, OR, and WA on 8 November 2017
  • The highest amounts of precipitation are expected over the coastal ranges of CA and OR
  • The AR is currently expected to have a southerly orientation which will result in less extreme precipitation

Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of 0-180 hour GFS forecast

Valid 1200 UTC 3 November – 0000 UTC 11 November 2017








Summary provided by B. Kawzenuk, J. Kalansky, C. Hecht, and F.M. Ralph; 3 PM PT Friday 3 November 2017

*Outlook products are considered experimental