CW3E AR Update: 16 March Outlook

March 16, 2018

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Update on Atmospheric River Forecast to Impact California Next Week

  • Several changes have occurred in the forecast for the AR that may impact CA later next Week
  • GFS Ensemble members have started to converge on coastal AR conditions
  • While there is more agreement between ensemble members, there is still considerable uncertainty in onset, duration, and magnitude of AR conditions

Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of 18-180 hour GFS forecast

Valid 0600 UTC 17 March – 0000 UTC 24 March 2018








Summary provided by C. Hecht, F.M. Ralph, and B. Kawzenuk; 3 PM PT Friday 16 March 2018

*Outlook products are considered experimental