CW3E 2018 Annual Meeting
April 16-19, 2018
Seaside Forum
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
8610 Kennel Way
La Jolla, CA
This meeting is invitation only, if you are interesting in participating and have not been formally invited please contact Lillian Perry.
In creating CW3E we have taken the approach of building funded collaborations both within Scripps and UCSD, but also with other UC campuses and other institutions to better forecast and understand extreme events in the Western US. In-person interactions and collaborations with the network of scientists involved, with all the tangible and intangible benefits and outcomes that can be generated through these interactions are an important part in making the approach successful. Please make all effort possible to be here in person and to help this collaborative approach to addressing major science challenges in the region be as effective as possible. Part of the vision of CW3E was to create a community of collaboratively-oriented scientists, students, engineers and staff, and to generate the support to enable these collaborations.
The meeting will focus on research relevant to the goals and objective of FIRO and the AR Program through learning about others’ research and active engagement amongst those in attendance. The meeting will include three days of scientific presentations, panel discussions and time to develop collaborations. One of the days (April 18th), will be set aside for two half day meetings one on FIRO and one on the AR Program. We strongly encourage all researchers who are working with CW3E to attend as well as graduate students and post-docs. A straw-man agenda of topics on the various days is below, but will be filled out more robustly based on submissions of presentations. There is a chance the schedule may change as well due to submissions.
Hotel Information:
There is a room block at Hotel La Jolla (7955 La Jolla Shores Dr, La Jolla, CA 92037). If reserving a room online enter booking code CW3EAM in the “Group Code” field. Bookings can also be made by phone at 1-800-HILTONS and referencing “CW3E Annual Meeting Room Block.” The cutoff date for the room block is Friday, March 23, 2018.
Agenda: Click here for pdf
Monday, April 16th
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12:30-1:00 |
Check-in and register |
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1:00-2:00 |
Welcome and State of CW3E |
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Extreme Precipitation Climatology and Future Projections |
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2:00-2:15 |
Duane Waliser: Global AR Research Activities with CW3E |
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2:15-2:30 |
Sasha Gershunov: Role of Atmospheric Rivers in Projected West Coast Precipitation Regime Change |
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2:30-2:45 |
Dan Cayan: Future Hydroclimate of California |
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2:45-3:15 |
Discussion |
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3:15-3:30 |
Break |
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3:30-3:45 |
Maryam Asgari Lamjiri: Hourly Characteristics of Rainfall Intensity and Duration Associated with California Atmospheric Rivers |
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3:45-4:00 |
Zhenhai Zhang: The Relationship between Atmospheric River and Extratropical Cyclone over US West Coast |
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4:00-4:15 |
Corina Cerovski-Darriau: The ‘null’ Landslide Problem: Mapping Landslide-Free Areas of California to Inform Landslide Susceptibility Models |
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4:15-4:30 |
Collin Cronkite-Ratcliff: How Much Rain Until Slopes Become Susceptible to Landslides? |
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4:30-5:00 |
Discussion |
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Tuesday, April 17th |
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Physical Processes and Mesoscale Dynamics |
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9:00-9:15 |
Andrew Martin: How can a mesoscale frontal wave impact forecasts of a landfalling atmospheric river? |
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9:15-9:30 |
Bin Guan: Water Vapor Budget in Atmospheric Rivers: A Multi-model Evaluation |
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9:30-9:45 |
Chad Hecht: Synoptic to Mesoscale Forcing of Southern California Extreme Precipitation |
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9:45-10:00 |
Anna Wilson: An Overview of the FIRO-2018 Field Campaign |
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10:00-10:30 |
Discussion |
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10:30-10:45 |
Break |
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Forecasting |
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10:45-11:00 |
Jason Cordeira: The Influence of Atmospheric Rivers on National Weather Service Watches, Warnings, and Advisories Issued Over California 2007–2016 |
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11:00-11:15 |
Brian Bong: Atmospheric Rivers impacts on the eastern Sierra and western NV |
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11:15-11:30 |
Kyle Nardi: An assessment of numerical weather prediction models in forecasting atmospheric rivers |
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11:30-11:45 |
Dave Reynolds: A Near Real-time QPF Verification for Improved QPF Forecasts |
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11:45-12:00 |
Laurel DeHaan: Object-based Verification of Forecasted Atmospheric Rivers |
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12:00-12:30 |
Discussion |
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12:30-12:40 |
Group Photo |
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12:40-1:15 |
Lunch (Hang posters) |
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1:15-2:45 |
CW3E Strategic Planning – Lead by Arleen O’Donnell and Rob Hartman |
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2:45-3:00 |
Break (Hang posters) |
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Forecasting (continued) |
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3:00-3:15 |
Alex Tardy: Using CFSv2 and extended NWP for pattern change prediction and potential precipitation |
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3:15-3:30 |
Mike DeFlorio: TBD |
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3:30-3:45 |
Aneesh Subramanian: Real-time subseasonal outlooks of ARs |
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3:45-4:00 |
Kristen Guirguis: Circulation drivers of Atmospheric Rivers along the North American West Coast |
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4:00-4:30 |
Discussion |
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4:30-6:30 |
CW3E Reception and Poster Session
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Wednesday, April 18th |
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Meetings in Ted Scripps Room |
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9:00-12:00 FIRO Meeting |
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9:00-9:15 |
Opening remarks (Marty) |
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10:00-10:45 |
Coordination Between Tasks
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11:00-11:30 |
CW3E science supporting the FVA (review slides, discuss timeline for tasks (FVA completed pprox.. end of 2020/early 2021) |
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11:30-12:00 |
FIRO in 5 years – what should our targets be in the strategic plan? |
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1:30-4:30 AR Program Meeting – agenda to be determined |
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1:30-1:45 |
Opening remarks (Marty) |
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1:45-3:30 |
Task and Subaward Updates (10 mins each) to include review of deliverables, progress to date, relevant results and what’s next, questions for the team about the task.
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3:45-4:15 |
Coordination with Project |
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4:15-4:30 |
Wrap-up |
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Thursday, April 19th |
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AR Recon & Data Assimilation |
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9:00-9:30 |
Marty Ralph: Atmospheric River Reconnaissance 2018: A Review of Operations, Communication, and Flights |
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9:30-9:45 |
Aneesh Subramanian: Progress on Modeling and Data Assimilation studies for AR Recon |
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9:45-10:00 |
Jennifer Haase: Airborne GNSS-RO Observation Goals during AR Recon |
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10:00-10:30 |
Break |
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10:30-10:45 |
Minghua Zheng: Impacts of Dropsonde Observations on the Predictability of Two Landfalling Atmospheric River Events in February 2016 |
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10:45-11:00 |
Joel Norris: Observations of the complete water vapor budget of an atmospheric river |
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11:00-11:15 |
Forest Cannon: Airborne Radar Observations of Oceanic Precipitation in Atmospheric Rivers |
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11:15-12:00 |
Discussion |
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12:00-1:00 |
Lunch |
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Hydrology and Snow |
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1:00-1:15 |
Steve Margulis: Development of Midlatitude Montane Snow Reanalysis Datasets and their Usage in Gaining Insight into Snow Variability and its Drivers |
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1:15-1:30 |
Edwin Sumargo: Effects of Cloud Variability on Snow-fed Runoffs in California’s Sierra Nevada |
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1:30-1:45 |
Brian Henn: The Role of Atmospheric River Rain-Snow Levels and Pre-Existing Snowpack in the 2017 Oroville Dam Crisis |
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1:45-2:00 |
Rob Hartman: Understanding NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasts |
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2:00-2:15 |
Adrian Borsa: From drought to hurricanes: what observations of Earth deformation can tell us about hydrological processes |
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2:15-2:45 |
Discussion |
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2:45-3:30 |
Wrap-Up and Concluding Remarks |