Climate Monitoring and Prediction
CW3E climate theme is centered around understanding the role of extreme weather events in affecting water supplies, floods, debris flows and public health and finding similarities between these events to better predict them in the future. In addition, this research also examines extreme weather events in global climate models to understand how these events are projected to change in the future. Much of this work is done in collaboration with CNAP, California Nevada Applications Program. Through the careful examination of historical data from weather observing stations, satellites, reanalysis data sets and cataloguing big impact events CW3E research examines the historical variability, how these events may be changing and the impacts of a certain type of events. For example, current projects aim to understand how extreme precipitation events, including atmospheric rivers and closed-lows, contribute to floods, landslides and debris flow, and if there are specific characteristics of these historical events that cause these events to be high impact events (Figure 1). Results from another project have shown the precipitation in the future is likely to become more variable with the extremes becoming more extreme which has implications for future planning (Figure 2). CW3E climate related research is intended to better inform predicative capabilities by examining historical records and inform decision makers on the projected occurrence of extreme events.
Contact: Julie Kalansky (JKalansky@ucsd.edu)