Atmospheric River Reconnaissance

From 2015 to 2022, Atmospheric River Reconnaissance (AR Recon) grew from a concept, to a field demonstration, to an operational requirement and federally sponsored mission. It has gone from 3 storms flown over 2 weeks in 2016 to over 20 flown each water year since 2020 during the November-March period. Currently, AR Recon uses Air Force C-130s and the NOAA G-IV aircraft to carry out reconnaissance missions collecting high-density flight level observations and atmospheric profiles using dropsondes and has partnered with NOAA’s Global Drifter Program, led at Scripps Institution of Oceanography by the Lagrangian Drifter Laboratory, to deploy over 300 drifting buoys with pressure sensors since 2018. AR Recon also supports innovative technologies such as Airborne Radio Occultation (ARO). Flight planning and mission declaration is carried out by a diverse team of scientists and forecasters, who consider essential atmospheric structures and input from multiple objective targeting methods.

A steering committee for modeling and data assimilation consisting of a multi-agency team of operational centers, research institutions and universities is working together to document the impacts of the observations on analyses and forecasts, and enhance and expand their utility. Robust demonstrations of success to date, along with other factors, have led to a geographic expansion of operations for Water Year 2024 (e.g., US Air Force Reserve Command C-130 flights out of Guam in January 2024).

Workshop Goals:

Document impacts of the data on forecast outcomes.

Review and refine operational sampling, data collection and dissemination strategies.

Guide future research, including coordinated data impact studies, advances in fundamental science, and exploration of campaign expansion, among other topics.

Agenda

The workshop will cover the following specific topics, under the Research And Operations Partnership (RAOP) framework, with oral sessions, poster sessions, and interactive panel discussions:

• Diagnostic, verification, and validation methods including use of the AR scale
• Data assimilation and observation impact studies, including new methods, and coordinated case studies
• Identify leading sources of forecast errors, including role of mesoscale frontal waves, processes connecting the tropics to midlatitudes, including tropical moisture exports, and systematic model errors
• Physical process studies enabled by AR Recon in support of water applications
• Evaluation of downstream impacts of AR Recon in the Central and Eastern US
• Specific evaluation of flights conducted out of Guam in 2024
• Sensitivity, sampling strategies, and targeting methods for essential atmospheric structures
• Expansion of AR Recon to include events originating in the Gulf of Mexico, North Atlantic, and potentially the Mediterranean
• Expansion of AR Recon observations to the Central and Western Pacific
• Collaboration with the planned North Atlantic Waveguide, Dry Intrusion, and Downstream Impact Campaign (NAWDIC) in winter 2025/26
• Coordination with other campaigns, including the Global Precipitation Experiment (GPEX) and the Office of Naval Research Study of Air-Sea Fluxes and Atmospheric River Intensity (SAFARI)
• New observations and observing systems
• Tying observing and modeling strategies directly to impacts, including economic
• Discussion of a vision for AR Recon in 2030

Additionally, the 2024 AR Recon Workshop will include sessions for several working groups within the RAOP that will discuss melding recent research advancements with operational sampling strategies to inform future research, targeting strategies, and operational priorities. These include efforts to operationalize Airborne Radio Occultation data and efforts to work effectively on targeted flight tracks for impactful winter storms affecting the Eastern US.

This workshop is invitation only. If you would like to present a poster, submit an abstract, or participate in another capacity and did not receive an invitation, or if you have any other questions related to the workshop, please contact Samuel Babbitt (AR Recon Coordinator).

Xingren Wu, Samuel Babbitt, and Anna Wilson

Hotel Information

Directions & Transportation to the NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

Atmospheric River Reconnaissance Modeling and Data Assimilation Steering Committee:

F. Martin Ralph (Workshop and Steering Committee Co-Chair), Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at UC San Diego/Scripps Institution of Oceanography (CW3E)