Ensemble Forecast Systems

CW3E AR Landfall Tool
Developed in collaboration with Dr. Jay Cordeira, Plymouth State University

The probability CW3E AR Landfall Tool displays the likelihood and timing of AR conditions at each point on the map in a line along the U.S. West Coast or inland derived from the NCEP GEFS model over the next 16 days. The probability of AR conditions represents the number of ensemble members that predict IVT to be greater than the chosen threshold at the given location and time. To see how each forecast type has changed over the previous seven days click on dProp/dT. These plots are created by Jason Cordeira, Plymouth State Univeristy.

Select variable or threshold to be displayed, location, and forecast length to generate plot, click image to open in a new tab.