Atmospheric River Impact Tool

Operational Forecast
Historical Cases

Supported by the National Science Foundation Coastlines and People Program: #2052972

Model Climate: How does this forecast compare to past forecasts with similar lead time?

Plot description: Model Climate (M-Climate) is generated based on NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System, version 12 (GEFSv12) reforecast data (2000-2019), for integrated water vapor transport (IVT), freezing level (Z0), and 1000-hPa wind (shading, percentile rank). This places important forecast elements in the context of reforecasts with the same lead time and at similar times of year. For example, large M-Climate Percentile Rank IVT values indicate GEFS ensemble mean IVT values are large for a given lead time. The contours show the ensemble mean forecast IVT (kg m-1 s-1), freezing level (feet), and 1000-hPa wind (knots) based on NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System.

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Data Sources

  • National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GFS) Model obtained from NOAA/NCEP at 0.5-degree resolution via NOMADS.
  • The NOAA GEFS Reforecast version 12 data at 0.25-degree resolution was obtained from NOAA via Amazon AWS.