West-WRF Ensemble Forecast Tools
The West-WRF Ensemble is not currently running in real-time in an effort to improve the forecast skill through validation and verification. CW3E will resume real-time forecasting using the West-WRF Ensemble prior to the next cool season.
The products are provided “as is” and are intended for research purposes only (disclaimer). All products on this page are considered experimental.
15-Minute Precipitation and Recent Burn Areas
Shading represents 15-minute accumulated precipitation of various percentiles from the West-WRF Ensemble forecast model. Black outlines represent the perimeters of wildfires that occurred within the last 12 months for which post-fire debris-flow hazard assessments were conducted by the USGS. This page is for informational purposes only and does not prescribe post-fire debris flow thresholds nor provide information about post-fire debris flow hazards or impacts. For information on post-fire debris-flow hazards with incoming storms, please consult forecast information from your local National Weather Service office and your local emergency services.
Maximum 15-Minute Precipitation
Shading represents the probability of 15-minute accumulated precipitation to be greater than various thresholds during a 3-hour period from the West-WRF Ensemble forecast model. Probability is calculated based on the number of ensemble members predicting the variable over the chosen threshold. Black outlines represent the perimeters of wildfires that occurred within the last 12 months for which post-fire debris-flow hazard assessments were conducted by the USGS. This page is for informational purposes only and does not prescribe post-fire debris flow thresholds nor provide information about post-fire debris flow hazards or impacts. For information on post-fire debris-flow hazards with incoming storms, please consult forecast information from your local National Weather Service office and your local emergency services.