CW3E Announces Addition of Environment and Climate Change Canada Model to S2S AR Activity Outlooks

September 27, 2022

CW3E is pleased to announce the addition of the Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) S2S ensemble forecast system to its public S2S website. The ECCC data, along with a second S2S ensemble forecast system from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), is used to create AR activity forecasts at weeks 1-3 lead time, as described on the website and documented in DeFlorio et al. 2019b. The ECCC ensemble forecast includes 21 members and the forecast is issued once per week on Thursday.

With the addition of the ECCC models, users on the CW3E website now have the option to display AR activity forecasts at weeks 1-3 lead time from either model, allowing for comparison between the ensemble systems. An example of the latest ECCC forecast, initialized on September 22, 2022 at 00Z, is shown below.

DeFlorio, M. J., D. E. Waliser, F. M. Ralph, B. Guan, A. Goodman, P. B. Gibson, S. Asharaf, L. Delle Monache, Z. Zhang, A. C. Subramanian, F. Vitart, H. Lin, and A. Kumar (2019b), Experimental subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting of atmospheric rivers over the Western United States. Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres (S2S Special Issue), 124, 11,242-11,265. doi:10.1029/2019JD031200.