CW3E AR Update: 19 October 2022 Outlook

October 19, 2022

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First Atmospheric River of Water Year 2023 to Bring Precipitation to Washington and Oregon

  • Two plumes of IVT will make landfall, one Thursday over northern Washington, followed by a second stronger pulse Friday into Saturday along the coast of Washington and Oregon
  • This event will bring weak AR1 conditions (based on the Ralph et al. 2019 AR Scale) to the coastal PNW
  • The NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is forecasting 1–2 inches of precipitation in the coastal PNW over the 5 days, with the highest precipitation totals of 2.5–3.0 inches forecast in the Washington and Oregon Cascades
  • Although significant hydrologic impacts are not expected, this system will bring beneficial precipitation to regions currently experiencing drought conditions and extremely low soil moisture
  • This precipitation will likely improve firefighting conditions across the Cascades and lead to improved air quality across the PNW

Click images to see loops of GFS IVT & IWV forecasts

Valid 0600 UTC 20 October – 1200 UTC 22 October 2022





Summary provided by S. Bartlett, C. Castellano, S. Roj, B. Kawzenuk, C. Hecht, N. Oakley, J. Kalansky and F. M. Ralph; 19 October 2022

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