Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations

FIRO is a reservoir-operations strategy that better informs decisions to retain or release water by integrating additional flexibility in operation policies and rules with enhanced monitoring and improved weather and water forecasts (American Meteorological Society; 2020).

FIRO is being developed and tested as a collaborative effort in the Russian River Basin (Lake Mendocino), the Santa Ana River Basin (Prado Dam), and the Yuba-Feather River Basins that engages experts and stakeholders in civil engineering, hydrology, meteorology, biology, economics and climate from several federal, state and local, universities and others. There is significant interest and support for developing FIRO at other appropriate locations in the Western U.S. and elsewhere.

Lake Mendocino
Prado Dam
FIRO Colloquium

Jay Jasperse

(Sonoma Water)

F. Martin Ralph

(Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at Scripps Institution of Oceanography)

Michael Anderson

(California State Climate Office, Department of Water Resources)

Levi Brekke

(U.S. Bureau of Reclamation)

Nick Malasavage

(US Army Corps of Engineers)

Michael Dettinger

(CW3E, formerly U.S. Geologic Survey)

Joseph Forbis

(US Army Corps of Engineers)

Alan Haynes

(Caifornia Nevada River Forecast Center, NWS)

Joshua Fuller

(National Marine Fisheries Service)

Cary Talbot

(US Army Corps of Engineers)

Robert Webb

(NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory)

Arleen O’Donnell

(Eastern Research Group)

Rob Hartman

(RKH Consulting Services)

Nathan Pingel

(HDR Inc.)

Michael Konieczki

(HDR Inc.)

One Page Summary

FIRO Fact Sheet

Work Plan Fact Sheet

Full Preliminary Viability Assessment

Preliminary Viability Assessment One Page Summary

Lake Mendocino Final Viability Assessment Appendix

Assessing Quantitative Precipitation and Inflow Forecast Skill for Potential FIRO for Lake Mendocino

Assessment of Current Forecast Skill Supporting the PVA of FIRO on Lake Mendocino

Delaney 2020 WRR – Supporting Information

Baseline writeup

Varied Guide Curve Alternative

Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations Lake Mendocino Demonstration Project Evaluation of Ensemble Forecast Operations

Consequence Analysis Procedure

Robustness Testing

Alternative Analysis Results Metrics: Existing (Baseline) Conditions

Alternative Analysis Results Metrics: EFO Alternative

Alternative Analysis Results Metrics: Hybrid Alternative

Alternative Analysis Results Metrics: Modified Hybrid Alternative

Alternative Analysis Results Metrics: 5-day Deterministic Alternative

Alternative Analysis Results Metrics: Alternative Comparison

Hydrologic engineering management plan (HEMP)

5-year Major Deviation for Lake Mendocino

Water Year 2019 Major Deviation Request Cover Letter

Water Year 2019 Major Deviation Request

Water Year 2020 Deviation Request Lake Mendocino

AR Forecasting Products for Situational Awareness

Enhanced Monitoring

Subseasonal Forecasts – Research and Development

Week 1 Forecasts – Research and Development

Hydrologic Model Improvement

ERDC Mendocino Report

Reservoir Management Tools

EFO Model Research and Development

– Coming soon

Chinook Migration

Lake Mendocino and Upper Russian River Water Temperature Model