CW3E AR Update: 02 April 2018 Outlook

CW3E AR Update: 02 April Outlook

April 02, 2018

Click here for a pdf of this information.

Atmospheric river forecast to impact Northern California later this week

  • GFS Ensemble members are currently forecasting a potentially strong to extreme AR over Northern California later this week
  • There is currently large uncertainty in the onset, duration, and magnitude of AR conditions, creating uncertainties in the potential impacts of this event
  • >5 inches of precipitation could fall during this event over the high elevations of the Coastal and Sierra Nevada Mountains in Northern California
  • The GFS is currently suggesting freezing levels >8,000 feet for most of this event, which may lead to most precipitation over the high Sierra falling as rain

Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of 0-141 hour GFS forecast

Valid 1200 UTC 02 April – 0900 UTC 08 April 2018






Summary provided by C. Hecht, F.M. Ralph, and B. Kawzenuk; 1 PM PT Monday 02 April 2018

*Outlook products are considered experimental

CW3E AR Update: 20 March 2018 Outlook

CW3E AR Update: 20 March Outlook

March 20, 2018

Click here for a pdf of this information.

Update on Atmospheric River Forecast to Impact California This Week

  • The terminus of the atmospheric river plume is approaching coastal CA and precipitation will begin today
  • Models are suggesting potentially strong (IVT >750 kg m-1 s-1) AR conditions over San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties
  • Locations further south may experience moderate strength AR conditions (IVT >500 kg m-1 s-1)
  • AR conditions are forecast to peak over portions of SoCal between Midnight and 11 AM PDT on Thursday, 22 March 2018
  • As much as 10 inches of precipitation may fall over the higher elevations of Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties
  • The National Weather Service has issued numerous Flash Flood Watches and Winter Weather Warnings in California

SSMI/SSMIS/AMSR2-derived Integrated Water Vapor (IWV)

Valid 0000 UTC 18 March – 1600 UTC 20 March 2018

Images from CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin

Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of 0-72 hour GFS forecast

Valid 1200 UTC 20 March – 1200 UTC 23 March 2018











Summary provided by C. Hecht, F.M. Ralph, J. Rutz, and B. Kawzenuk; 1 PM PT Tuesday 20 March 2018

*Outlook products are considered experimental

CW3E Post Event Summary: Arizona AR

CW3E AR Update: 16 February Post Event Summary

February 16, 2018

Click here for a pdf of this information.

Atmospheric River Impacts Southern Arizona

  • An AR made landfall over the Mexican Baja peninsula on 14 February 2018
  • Due to the favorable orientation of IVT relative to gaps in elevation along the Baja, the AR was able to penetrate inland and bring AR conditions and precipitation to Southern Arizona
  • Tucson, Arizona received ~1.3 inches of precipitation in 24 hours, ~10% of the average annual precipitation total, with storm total precipitation reaching ~1.5 inches
  • Precipitation from this event more than doubled the water year precipitation to date for the City of Tucson
  • Mt. Lemmon, to the northeast of Tucson, received 8.66 inches of precipitation over the course of the event

SSMI/SSMIS/AMSR2-derived Integrated Water Vapor (IWV)

Valid 0600 UTC 13 February – 1700 UTC 16 February 2018

Images from CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin

Click IVT or IWV image to see loop GFS Analysis

Valid 0600 UTC 12 February – 0600 UTC 16 February 2018









Summary provided by C. Hecht, F.M. Ralph; 2 PM PT Friday 16 February 2018

*Outlook products are considered experimental

CW3E Launches Near Real-Time AR and QPF Forecast Verification Website

CW3E Launches Near Real-Time AR and QPF Forecast Verification Website

February 13, 2018

CW3E has developed a new suite of tools designed to quickly evaluate the performance of forecasts for the U.S. West Coast. Tools are now available to verify forecasts of precipitation and integrated vapor transport (IVT), a proxy for atmospheric rivers. The verification method is based upon identifying contiguous regions, called objects, in the forecast that meet the requirements for an impactful precipitation or atmospheric river event. For example, in the below Figure, the forecasted AR (blue shading) is an IVT object (proxy for AR) because it exceeds the threshold 500 kg m-1 s-1 and has geometry consistent with an atmospheric river. The blue shaded forecast IVT object has a location, size and other characteristics that can be compared to an analysis object (blue outline) at the matching forecast valid time. To visualize this process, see the overlap of the two objects in the Figure’s middle panel. On the CW3E website, users may choose to examine precipitation and IVT fields for the previous week; choose one of several forecast sources – including several well-known numerical models; choose a range of forecast lead times; and choose one of several object thresholds. For IVT objects that exceed 500 kg m-1 s-1, additional statistics are provided. The tools are designed to inform operational stakeholders of model performance for key precipitation events and atmospheric river landfalls.

The new verification website is created using NCARs Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) software. These tools were developed by Laurel DeHaan, Andrew Martin, Rachel Weihs, Brian Kawzenuk and Chad Hecht of CW3E and David Reynolds of CIRES. They can be accessed from the CW3E forecast verification webpage. A more complete explanation of the verification and the methodology is provided on the website.

Additional forecast verification tools are in development at CW3E and will be posted to the website as they become available.

(Left) Forecasted IVT from the NCEP GFS, initialized 1200 UTC 24 January 2018 and valid 1200 UTC 29 January 2018.
(Middle) Forecasted (shading) and observed (contour) IVT objects identified by MODE using a 500 kg m-1 s-1 threshold.
(Right) GFS analysis (0-hr forecast) IVT valid 1200 UTC 29 January 2018.

CW3E Publication Notice: Genesis, Pathways, and Terminations of Intense Global Water Vapor Transport in Association with Large-Scale Climate Patterns

CW3E Publication Notice

Genesis, Pathways, and Terminations of Intense Global Water Vapor Transport in Association with Large-Scale Climate Patterns

February 13, 2018

CW3E researchers Scott Sellars and Brian Kawzenuk and director Marty Ralph in collaboration with Phu Nguyen (UC Irvine) and Soroosh Sorooshian recently published a paper in Geophysical Research Letters titled Genesis, Pathways, and Terminations of Intense Global Water Vapor Transport in Association with Large-Scale Climate Patterns ( The study uses the CONNected objECT (CONNECT) algorithm applied to integrated water vapor transport (IVT) data for the period of 1980 to 2016 calculated from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) to identify objects associated with extreme moisture transport (Sellars et al., 2013, 2015).

The algorithm generated a global dataset of life-cycle records in time and space of evolving strong water vapor transport events. Each object was associated with distinct physical and climatological features such as object size, location, and intensity, various climatological teleconnection patterns, and many other characteristics. This algorithm identified various weather phenomena associated with strong moisture transport such as atmospheric rivers, hurricanes and tropical cyclones, monsoon transport, and various other systems that produced extreme moisture transport. It was illustrated that these events typically occurred in five distinct regions located in the midlatitudes (off the coast of the southeast United States, eastern China, eastern South America, off the southern tip of South Africa, and in the southeastern Pacific Ocean) (Figure 1a). Additional analysis showed distinct genesis and termination regions and global seasonal peak frequency during Northern Hemisphere late fall/winter and Southern Hemisphere winter (Figure 1c and d). In addition, the frequency and location of these events were shown to be strongly modulated by the Arctic Oscillation, Pacific North American Pattern, and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Moreover, a positive linear trend in the annual number of objects was reported, increasing by 3.58 objects year-over-year. The vast dataset produced in this study will be used for various future research opportunities focused on extreme moisture transport and its connection to large-scale climate dynamics.

Figure 1:(a) Total number of IVT objects from January 1980 to August 2016. (b) Average duration in hours of object at each grid cell. (c) The number of objects at genesis (starting) locations for all IVT objects. (d) The number of objects at termination (ending) locations for all IVT objects. The gray areas represent landmass.

Atmospheric River Reconnaissance – 2018 is Underway

Atmospheric River Reconnaissance – 2018 is Underway

February 8, 2018

Beginning on January 19th with a dry run for forecast and flight planning operations, CW3E director Marty Ralph has been leading the Atmospheric River Reconnaissance (AR Recon; 2018 campaign, in close collaboration with Co-PI Vijay Tallapragada of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Jim Doyle of the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL). AR Recon 2018 supports improved prediction of landfalling atmospheric rivers on the US west coast, which is a type of storm that is key to the region’s precipitation, flooding and water supply (e.g., Ralph et al. 2012, 2013, 2016; Dettinger et al. 2011; Neiman et al. 2011). Forecasts of landfalling ARs are key to precipitation prediction and yet are in error by +/- 400 km at even just 3-days lead time (Wick et al., 2013). The concept for AR Recon was first recommended in a report to the Western States Water Council that was prepared by a broad cross-disciplinary group in 2013 (Ralph et al. 2014).

Key sponsors are the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the CA Department of Water Resources, who are working with CW3E and other partners to advance their goals of using improved AR prediction to inform water and infrastructure management (e.g. FIRO, CW3E AR Monitoring, Analysis and Prediction System). This campaign has been conducted with participation of experts on midlatitude dynamics, atmospheric rivers, airborne reconnaissance, and numerical modeling, who have come together from organizations including CW3E at UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography, NOAA (NWS’ NCEP and Western Region, OMAO/Aircraft Operations Center), NRL, the Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, Plymouth State Univ., the National Center for Atmospheric Research, U Albany, U Arizona, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and have participated in daily forecasting and flight planning discussions. The team and its efforts for the first Intensive Observing Period (IOP) are summarized in Fig. 1.

Fig. 1. Summary of planning team and plans for the first IOP of AR Recon – 2018.

Fig. 2. Dropsondes on the NOAA G-IV aircraft before getting released through the chute (below left). Each dropsonde is about the size of two soda cans. Photo courtesy Dr. Brian Henn.

Three aircraft that are normally used for hurricane reconnaissance are being deployed for atmospheric river reconnaissance this winter. The data are being incorporated by global modeling centers. The flights are conducted over the Northeast Pacific to collect observations to support improved AR forecasts. These aircraft include two of the Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron’s WC-130J Hurricane Hunter aircraft, one based in Hawaii and the other in California, and NOAA’s Gulfstream IV (G-IV), based in Everett, WA. Air Force personnel have been stationed at Scripps to help coordinate flight planning. The primary data collected are from the release of dropsondes (Fig. 2), which record temperature, wind, and relative humidity at very high resolution throughout the atmosphere. Dr. Jennifer Haase and postdocs Michael Murphy and Bing Cao flew additional instrumentation aboard the NOAA G-IV to characterize the upper atmosphere poleward of the atmospheric rivers. A simplified version of the GNSS Instrument System for Multistatic and Occultation Sensing (GISMOS) was used to measure profiles of the atmospheric environment to the sides of the aircraft while dropsondes measure profiles directly below the aircraft. The data will be analyzed after the campaign to investigate whether temperature variations not captured in the numerical weather models had an impact on storm development.

To date, four missions have been flown (Fig. 3), and a total of 306 successful dropsonde releases were completed. Three of these missions included all three aircraft, and one included the two C-130s without the G-IV. Flights were all centered at 0000Z, with drops occurring in the +/- 3 hour time window, so that the data the aircraft gathered could be assimilated into operational numerical weather prediction models, including NWS’ Global Forecast System (GFS), ECMWF, and NRL’s Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS).

Fig. 3. Flight tracks and actual drop locations for all aircraft over GFS analysis IVT (integrated vapor transport) at drop center time. Figure provided by Brian Kawzenuk.

ARRecon-2018 is making use of an exciting tool developed by the NRL (Doyle et al., 2012), a moist adjoint model that pinpoints location of greatest sensitivity in the forecast – which is centered typically on the atmospheric river core. This moisture sensitivity is substantially larger than temperature, wind, or any other sensitivity. The field campaign is refining how the tool works, and that information is being combined with knowledge of dynamically significant meteorological features such as the upper-level jet, cold-air troughs and other features to specify each mission’s detailed flight tracks. These inputs were developed through group discussions such as is pictured (Fig. 4) on 25 January 2018. The dropsonde data collected in these targeted locations in the otherwise data sparse ocean may be part of the solution to getting atmospheric river forecasts right. Analysis of the impact of the data will be carried out over the next couple of years to thoroughly assess this, including development of specialized assimilation methods. Not only will these data be assimilated into operational forecast models, but the information collected will be used in research studies to further understand the dynamics and processes that are the main drivers of key atmospheric river characteristics such as strength, position, length, orientation, and duration.

Fig. 4. Daily flight planning meeting on 25 January 2018 at Scripps/CW3E. Clockwise from left front: F. Martin Ralph (PI/Mission Director), Maj. Ashley Lundry (US Air Force, C-130 Flight Director), Grant Wagner (US Air Force Navigator), Matt Hawcroft (Observer), Jay Cordeira (Plymouth St. Univ., Forecasting Lead), Chad Hecht (Staff Researcher CW3E, Forecaster), Forest Cannon (CW3E PostDoc, Flight Planning Coordinator), Aneesh Subramanian (CW3E Project Scientist, Modeling and Data Assimilation Lead). Participants, but not in photo, Jim Doyle (NRL, AR Recon Alternate Mission Director), Anna Wilson (CW3E Field Research Manager, AR Recon Coordinator), Jon Rutz (NWS, C-130 Flight Planning Lead), Chris Davis (NCAR, G-IV Planning Lead), Carolyn Reynolds (NRL, Moist Adjoint Team Lead), Tom Galarneau (Univ. of Arizona, G-IV Flight Planning Support), Reuben Demirdjian (CW3E grad student, Adjoint team), Lance Bosart (SUNY Albany, Flight planning input).

Photos from IOP 4 illustrate the experience of a flight on the NOAA G-IV (Fig. 5).

Fig. 5. Photos from the NOAA G-IV IOP-4 flight on 3 Feb 2018 from Paine Field in Everett, WA (near Seattle). Flight lasted 8.2 hours, covered 3400 nautical miles and released 39 dropsondes. Clockwise from top left: Scientists and crew head out to board the G-IV; Tanner Sims (AOC, Pilot) in the cockpit; F. Martin Ralph (CW3E/Scripps, PI) holding a dropsonde; a view of the G-IV’s wing in flight; David Cowan (AOC, Pilot) and Richard Henning (AOC, Flight Director); Anna Wilson (CW3E/Scripps; AR Recon Coordinator) and Jessica Williams (AOC, Flight Director). Photos courtesy F. Martin Ralph.

While the NOAA G-IV has completed its mission in the west for this year, there are still two more storms to be sampled by the C-130s through the end of February 2018. Stay tuned for more information on those missions!

For more information on the AR Recon 2018 campaign, please see the following stories:


Dettinger, M.D., Ralph, F.M., Das, T., Neiman, P.J., and Cayan, D., 2011: Atmospheric rivers, floods, and the water resources of California. Water, 3 (Special Issue on Managing Water Resources and Development in a Changing Climate), 455-478.

Doyle, J.D., C.A. Reynolds, C. Amerault, and J. Moskaitis, 2012: Adjoint sensitivity and predictability of tropical cyclogenesis. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 3535-3557.

Neiman, P. J., L. J. Schick, F. M. Ralph, M. Hughes, G. A. Wick, 2011: Flooding in Western Washington: The Connection to Atmospheric Rivers. J. Hydrometeor., 12, 1337-1358, doi: 10.1175/2011JHM1358.1.

Ralph, F. M., and M. D. Dettinger, 2012: Historical and national perspectives on extreme West Coast precipitation associated with atmospheric rivers during December 2010. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 783-790.

Ralph, F. M., T. Coleman, P.J. Neiman, R. Zamora, and M.D. Dettinger, 2013: Observed impacts of duration and seasonality of atmospheric-river landfalls on soil moisture and runoff in coastal northern California. J. Hydrometeor., 14, 443-459.

Ralph, F. M., M. Dettinger, A. White, D. Reynolds, D. Cayan, T. Schneider, R. Cifelli, K. Redmond, M. Anderson, F. Gherke, J. Jones, K. Mahoney, L. Johnson, S. Gutman, V. Chandrasekar, J. Lundquist, N.P. Molotch, L. Brekke, R. Pulwarty, J. Horel, L. Schick, A. Edman, P. Mote, J. Abatzoglou, R. Pierce and G. Wick, 2014: A vision for future observations for Western U.S. extreme precipitation and flooding– Special Issue of J. Contemporary Water Resources Research and Education, Universities Council for Water Resources, Issue 153, pp. 16-32.

Ralph, F. M., J. M. Cordeira, P. J. Neiman and M. Hughes, 2016: Landfalling atmospheric rivers, the Sierra barrier jet and extreme daily precipitation in northern California’s upper Sacramento river watershed. J. Hydrometeor., 17, 1905-1914.

Wick, G.A., P.J. Neiman, F.M. Ralph, and T.M. Hamill, 2013: Evaluation of forecasts of the water vapor signature of atmospheric rivers in operational numerical weather prediction models. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 1337-1352.

CW3E Publication Notice: An Inter-comparison Between Reanalysis and Dropsonde Observations of the Total Water Vapor Transport in Individual Atmospheric Rivers

CW3E Publication Notice

An Inter-comparison Between Reanalysis and Dropsonde Observations of the Total Water Vapor Transport in Individual Atmospheric Rivers

February 2, 2018

CW3E collaborators Bin Guan (UCLA), Duane Waliser (NASA/JPL), along with CW3E director Marty Ralph, recently published a paper in the Journal of Hydrometeorology, titled An Inter-comparison Between Reanalysis and Dropsonde Observations of the Total Water Vapor Transport in Individual Atmospheric Rivers ( The paper is included in the journal’s special collection on MERRA-2, Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2.

Using airborne observations from various field campaigns over the northeastern Pacific along with two atmospheric reanalysis products (ERA-Interim and MERRA-2), the study validated key characteristics of atmospheric rivers (ARs) depicted by reanalyses against observations, as well as evaluating how well the 21 observed ARs represent the total of about 6000 ARs that occurred during the winters of 1979-2016 over the northeastern Pacific.

Results showed that the reanalysis products accurately depict the strength of the observed ARs in terms of the total water vapor flowing along an individual AR across its entire width, with a mean error of only +3% or -1% depending on the reanalysis product being evaluated. Additionally the 21 observed ARs well represent the mean strength of the total of about 6000 ARs identified in reanalysis products, with a mean difference of 5% or 14% depending on the reanalysis product being compared. Similar comparisons were also done for AR width, and for ARs in other regions and seasons. The study highlights the values of both dedicated observations of specific cases and spatiotemporally more complete global reanalysis products in understanding the characteristics and impacts of ARs.

Figure Caption: (left) Histogram of AR widths based on all ARs detected in ERA-Interim over the northeastern Pacific (AR centroids within 163.4–124.6°W, 23–46.4°N) during 15 January to 25 March of 1979–2016 (gray bars). Also shown are the mean AR width (km) based on all reanalysis ARs that contributed to the histogram (red solid), the subset of the reanalysis ARs that correspond to the 21 dropsonde transects (red dashed), and the observed value based on the 21 dropsonde transects as reported in Ralph et al. (2017b) (blue dashed for the mean, and blue circles for individual transects). The mean AR width value is also indicated in the figure legend for each sample. Red shading indicates the 95% confidence interval of the mean reanalysis AR width for a random 21-member sample drawn from the pool of reanalysis ARs based on 10,000 iterations. The error bar centered on the blue dashed line indicates the 95% confidence interval of the difference between the blue and red dashed lines based on a two-tailed, paired t-test. (right) As in the left but for total integrated water vapor transport (108 kg s−1) across AR widths.

CW3E Fieldwork Season Begins

CW3E Fieldwork Season Begins

January 10, 2018

A team of CW3E postdocs, students, staff, and collaborators headed to Northern California on Sunday, 7 January to begin the winter 2018 fieldwork campaign. Throughout this winter season, CW3E plans to release radiosondes, conduct stream surveys, and collect isotope samples. The campaign aims to continue efforts in understanding atmospheric rivers (ARs) and their impacts on the Russian River Watershed. In support of the Forecast Informed Reservoir Operation (FIRO), hydrometeorological data from the campaign will be used to enhance water resources and flood control operations.

The team is launching from two sites: a coastal site, the UC Davis Bodega Bay Marine Laboratory and an inland site in Ukiah, CA, southwest of Lake Mendocino. These launches are being shared with National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices in Eureka, Sacramento, and Monterey. Peak launches recorded 511 units integrated water vapor transport (IVT) at Bodega Bay (0000Z 9 January 2018) and 389 units IVT at Ukiah (2100Z 8 January 2018).

A radiosonde launch completed in Bodega Bay (0259Z 9 January 2018) shows a sounding with typical AR conditions.

Note: no orographic enhancement present (NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory)

The Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch (RAMMB) of NOAA/NESDIS and Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRCA)

Leah Campbell and Anna Wilson, Postdocs, prepare to release radiosondes from Bodega Bay

Photograph taken at the mouth of the Russian River after the storm.

Other members of the team have been working on stream installations and measurements, along with isotope sampling. Working with the Sonoma County Water Agency (SCWA), CW3E has begun inventorying supplies to continue using the stream gauges that were installed during the previous fieldwork season. They have completed discharge measurements at five of the six streams where gauges are deployed, and will complete measurements at the remaining site today.

The team will continue collecting data and releasing radiosondes throughout this event with plans to return to sample ARs as they occur in the coming months. CW3E will also be partnering with NOAA and the U.S. Air Force, as part of the field campaign, for a series of Reconnaissance (Recon) flights into AR events. The AR Recon missions will start on 25 January, and continue through 28 February. In addition to the NOAA G-IV aircraft, flying out of Seattle for three storms, the campaign will also include two Air Force C-130s that will fly through a total of six storms, overlapping with the NOAA G-IV for three storms. These flights are a valuable method in improving the forecasting of AR conditions offshore and can provide enhanced prediction of AR landfall duration and intensity.

CW3E Publication Notice: Flood runoff in relation to water vapor transport by atmospheric rivers over the western United States

CW3E Publication Notice

Flood runoff in relation to water vapor transport by atmospheric rivers over the western United States

December 1, 2017

CW3E long-time collaborator, Mike Dettinger, and USGS colleague, recently published a paper in Geophysical Research Letter titled: Flood runoff in relation to water vapor transport by atmospheric rivers over the western United States.

In the study they analyzed historical flood flows at over 5000 streamgages across the western US in relation to landfalling atmospheric-river storms. Specifically, they focused on the probabilities of floods flows occurring as conditioned by the presence of an atmospheric river and by the water vapor-transport rates in the atmospheric river. Through this analysis they were able to show that stronger the atmospheric river, the more likely are flood flows to develop.

Along the west coast, these peak flows coincide with atmospheric rivers about 80+% of the time, falling off to about 40-50% of the time in southern California, and falling off the farther inland the river basin (with notable regional anomalies, e.g., around Phoenix and in northern Idaho).

Lake Mendocino Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations Steering Committee Submit Major Deviation Request

Lake Mendocino Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations Steering Committee Submit Major Deviation Request

November 15, 2017

On November 2nd members of the Lake Mendocino Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) Steering Committee1 submitted a major deviation request to Lt. Colonel Travis Rayfield, Commander of the San Francisco District, US Army Corps of Engineers. The purpose of the request is to improve water supply reliability and environmental conditions while maintaining flood management capacity of Lake Mendocino.

The deviation request, based on the Lake Mendocino FIRO Preliminary Viability Assessment, represents the culmination of a three-year collaborative effort by the FIRO Steering Committee to produce a significant body of technical and scientific work including watershed and atmospheric observations, atmospheric and hydrologic forecast analyses, and parallel modeling applications. If approved, this deviation would result in a maximum additional storage of 11,650 acre-feet between November 1 and February 28. The figure below shows the existing guide curve for the Coyote Valley Dam Lake Mendocino Water Control Manual and the proposed guide curve with the requested changes.

Existing Lake Mendocino guide curve (red dashed line) and the proposed guide curve with requested changes (blue solid line).

1 The Lake Mendocino FIRO Steering Committee consists of representatives from the Sonoma County Water Agency (SCWA), Scripps Institute of Oceanography (Scripps), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Geologic Survey (USGS), U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and the California Department of Water Resources. This deviation request is being submitted on behalf of steering committee members representing the following organizations: Sonoma County Water Agency, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, US Army Corps of Engineers, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and California Department of Water Resources.