CW3E Graduate Student Named AGU Voices for Science Advocate

CW3E Graduate Student Named AGU Voices for Science Advocate

May 21, 2018

Tashiana Osborne, a Ph.D. student within CW3E, was recently selected to become 1 of 30 American Geophysical Union (AGU) Voices for Science Advocates across the US. According to the AGU, their new program, Voices for Science, was ‘designed to create a network of skilled and dedicated scientists who are ready to share their science with a variety of important audiences’, including lawmakers, the media, community members, children, and others.

Osborne and other Advocates were flown to Washington, D.C. in April to complete a skill-building training in science communication and policy. During this training, Advocates created action plans, committing to create, contribute to, and/or engage peers in relevant activities throughout the year. AGU will reunite Advocates in Washington, D.C. for the December 2018 AGU Fall Meeting, where Advocates will share highlights from the year and participate in additional activities.

AGU emphasizes, ‘By participating in the Voices for Science program, the Advocates are helping to build public support for Earth and space science, protect critical science funding, and advance federal support for science policy. We look forward to sharing their success stories and lessons learned, and we hope they will serve as an inspiration for other AGU members to embark on their own science advocacy journeys.’

Voices for Science feature in AGU’s Earth & Space Science News (EOS): https://eos.org/agu-news/new-program-enables-scientists-to-be-voices-for-science

AGU Voices for Science Advocates (within the Communication track) after practicing techniques to communicate research with various audiences (Photo Credit: AGU)

International Atmospheric Rivers Conference 2018

International Atmospheric Rivers Conference 2018 – Abstract Submission and Registration Open Now! Abstracts Due April 2, 2018

The Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), at Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), UC San Diego will be hosting the 2nd International Atmospheric Rivers Conference (IARC) from June 25-28, 2018. The conference is organized by an international committee, with co-chairs from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the US Army Corps of Engineers in Seattle, CW3E, and Instituto Dom Luiz at the University of Lisbon.

 

The conference will be located at the beautiful Robert Paine Scripps Forum for Science, Society and the Environment on SIO’s campus. The conference will bring together experts across multiple fields to advance the state of the science and explore needs for new information. Traditional oral and poster sessions will be combined with panel discussions. Cutting-edge research with global and regional perspectives on atmospheric river (AR) science will be presented. Topics include: field observations and remote sensing, AR identification and tracking, physical processes, interactions between atmospheric transport and chemistry, forecasting capabilities, ARs and climate change, and emerging directions – as well as many others.

 

In 2016, CW3E hosted the first ever IARC, drawing over 100 participants from all over the globe including Australia, South America, Europe, Asia and Africa (Ralph et al., 2017). Participants came from all different disciplines and perspectives, from applications, engineering, water management, to researchers using modeling, theory, and observed data to investigate these phenomena. ARs have emerged as a hugely useful conceptual model to focus hydrologists and atmospheric scientists on the transport mechanisms and impacts of precipitation extremes caused by AR landfall, and we look forward to hosting an engaging, inspiring, four-day conference.

 

Abstract submission deadline is April 2, 2018. Student scholarships, which waive the registration fee, are available. Students are strongly encouraged to apply. The student scholarship application deadline is also April 2, 2018.

 

For more information regarding this conference, please visit: http://cw3e.ucsd.edu/iarc2018/. If you have further questions, please contact Dr. Anna Wilson or Dr. Alexandre Ramos.

CW3E AR Update: 20 March 2018 Outlook

CW3E AR Update: 20 March Outlook

March 20, 2018

Click here for a pdf of this information.

Update on Atmospheric River Forecast to Impact California This Week

  • The terminus of the atmospheric river plume is approaching coastal CA and precipitation will begin today
  • Models are suggesting potentially strong (IVT >750 kg m-1 s-1) AR conditions over San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties
  • Locations further south may experience moderate strength AR conditions (IVT >500 kg m-1 s-1)
  • AR conditions are forecast to peak over portions of SoCal between Midnight and 11 AM PDT on Thursday, 22 March 2018
  • As much as 10 inches of precipitation may fall over the higher elevations of Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties
  • The National Weather Service has issued numerous Flash Flood Watches and Winter Weather Warnings in California

SSMI/SSMIS/AMSR2-derived Integrated Water Vapor (IWV)

Valid 0000 UTC 18 March – 1600 UTC 20 March 2018

Images from CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin

Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of 0-72 hour GFS forecast

Valid 1200 UTC 20 March – 1200 UTC 23 March 2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Summary provided by C. Hecht, F.M. Ralph, J. Rutz, and B. Kawzenuk; 1 PM PT Tuesday 20 March 2018

*Outlook products are considered experimental

CW3E AR Update: 16 March 2018 Outlook

CW3E AR Update: 16 March Outlook

March 16, 2018

Click here for a pdf of this information.

Update on Atmospheric River Forecast to Impact California Next Week

  • Several changes have occurred in the forecast for the AR that may impact CA later next Week
  • GFS Ensemble members have started to converge on coastal AR conditions
  • While there is more agreement between ensemble members, there is still considerable uncertainty in onset, duration, and magnitude of AR conditions

Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of 18-180 hour GFS forecast

Valid 0600 UTC 17 March – 0000 UTC 24 March 2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Summary provided by C. Hecht, F.M. Ralph, and B. Kawzenuk; 3 PM PT Friday 16 March 2018

*Outlook products are considered experimental

CW3E AR Update: 15 March 2018 Outlook

CW3E AR Update: 15 March Outlook

March 15, 2018

Click here for a pdf of this information.

A potentially moderate strength atmospheric river is forecast to impact Southern California

  • An AR is currently forecast to impact Southern California on 21 and 22 March 2018
  • Some GFS ensemble members are indicating that this AR could be moderate strength (IVT >500 m-1 s-1)
  • There is currently large uncertainty pertaining to the magnitude and duration of this event
  • CW3E’s high resolution West-WRF model suggests this event is capable of producing 2-4 inches of precipitation over portions of Southern California

Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of 48-180 hour GFS forecast

Valid 0600 UTC 17 March – 1800 UTC 22 March 2018

 

 

 

 

 

Summary provided by C. Hecht, F.M. Ralph, B. Kawzenuk, and J. Cordeira; 12:30 PM PT Thursday 15 March 2018

*Outlook products are considered experimental

CW3E AR Update: 27 January 2017 Outlook

CW3E AR Update: 27 January Outlook

January 27, 2018

Click here for a pdf of this information.

Multiple ARs Currently Impacting and Forecast to Impact the West Coast this Weekend

  • An AR is currently impacting the West Coast (Referred to as AR 1)
  • Two Air Force C-130s and a NOAA G-IV collected observations within this AR on 26 January
  • A second (Referred to as AR 2) AR developed from a mesoscale frontal wave within the first AR and is forecast to make landfall at ~6 UTC on the 28th (10 PM PST on the 27th)
  • Over 10 inches of precipitation may fall over the Higher elevations of the Olympic mountains and Vancouver Island due to the two ARs

Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of 0-180 hour GFS forecast

Valid 1200 UTC 27 January – 0000 UTC 04 February 2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

Summary provided by C. Hecht, F.M. Ralph, A. Wilson; 2 PM PT Saturday 27 January 2018

*Outlook products are considered experimental

CW3E AR Update: 8-10 January 2018 Post Event Summary

CW3E AR Update: 8-10 January 2018 Post Event Summary

January 8, 2018

Click here for a pdf of this information.

Atmospheric river conditions brought widespread precipitation throughout California

  • A low pressure system developed off the CA coast on 7 January and interacted with tropical moisture to produce heavy precipitation over nearly all of CA
  • Nearly all of CA experienced AR conditions (IVT >250 kg m-1 s-1 and IWV >20 mm) for ~24 hours
  • The highest precipitation amounts were observed over the Coastal and Transverse Ranges, with some locations receiving over 200 mm of precipitation, making this and R-Cat 1 event

Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of GFS analysis

Valid 0000 UTC 5 January – 0000 UTC 10 January 2018

SSMI/SSMIS/ARMSR2-Derived Integrated Water Vapor (IWV)

Valid 0000 UTC 7 January – 1200 UTC 10 January 2018

NEXRAD Radar Reflectivity

Valid 0000 UTC 8 January – 1200 UTC 10 January 2018

Precipitation began over California around 400 UTC 8 January and lasted until early 10 January



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Summary provided by B. Kawzenuk and F.M. Ralph; 12 PM PT Thursday 11 January 2018

CW3E AR Outlook: 14 December 2017 Ridge Update

CW3E AR Outlook: 14 December 2017 Ridge Update

December 14, 2017

Click here for a pdf of this information.

Dry Conditions Expected to Persist over CA for the Foreseeable Future

  • Persistent high pressure and ridging over the northeast Pacific and USWC is directing moisture transport towards AK and resulting in long periods of dry conditions over the USWC
  • The lack of precipitation over the southern USWC is increasing drought conditions and has resulted in the Northern Sierra 8-station index dropping below normal accumulations to date
  • While ridging is forecast to persist, AR conditions are currently forecast to impact the West Coast but the unfavorable north/northwesterly orientation of IVT will result in little or no precipitation over CA
  • Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of 0-180 hour GFS forecast

    Valid 1200 UTC 14 December – 0000 UTC 22 December 2017

    Click 500-hPa Geopotential Height & Vorticity image to see loop of 0-180 hour GFS forecast


     

     

     

     

     

     

    Summary provided by C. Hecht, J. Cordeira B. Kawzenuk, J. Kalansky, and F.M. Ralph; 1 PM PT Thursday 14 December 2017

    *Outlook products are considered experimental

CW3E Publication Notice: GPM Satellite Radar Measurements of Precipitation and Freezing Level in Atmospheric Rivers: Comparison with Ground-Based Radars and Reanalyses

CW3E Publication Notice

GPM Satellite Radar Measurements of Precipitation and Freezing Level in Atmospheric Rivers: Comparison with Ground-Based Radars and Reanalyses

December 6, 2017

Forest Cannon, postdoc at CW3E, along with CW3E director Marty Ralph, fellow postdoc Anna Wilson, and UCLA professor Dennis Lettenmaier, recently published a paper in the Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres, titled: GPM Satellite Radar Measurements of Precipitation and Freezing Level in Atmospheric Rivers: Comparison with Ground-Based Radars and Reanalyses.

In their study, satellite radar reflectivity profiles from the Global Precipitation Measurement Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (GPM) were used to evaluate precipitation and temperature characteristics of Atmospheric Rivers (AR) over the western coast of North America and eastern North Pacific Ocean. Notably, their comparison of GPM bright band height with a network of ground-based vertically profiling radars along the West Coast demonstrated exceptional agreement, as did comparison with freezing level height from reanalyses over the eastern North Pacific Ocean (Figure 1; Figure 5 from the paper). These results indicate that GPM can be used to independently validate freezing level in models.

Figure Caption: (a) A GPM-DPR swath through AR conditions on February 4, 2015 at 0:00 UTC, and (b) the vertical profile of reflectivity from the Ka-band along the center of the GPM DPR swath subset within the red box in the top panel.

Additionally, the study identified significant differences in the frequency and intensity of precipitation between GPM and reanalyses over the eastern Pacific Ocean, indicating biases in both satellite-observed and modeled AR precipitation. Importantly, low-intensity precipitation rates accounted for a 20% increase in total precipitation in reanalyses compared to GPM-DPR, and AR conditions, specifically, contributed nearly 10% more to total GPM precipitation than reanalyses.

These results demonstrate that the advanced GPM satellite radar yields tremendous benefit for reducing the data gap over the global oceans and for supplementing the current understanding of precipitation processes in ARs.

Cannon, F. F.M. Ralph, A.M. Wilson, and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2017: GPM satellite radar measurements of precipitation and freezing level in atmospheric rivers: Comparison with ground-based radars and reanalyses. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. DOI: 10.1002/2017JD027355

 

Click here for a personal pdf of the article

CW3E AR Update: 14 November 2017 Outlook

CW3E AR Update: 14 November 2017 Outlook

November 14, 2017

Click here for a pdf of this information.

Two ARs Forecast to Impact the USWC over the Next Week

  • An AR currently impacting the Pacific Northwest is expected to end in the next several hours
  • A potentially strong AR (IVT >750 kg m-1 s-1) is forecast to impact California between 15 and 17 November
  • A second AR is forecast to make landfall over the USWC between 19 and 21 November 2017
  • Precipitation forecasts range from 5–8 inches over higher elevations associated with the first AR
  • Forecast uncertainty is currently high for the 19–21 November AR

Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of 0-168 hour GFS forecast

Valid 1200 UTC 14 November – 2100 UTC 21 November 2017


 

 

 

 

 

Summary provided by C.Hecht, B. Kawzenuk, J. Kalansky, and F.M. Ralph; 1 PM PT Wednesday 14 November 2017

*Outlook products are considered experimental