CW3E AR Update: 16 November Outlook

November 16, 2018

Click here for a pdf of this information.

Potential for Atmospheric River Activity over California Next Week

  • Multiple systems are currently forecast to potentially bring AR conditions and much needed precip. to California next week
  • Each of the 3 ARs are currently forecast to bring weak AR conditions (IVT magnitudes of 250–500 kg m–1 s–1) to portions of CA
  • These ARs could bring much needed relief to currently active fires in California
  • The precipitation could also reduce the extremely smoky conditions across most of California
  • Since these ARs are in the extended forecast (5–8 days), forecast uncertainty in onset, duration, and magnitude of AR conditions and precipitation is currently very high (stay tuned as time progresses closer to landfall)

    • Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of 0-240 hour GFS forecast

    Valid 1200 UTC 16 November – 1200 UTC 26 November 2018

     

     

    For information on how these experimental forecast products are created, click here

    For questions regarding these experimental ensemble forecast products, contact Mike Deflorio

     

     

     

     

     

    Summary provided by C. Hecht, F. M. Ralph, B. Kawzenuk, M. Deflorio; 3 PM PT Friday 16 November 2018

    *Outlook products are considered experimental