CW3E AR Update: 16 February 2017 Outlook

February 16, 2017

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Update on ARs Currently Impacting and Forecast to Impact West Coast

  • As much as 6 inches of precipitation has fallen over the past 24-hrs over the high elevations of Northern CA, OR, and WA
  • The second AR, which develops in conjunction with a mesoscale frontal wave, is forecast to impact Southern CA
  • Over 12 inches of precipitation is forecast to fall over the Transverse Ranges, raising concern for flooding and landslides
  • The lower elevations of Los Angeles and San Diego are forecast to receive 1–4.5 inches over the next 72 hours


 

 

Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of 0-126 hour GFS forecast

Valid 1200 UTC 16 Feb – 1800 UTC 21 Feb 2017
  • A mesoscale frontal wave is forecast to develop off of the current AR which will bring AR conditions to Southern CA.
  • The proximity and propagation of the low-pressure system will bring non-AR related precipitation the North/Central CA
  • Another AR is forecast to make landfall over Northern CA from 20 – 22 Feb.


 

 

 

 

Summary provided by C. Hecht and F.M. Ralph; 1 PM PT Thurs 16 Feb. 2017