CW3E Update: 16 September 2022 Outlook
September 16, 2022
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Early-Season Atmospheric River to Bring Precipitation to Northern California
- An early-season atmospheric river (AR) associated with a cutoff low is forecast to bring precipitation to Northern California and potentially help firefighting efforts at the Mosquito Fire, which has burned nearly 70,000 acres
- Forecast models show the potential for an AR 1 (based on the Ralph et al. 2019 AR Scale) in the foothills of Northern CA near the location of the Mosquito Fire, but there is still uncertainty in the magnitude and duration of AR conditions
- GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts are showing mean areal precipitation (MAP) over the North Fork American watershed around 1 inch over the next 10 days with considerable spread among individual ensemble members
Summary provided by S. Roj, S. Bartlett, C. Castellano, B. Kawzenuk, and F. M. Ralph; 16 September 2022
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