CW3E AR Update: 22 February Outlook

February 22, 2019

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Multiple ARs Forecast to impact the USWC in the coming Week

  • A shift into an active flow pattern may result in the landfall of successive atmospheric rivers starting this weekend
  • The first AR is forecast to make landfall over Southern Oregon and propagate southward over Northern California on 2/25
  • Cyclogenesis along the first AR will result in multiple pulses of enhanced IVT over the Coast and long duration of AR conditions
  • A cyclone and concomitant AR is forecast to generate northeast of HI, propagate eastward, and make landfall over Northern California on 02 March 2019
  • Forecast precipitation associated with the first AR could be as high as 4 inches over the Coastal Mountains of Southern Oregon and Northern California
  • 7-day WPC precipitation forecasts are currently as high as 10 inches over Southern Oregon and Northern California in association with both landfalling ARs
  • The GEFS is currently suggesting the possible landfall of a third AR between 11 and 13 March 2019

Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of 0-180 hour GFS forecasts

Valid 1200 UTC 22 February – 1200 UTC 2 March 2019







Summary provided by C. Hecht, B.Kawzenuk, J. Kalansky, F. M. Ralph; 3 PM PT 22 February 2019