CW3E AR Update: 22 October 2021 Outlook

October 22, 2021

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As atmospheric river conditions begin to dissipate from the current AR, focus turns to extreme AR over Weekend

  • AR conditions associated with the current AR bringing precipitation to California are forecast to end in the late morning and early afternoon
  • A much stronger AR is forecast to make landfall over California Saturday night
  • Models continue to forecast AR 5 conditions over the San Francisco Bay Area with AR 3 to 4 over a majority of the North and Central CA Coast
  • The California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC) is forecasting as much as 13 inches of precipitation to fall across the high-elevations in the Northern Sierra
  • While soils are currently dry due to extensive drought, the National Weather Service has issued numerous flash flood and flood watches due to the potential for high rain rates and post-fire debris flows

Click images to see loops of GFS IVT & IWV forecasts

Valid 1200 UTC 22 October – 1200 UTC 29 October 2021












Summary provided by C. Hecht, C. Castellano, B. Kawzenuk, J. Kalansky, L. Odell, and F. M. Ralph; 22 October 2021

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