CW3E AR Update: 24 March 2022 Outlook

March 24, 2022

Click here for a pdf of this information.

Weak Atmospheric River and Low-Pressure System to Bring Precipitation to Southern and Central CA

  • A weak atmospheric river (AR) is forecasted to make landfall over the Pacific Northwest tomorrow night
  • A secondary cyclone is forecasted to develop west of the AR and slowly approach the California coast, bringing a brief period of AR conditions to much of the state
  • Model-to-model differences in the forecast evolution of the surface cyclone and AR are leading to large differences in the forecast timing and location of the heaviest precipitation in California
  • The NWS Weather Prediction Center is forecasting 1–3 inches of precipitation over portions of coastal Southern California and the Sierra Nevada, with the highest amounts in the Transverse Ranges
  • The 00Z GEFS is forecasting the second AR to make landfall later and bring stronger AR conditions to northern Oregon and southern Washington
  • Compared to the GFS, the ECMWF is forecasting higher (lower) precipitation amounts over the Transverse Ranges (Sierra Nevada)

Click images to see loops of GFS IVT & IWV forecasts

Valid 0000 UTC 24 March – 0000 UTC 29 March 2022










Summary provided by C. Castellano, S. Bartlett, J. Kalansky, B. Kawzenuk, S. Roj, and F. M. Ralph; 24 March 2022

To sign up for email alerts when CW3E post new AR updates click here.

*Outlook products are considered experimental