CW3E AR Update: 26 January 2024 Outlook

January 26, 2024

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Several Strong ARs Forecast to Impact US West Coast Continuing Active Weather Period

  • An active weather pattern for the US West Coast is forecast to continue through Wed 31 Jan and potentially beyond.
  • The first AR made landfall early Fri 26 Jan into the PNW. This AR kicks off a period of AR conditions in the PNW and Northern California expected to continue through Wed 31 Jan.
  • The second AR, stronger than the first, is forecast to make landfall early Sun 28 Jan into the PNW and British Columbia, continuing AR conditions in the region.
  • The third, strongest AR is forecast to make landfall into British Columbia and the PNW toward the end of the second AR period on Tue 30 Jan.
  • All three ARs are forecast to bring precipitation to the USWC, with the heaviest rainfall expected from the first and second ARs over CA/OR border and Olympic Peninsula and in N. CA with the third AR.
  • The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook indicates a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4, or at least 15% chance) for flooding along the CA/OR border for the 24-hour period ending 4 AM PT Sat 27 Jan with the first AR.
  • The third AR is forecast to progress down the USWC and potentially bring impacts to much of the Western US.
  • The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has already indicated a moderate risk for heavy precipitation, heavy snow, and high winds for regions in the Western US and possible flooding along the CA coast and in AZ for Feb 2 through Feb 5.
  • The British Columbia River Forecast Center has issued Flood Watches for Vancouver Island, the South Coast and Fraser Valley as the second and third ARs are forecast to bring as much as 10 inches of rain to the region.

Click images to see loops of ECMWF IVT and IWV forecasts

Valid 1200 UTC 24 January 2024 – 1200 UTC 1 February 2024

















Summary provided by M. Steen, C. Castellano, S. Bartlett, J. Kalansky; 26 January 2024

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