CW3E AR Update: 13 May Outlook

May 13, 2019

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Late Season Atmospheric Rivers Forecast to Impact Washington, Oregon, and Northern California This Week

  • Multiple ARs are forecast to make landfall over the U.S. West Coast between 14 and 17 May 2019
  • The development of a secondary low as the initial landfalling AR leads to the landfall of a secondary AR over Northern CA
  • Forecast certainty in AR magnitude and duration is currently lower for the second AR
  • As much as 5–6 inches of precipitation could fall over Northern CA and Southern Oregon during the next 10 days
  • The GEFS is currently suggesting the potential for additional AR activity between 19 and 22 May, but uncertainty is currently high

Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of 0-180 hour GFS forecasts

Valid 1200 UTC 13 May – 0000 UTC 21 May 2019


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Summary provided by C. Hecht, B.Kawzenuk, J. Kalansky, F. M. Ralph; 3 PM PT 13 May 2019