cw3e-web - Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes

CW3E Welcomes Dr. Zach Brodeur

November 21, 2025

Zach joined CW3E in November 2025 as a Water Resources Engineer after completing two years as a postdoctoral associate in the Biological and Environmental Engineering department at Cornell University. He completed his PhD in Civil and Environmental Engineering at Cornell University under Dr. Scott Steinschneider and has been actively engaged in FIRO-related research efforts with CW3E through the course of his PhD and postdoctoral positions. Prior to his Cornell tenure, he earned his B.S. in Environmental Engineering from the U.S. Air Force Academy and served as an active-duty officer and F-16 pilot in the U.S. Air Force for 13 years.

Zach’s work has centered around the development of synthetic ensemble forecasting strategies that hold great promise for advancing the robustness of FIRO strategies. He will continue to develop this technology at CW3E, while also supporting a core mission of the CW3E Water Resources Engineering (WRE) team to provide crucial leadership and research-based operational analysis for FIRO viability assessments. In addition, he will help continued development of the Research and Operations Partnership (RAOP) model in WRE by leveraging a broad research background in hydrology, atmospheric science, and systems engineering coupled with deep military aviation operational experience.

Machine Learning Seasonal Precipitation Forecast for November 2025–January 2026

November 10, 2025

The Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) has issued the latest Machine Learning Seasonal Precipitation Forecast for the upcoming winter season (November 2025–January 2026). This forecast product provides probabilistic outlooks of seasonal precipitation anomalies across the western United States using an integrated framework that combines machine learning models (Random Forest, XGBoost, LSTM, and neural networks) with dynamical ensemble predictions from three North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) systems: CCSM4, CFSv2, and GEOS. Specifically, a plurality of combined ML and NMME ensemble members tilt the odds towards drier than normal conditions across the southwestern U.S. and wetter than normal conditions across the northwestern U.S., with 50% ensemble agreement. ML and NMME forecasts are predicting patterns consistent with drier than normal conditions in Southern CA (4/7 members). A majority of the ML and NMME forecasts predict near-normal precipitation over Northern and Central CA (6/7 members).

This seasonal prediction system, based on the method introduced in Gibson et al. (2021), aims to provide situational awareness guidance to water resource managers in California and throughout the western U.S. region. Visit the S&S forecast webpage to explore the latest results. This effort is part of CW3E’s ongoing mission to advance research-to-operations forecasting capabilities and strengthen climate-resilient decision support for the western United States.

Summary provided by Z. Yang and M. J. DeFlorio. Forecast generated by B. Kawzenuk and Z. Yang.

Gibson, P. B., W. E. Chapman, A. Altinok, L. Delle Monache, M. J. DeFlorio, and D. E. Waliser (2021), Training machine learning models on climate model output yields skillful interpretable seasonal precipitation forecasts. Nature Communications Earth & Environment, 2, 159. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00225-4.

CW3E Welcomes Dan Kozlowski

November 6, 2025

Dan joins CW3E as an operational meteorologist after a 26.5 year career at the National Weather Service, with the majority of this time at the California Nevada River Forecast Center located in Sacramento, CA after starting his career at the NWS Forecast Office in Monterey, CA. At the CNRFC, he was an operational meteorologist that focused on river flood forecasting, water management and water resources. Dan worked closely with numerous core partners, coordinating forecasts with local NWS Forecast Offices and giving weather briefings to the US Bureau of Reclamation, US Army Corps of Engineers, California Department of Water Resources, and several other local water agencies during the wetter winter season and spring snowmelt period. Also, Dan was responsible for the data program at the CNRFC, was one of two who developed and maintained the CNRFC website, and designed/coded several local applications used in operations.

At CW3E, Dan will continue to use his expansive knowledge of west coast weather in a role that will provide operational forecasts used at the CNRFC, and briefing core partners for decision-making purposes. In his free time, Dan enjoys downhill skiing, watching the Packers and Brewers, traveling to the many National Parks across the western US, and visiting family back in Wisconsin.

CW3E Welcomes Dr. Joseph Clark

October 24, 2025

Joseph P. Clark joined CW3E in September 2025 as a Postdoctoral Research Associate. He earned his Ph.D. in Meteorology and Atmospheric Science from The Pennsylvania State University in June 2021, where his research spanned topics such as Arctic amplification and the thermodynamic and radiative processes underlying large-scale teleconnections.

Following his doctorate, Joseph completed two postdoctoral appointments at Princeton University. His first position examined the sensitivity of the Intertropical Convergence Zone to changes in climate model configuration, while his second focused on the seasonal predictability of atmospheric rivers and precipitation across North America. During his time at Princeton and NOAA/GFDL, he also participated in community engagement initiatives and mentored undergraduate interns.

At CW3E, Joseph’s research will extend to exploring the seasonal predictability of precipitation and atmospheric rivers over the Mediterranean region. Outside of work, he enjoys running, hiking, swimming, and music.

CW3E Welcomes Dr. Cody Poulsen

October 22, 2025

Cody Poulsen joined CW3E as a postdoctoral scholar in October 2025. He earned a B.S. in Environmental Systems with a focus in Environmental Chemistry (2018) and a M.S. (2019) and PhD (2025) in Earth Sciences from University of California San Diego. Cody began his tenure at CW3E as an undergraduate researcher in the summer of 2016. In 2018, he transitioned into a PhD, advised by Dr. Marty Ralph. Cody’s PhD research explored the temporal variability and mechanisms of seasonal precipitation in western North America. He used paleoclimate proxies, climate models, and observational records to investigate hydroclimate variability at time scales from hours to centuries. Applying novel research to enable improved water management decisions was the guiding principle throughout his PhD.

Cody’s postdoctoral research will focus on the applications of tree-ring reconstructions of precipitation in Southern California, to study multi-century changes in atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation. In addition, he will explore the conditional predictability of western North America spring precipitation anomalies based on winter precipitation and the state of the Pacific Ocean. Cody will also contribute to the FIRO program and looks forward to applying his research to help inform water management practices.

CW3E Welcomes Alex Tardy

October 21, 2025

Alex has 32 years federal experience since 1993 at 6 locations across the US. He grew up in Vermont and graduated from State University of New York at Albany. Alex has extensive experience public speaking, forecasting, briefing and educating on atmospheric science and climate. He has been involved in a dozen individual, co-authored university and non-profit climate and atmospheric published science literature and public outreach educational material.

Alex was recognized as a climate leader by the San Diego Region Climate Education Partners and received a 2020 American Red Cross Hero Award for public outreach and weather risk education and preparedness. He held management positions in the National Weather Service as both a Science and Operations Officer and Warning Coordination Meteorologist.

CW3E Welcomes Denali Pinto

October 20, 2025

Denali Pinto joined CW3E in November 2024 as a research data analyst. She earned a Master of Quantitative Finance (MQF) from the UC San Diego Rady School of Management in March 2024 and a B.S. in Chemical Engineering from the Colorado School of Mines in May 2022.

While completing her MQF degree, Denali was team captain of the UC San Diego Women’s Basketball Team. She was recognized with numerous academic and athletic honors, including the Big West Commissioner’s Honor Roll (Highest Honors), UCSDTritons.com Athlete of the Week, All-Big West Honorable Mention, CSC Academic All-District Team, and Big West Winter All-Academic Team.

Denali completed her master’s thesis under the supervision of Dr. Thomas Corringham (CW3E/SIO) and Dr. Michael Melvin (Rady School of Management), focusing on quantifying current and future flood risk and evaluating the insurance landscape in Imperial Beach, CA, and assessing innovative insurance solutions for vulnerable coastal communities.

At CW3E, Denali’s work focuses on examining the impacts of extreme weather events on communities and understanding risk management strategies to enhance community resilience to severe weather.

CW3E Welcomes Dr. Wen-Shu Lin

September 26, 2025

Wen-Shu Lin joined CW3E in October 2025 as a postdoctoral scholar. She earned a B.S. in Atmospheric Science at National Taiwan University (2019) and a Ph.D. in Oceanography at University of California San Diego (2025). She joined CW3E as a Ph.D. student in 2019, co-advised by Dr. Joel Norris and Dr. Marty Ralph. Her Ph.D. research focused on the characteristics, precipitation, and subseasonal predictability of the atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the western North America, with a particular emphasis on the flavors of ARs. She investigated the physical mechanisms leading to the extreme weather events, as well as the regional climate on subseasonal timescale.

Wen-Shu’s postdoctoral research will focus on the interaction between shortwave troughs and atmospheric rivers, as well as their impacts on the forecasts of landfalling atmospheric rivers along the U.S. West Coast.

CW3E Welcomes Jackson Ludtke

September 26, 2025

Jackson Ludtke joined CW3E in September 2025 as a research data analyst. He graduated from UC San Diego in June 2025 with a B.A. in Urban Studies and Planning, as well as minors in Geosciences and Climate Change Studies. He has worked with CW3E as a student since 2022, doing flight planning for AR Recon. He also completed two independent research courses and an internship as part of his senior capstone project with CW3E, which looked at the relationship between flooding impacts and disadvantaged communities in San Diego.

In the summer of 2023, Jackson did an internship with NOAA’s Aircraft Operations Center, helping to streamline flight operations. In 2024, he completed a research project on aircraft engine emissions for the FAA’s Office of Environment and Energy. He also worked for UC San Diego’s Athletic Department in the Travel Office. He is excited to continue his work experience with operations and logistics with CW3E.

At CW3E, he will be working with the AR Recon team and is looking forward to contributing to the broad scope of research and operations the center oversees. In his free time, he can be found playing baseball and tennis, surfing, exploring maps, traveling, and flying.

CW3E Welcomes Dr. Alex Chen

September 25, 2025

Alex Chen joined CW3E in September 2025 as a Research to Operations Hydrologist.

Prior to joining CW3E, Alex was a Postdoctoral Scholar in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of California, Davis, where he led research projects leveraging the hydrologic ensemble forecasts and adaptive reservoir operations methods to support ongoing Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) efforts and assess FIRO’s broader applicability.

Alex also brings operational forecasting experience from his time as a Hydrologist at the NOAA/NWS California-Nevada River Forecast Center, where he supported day-to-day hydrologic operations, including short-range river and flood forecasts and long-range water supply forecasts. He provided impact-based decision support services for local, state, and federal partner agencies and contributed to research efforts aimed at enhancing the capabilities of operational hydrologic modeling systems for snowmelt runoff and seasonal water supply forecasting.

In his new role on the CW3E Hydrology Team, Alex will work on advancing hydrologic and water management modeling capabilities and collaborates closely with operational forecasters and water managers to support the transition of hydrologic research into practical applications. He earned his PhD in Civil Engineering from University of Virginia.