Author: cw3e-web

CW3E Publication Notice: Association of Western US compound hydrometeorological extremes with Madden-Julian oscillation and ENSO interaction

CW3E Publication Notice

Association of western US compound hydrometeorological extremes with Madden-Julian oscillation and ENSO interaction

June 18, 2024

A new paper entitled “Association of western US compound hydrometeorological extremes with Madden-Julian oscillation and ENSO interaction” was recently published in Nature Communications Earth & Environment and authored by CW3E researcher Jiabao Wang, Mike DeFlorio (CW3E), Alexander Gershunov (CW3E), Kristen Guirguis (CW3E), Luca Delle Monache (CW3E Director of Research), and Marty Ralph (CW3E Director). As part of CW3E’s 2019-2024 Strategic Plan, CW3E seeks to improve understanding of the subseasonal (2-6 week lead) and seasonal (6-week to 6-month lead) predictability of extreme weather over the western US and develop a comprehensive understanding of the physics and the probabilistic and statistical characteristics of extreme events in the West to inform current and future resource and risk management. This study discovered a strong linkage between variability in the occurrence frequency of boreal winter hydrometeorological (precipitation and temperature) compound extremes over the western US and the dominant subseasonal predictability source in the tropics, Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), and showed that the linkage is largely dependent on ENSO phases. This research was sponsored by the California Department of Water Resources Atmospheric River Program.

Four different types of compound extremes are examined in this study: compound dry conditions and warm spells (dry-hot), compound extreme precipitation and cold spells (wet-cold), compound dry conditions and cold spells (dry-cold), and compound extreme precipitation and warm spells (wet-hot). We find that the occurrence frequency of compound extremes over the western US changes significantly with the eastward movement of MJO convection. When the MJO is located over the Maritime Continent (Phases 4-5), the frequency of dry-hot extremes tends to increase and wet-cold extremes tend to decrease over most of the western US (Fig. 1). When the MJO is located over the western Pacific (Phases 6-7), more wet-cold extremes and less dry-cold extremes are likely to occur over the southwestern US. The MJO-compound extreme relationship, however, changes significantly in response to different ENSO phases. The ENSO impacts are manifested as either opposite-sign signals of extreme event frequency in response to MJO or different magnitudes of MJO influence between the two ENSO phases (Fig. 1).

Variations in the MJO-compound extreme relationship associated with ENSO originate from the different MJO teleconnection patterns (Fig. 2). When the MJO is over the Indian Ocean or western Pacific (Phases 2-3 and 6-7), its teleconnections tend to extend more eastward in El Niño years and MJO impacts tend to persist longer during El Niño; while in La Niña, although the amplitude of MJO teleconnections is stronger, the responses are more offshore and thus MJO impacts are generally weaker. As a result, the response in compound extremes is more significant during these MJO phases in El Niño years than in La Niña years. For the other MJO phases (Phases 8-1 and 4-5), an opposite response in MJO teleconnections along the US West Coast is seen between two ENSO phases, leading to the opposite response in the compound extremes.

Figure 1. Averages of absolute changes in compound extreme frequency (unit: %) over a California and b the Pacific Northwest (Washington/Oregon). Four different categories of compound extremes are shown: wet-cold, dry-hot, wet-hot, and dry-cold extremes. Brown bars indicate the changes after active MJO phases in all years; Blue and green stripped bars represent the seasonal changes in active El Niño and La Niña years, respectively; Blue and green solid bars show the averages for each MJO phase in active El Niño and La Niña years, respectively. The numbers in each figure represent the climatological frequency of that compound extreme type over that region. The asterisks indicate the significance of the changes based on the bootstrap test.

The findings in this study uncover a strong intraseasonal variation in the MJO-related compound extremes and demonstrate a need to consider the impacts of both the intraseasonal modulation and the seasonal background state when predicting temperature and precipitation at subseasonal and seasonal lead times relevant to water managers and other end users across the western US.

Figure 2. 5–9-day averaged lagged response of 25-90-day filtered 500hPa geopotential height anomalies (Z500a; shading: m) and 850–700-hPa integrated vapor transport anomalies (IVTa; vectors: kg m−1 s−1) to MJO activity at day 0 [OLR contour: green (brown) represents enhanced (suppressed) convection, interval: 5 W m−2] in all years, El Niño years, and La Niña years. The dotted areas represent the significant Z500a exceeding the 90% confidence level. Vectors that are shown are significant IVTa.

Wang, J., DeFlorio, M. J., Gershunov, A., Guirguis, K., Delle Monache, L., & Ralph, F. M. (2024). Association of western US compound hydrometeorological extremes with Madden-Julian oscillation and ENSO interaction. Communications Earth & Environment, 5, 314. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01449-w

CW3E Publication Notice: Response of Sea Surface Temperature to Atmospheric Rivers

CW3E Publication Notice

Response of Sea Surface Temperature to Atmospheric Rivers

June 18, 2024

A new article titled “Response of sea surface temperature to atmospheric rivers” by Tien-Yiao Hsu (SIO /CW3E), Matthew R. Mazloff (SIO), Sarah T. Gille (SIO), Mara A. Freilich (Brown University), Rui Sun (SIO/CW3E) and Bruce D. Cornuelle (SIO) was published in Nature Communications on June 12, 2024. This work investigates the impact of atmospheric rivers (ARs) on sea surface temperature (SST) over the North Pacific by analyzing 25 years of ocean reanalysis data using an SST budget equation. Authors show that in the region of strong ocean modification, ocean dynamics can offset over 100% of the anomalous SST warming that would otherwise arise from atmospheric forcing (Figure 1). Among all ocean processes, ageostrophic advection and vertical mixing (diffusion and entrainment) are the most important factors in modifying the SST tendency response. The SST tendency response to ARs varies spatially. For example, in coastal California, the driver of enhanced SST warming is the reduction in ageostrophic advection due to anomalous southerly winds. Moreover, there is a large region where the SST shows a warming response to ARs due to the overall reduction in the total clouds and subsequent increase in total incoming shortwave radiation. This work adds tangible understanding to the Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Extreme Weather priority area in CW3E’s Strategic Plan, where SST prediction is a crucial boundary condition.

Figure 1. (Figure 5 from Hsu et al. 2024). The response of sea surface temperature (SST) tendency to atmospheric rivers (ARs), decomposed into distinct contributing processes. Variables shown are: (a) Θ̅̇loc, (b) Θ̅̇ocn, (c) Θ̅̇adv, (d) Θ̅̇mix, (e) Θ̅̇det, (f) Θ̅̇sfc, (g) Θ̅̇sw, (h) Θ̅̇lw, (i) Θ̅̇sen, and (j) Θ̅̇lat. Each panel shows the mean of the composite anomalous SST tendency associated with a particular process (shading) and its standard deviation (contours). Dotted areas show response regions that pass the significance test (p = 0.05). For each grid point, we compute the mean and standard deviation by grouping all of the AR day data. The significance test is tested against the climatology group, i.e., every single day. The anomalous SST tendencies Θ̅̇dilu and Θ̅̇hdiff are very small such that they are not shown.

Hsu, T.-Y., Mazloff, M. R., Gille, S. T., Freilich, M. A., Sun, R., & Cornuelle, B. D. (2024). Response of sea surface temperature to atmospheric rivers. Nature Communications, 15, 508. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48486-9

Science, Policies, Projects, and People: Seventh Annual Yampa Basin Rendezvous Highlights the Ingredients for Water Resiliency in the Yampa Basin

Science, Policies, Projects, and People: Seventh Annual Yampa Basin Rendezvous Highlights the Ingredients for Water Resiliency in the Yampa Basin

June 18, 2024

The 7th Annual Yampa Basin Rendezvous (YBR) was held 29th-30th May 2024, serving to highlight the multiple complementary ways that the region is working towards increasing climate and water resilience in the face of a changing future climate. The conference was held at the Allbright Auditorium at Colorado Mountain College’s Steamboat Springs campus and was organized by representatives from a plethora of organizations devoted to this goal, including the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Friends of the Yampa (FOTY), Yampa Valley Sustainability Council (YVSC), Colorado Mountain College (CMC), the Upper Yampa Water Conservancy District, River Network, Yampatika, The Nature Conservancy, and the Community Agriculture Alliance.

CW3E’s Dr. Deanna Nash presents to YBR attendees on the role of Atmospheric Rivers in Colorado’s precipitation and snowpack patterns. Photo Credit: Nathan Stewart.

This year’s conference theme, “Connecting the Drops: Linking Weather, Watersheds, and Communities for a Resilient Water Future”, highlights the interwoven and interdisciplinary nature of the path to water resiliency, with connection between diverse communities being the key to success. In that vein, YBR 2024 provided a forum for experts in the disparate fields of science and research, policy and advocacy, land management and project implementation, and science communication and outreach to share their work and ideas, with a focus on the Yampa River Basin. The two days of the conference featured three panel sessions each examining a different aspect of climate and water resilience. The panel sessions were complemented by ample opportunity for networking and casual conversations including two Field Excursions and an evening Community Showcase & Happy Hour event.

The first day of the conference opened with welcoming remarks from outgoing President of CMC and long-time YBR attendee, Dr. Carrie Besnette Hauser, who spoke of the close ties between CMC and the rivers that run through its district. She drew analogy between the founding stories of both CMC and YBR as small, dedicated groups of citizens banding together to advocate for something they believed was important to the rural Western Slope communities they cared deeply about. Dr. Hauser’s remarks were followed by speakers from the first panel, who together examined the State of the Science and Policy. This panel featured talks from Becky Bolinger, Colorado’s Assistant State Climatologist; Kelly Romero-Heaney, Assistant Director of Water Policy for the Department of Natural Resources; and Deanna Nash, CW3E Postdoctoral Researcher. Deanna shared her latest CW3E research into the role of atmospheric rivers on precipitation in Colorado and the Yampa Basin, including the potential role of atmospheric rivers as “drought busters”. Next, the second panel showcased examples of Connected Land-Water Planning and Management. The invited speakers were Andrea Harbin Monahan of the Colorado Water Conservation Board; Andy Rossi of the Upper Yampa Water Conservancy District, and 5th-generation Yampa Valley rancher Kyle Monger, who shared his perspectives from decades of family ranching operations on the Yampa River.

During the lunch break, YBR attendees were treated to a surprise visit by members of the Colorado State Legislature. Colorado Governor Jared Polis, Senator Dylan Roberts, House Speaker Julie McCluskie, and Representative Meghan Lukens visited the conference to sign two important pieces of water legislation into law. The bills, HB24-1362 and SB24-197, aim to help the State increase resilience to drought in the basin by incentivising greywater recycling, and by implementing recommendations from the Colorado River Drought Task Force. Their visit signifies a growing recognition of YBR as a venue for driving change on this issue and for channeling research and knowledge into action.

Gov. Polis signs SB24-197 at this year’s YBR. The bill implements some of the recommendations from the Colorado River Drought Task Force. Photo Credit: Madison Muxworthy.

In the afternoon, participants ventured out on a field excursion to a climate and soil moisture monitoring station operated by the Y-BASIN project team. The Y-BASIN project is a partnership between CW3E, YVSC, and CMC and supported by the Upper Yampa Water Conservancy District, Colorado River District, and Colorado Water Conservation Board. Participants learned from CW3E Director Marty Ralph and YVSC Director Michelle Stewart about the goals of the Y-BASIN project and the importance of soil moisture measurements in accurately predicting seasonal water availability. They inspected the station and its sensors up close, and had the chance to collect their own soil moisture measurements using handheld probes, led by USFS Soil Scientist Ryan Adams. The field excursion was immediately followed by the Community Showcase event, which featured posters, booths, and other presentations from community organizations in an informal setting with conversation stimulated by light refreshments. The venue, right on the banks of the Yampa River, provided a charming opportunity to reflect on the day’s learning.

The next morning, returning attendees were welcomed by CW3E Director Dr. Marty Ralph, who reflected on the importance of YBR to CW3E’s mission and the history of the relationship between the center and the Yampa Basin. Dr. Ralph also showcased some of the critical research advancements in climate and water resiliency that the Center has been a part of and continues to work on. The third panel highlighted the work of communicators in the Yampa Basin. Filmmaker Cody Perry and journalist Luke Runyon shared their perspectives on storytelling around rivers and water in Colorado and Jessica Counts, of local non-profit YVPS3, shared her work on furthering education and career opportunities for young students in the Yampa Valley.

Field excursion attendees learn about soil moisture monitoring for water resource management at one of the Y-BASIN climate and soil moisture monitoring stations. Photo Credit: Nathan Stewart.

For the afternoon field excursion, participants were joined by invited speakers CJ Mucklow, Jeremiah Psiropoulos, Bill Badaracca, and Mark Monger, all local landowners and experts in ecology, ranching, and land management. The field party visited a series of ranches in the Elk River drainage to compare landscape characteristics in the presence and absence of beavers and BDA (beaver dam analogue) structures. The speakers not only discussed the challenges of managing the impacts of beaver activity on ranch operations, but also passionately emphasized the myriad benefits they can bring to both the rancher and the ecosystem thanks to their modulation of water movement through the landscape.

The end of the field excursion marked the end of the official YBR program, although participants were eager to continue their conversations into the evening at FOTY’s State of the Yampa Address and over the weekend at the Yampa River Festival. The sharing of knowledge and the connections made at this year’s conference will surely contribute to a better informed and more energized Yampa Basin community as we strive for a more sustainable and resilient future.

– Yampa Basin Rendezvous 2024 Steering Committee

CW3E Publication Notice: Rainfall intensification amplifies exposure of American Southwest to conditions that trigger postfire debris flows

CW3E Publication Notice

Rainfall intensification amplifies exposure of American Southwest to conditions that trigger postfire debris flows

June 12, 2024

A new paper entitled “Rainfall intensification amplifies exposure of American Southwest to conditions that trigger postfire debris flows” was recently published in Nature’s journal npj Natural Hazards. This work was authored by Matt Thomas (U.S. Geological Survey), Allison Michaelis (Northern Illinois University/CW3E affiliate), Nina Oakley (California Geological Survey/CW3E affiliate), Jason Kean (U.S. Geological Survey), Victor Gensini (Northern Illinois University) and Walker Ashley (Northern Illinois University).

Postfire debris flows pose a threat to life, property, and infrastructure in many mountainous areas of the Southwest. When areas of steep terrain with susceptible geologic and hydrologic characteristics are burned at moderate to high severity, short duration (<1 hour), high-intensity rainfall can trigger postfire debris flows. For some areas, debris-flow triggering rainfall intensities can be as low as 0.25 inches in 15 minutes. Minimum triggering thresholds in the Southwest are often less than the 2-year recurrence interval at the 15-minute duration. In a changing climate, with increasing wildfire activity and rainfall intensification, the question arises, how will postfire debris flow hazard change? Previous work demonstrated that debris flow probability is most sensitive to rainfall intensification. Thus, this study focuses on exceedance of estimated debris-flow rainfall thresholds across the Southwest using downscaled climate model projections to address this question.

In this work, authors use dynamically downscaled (3.75 km) convection-permitting simulations of short duration (15-min) rainfall for a historic period (1990-2005) and late century period (2085-2100) using both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios, developed by Gensini et al. (2022 ). Model output at high spatial and temporal resolutions relevant to postfire debris flows are very recent; we are just beginning to have sufficient information to address the questions of postfire debris-flow hazard changes in a warming climate. Statistical methods were applied to allow for comparison between the downscaled model output and rainfall thresholds for debris flows issued by the USGS for burn areas across the Southwest.

Figure 1. (Fig. 4 from Thomas et al., 2024): a) Box and whisker plots that track changes in the exceedance ratio of 15-minute rainfall intensity thresholds for the HIST, FUT4.5, and FUT8.5 simulation scenarios for mountainous terrain throughout California and Colorado (Figs. 2, 3, Supplementary Fig. 1), as well as for 175 burned areas across the American Southwest (i.e., Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) where the U.S. Geological Survey issued rainfall thresholds as part of emergency assessments of postfire debris-flow hazards between 2014 and 2022 (Fig. 1a, Supplementary Fig. 1). The boxes in (a) are bound by the first and third quartile, with the median indicated by a line, and the whiskers extend from the boxes to the farthest data point within 1.5 times the inter-quartile range. The bar plots illustrate differences in the seasonality of rainfall threshold exceedance for mountainous terrain throughout (b) California and (c) Colorado.

Results indicate that while seasonality of over threshold precipitation events remains similar in climate projections for the regions studied (b and c above), both the magnitude (a, above) and frequency (below) of threshold exceedances increases in both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios compared to historic. A greater magnitude of threshold exceedance indicates the potential for larger volume, more damaging debris flows. An increased frequency of over-threshold events indicates we may expect more opportunities for debris flows to occur before burn areas can sufficiently recover.

For California in particular, the largest increases in threshold exceedances per year are most prominent in the North Coast Range and Klamath Mountain geomorphic provinces in the RCP 4.5 scenario. Threshold exceedance frequency further increases in these areas and expands to include the Sierra Nevada province in the RCP 8.5 scenario (figure below). These areas historically have experienced less frequent postfire debris-flow activity than Southern California, where damaging events are commonplace. Communities, emergency managers, and weather forecasters in the Northern California areas projected to see an increase in over-threshold precipitation may be less accustomed to contending with postfire debris flow hazards as compared to their counterparts in Southern California. This study highlights the increased hazard potential and benefits of prefire planning, education, and outreach for postfire hazards.

Figure 1. (Fig. 2 from Thomas et al., 2024): State of California with an overlay of scatter plots that reflect 15-min rainfall intensity threshold (equivalent to a one-year recurrence interval under the present climate) exceedances in mountainous terrain for the WRF-BCC HIST, FUT4.5, and FUT8.5 simulation scenarios. Several areas are labeled for reference, including “KLM” (Klamath Mountains), “NCR” (Northern Coast Ranges), “Sierra Nevada” (SNV), “SCR” (Southern Coast Ranges), “TRV” (Transverse Ranges), and “PNR” (Peninsular Ranges). State boundaries provided by U.S. Census Bureau.

This work addresses the CW3E Strategic Plan priority area of “Monitoring and Projections of Climate Variability and Change”, and the area goal of advancing understanding and projections of extreme precipitation events. This work provides insight into how short-duration rainfall intensities conducive to postfire debris flows may change in the future in frequency, magnitude, space, and seasonality. The work also addresses the CW3E core value of Collaboration, as authors represent university as well as state and federal agencies.

Thomas, M.A., Michaelis, A.C., Oakley, N.S. et al. Rainfall intensification amplifies exposure of American Southwest to conditions that trigger postfire debris flows. npj Nat. Hazards 1, 14 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-024-00017-8

CW3E Welcomes Heather Dopke

CW3E Welcomes Heather Dopke

June 4, 2024

Heather is currently an undergraduate student at UCSD with a double major in Political Science – Public Law and Sociocultural Anthropology with minors in Law and Society and Psychology graduating in June 2025. She will be working with CW3E as a fiscal and administrative assistant under Lillian Gilmore and Laura Martin.

CW3E Welcomes Dr. Erfan Goharian

CW3E Welcomes Dr. Erfan Goharian

May 21, 2024

We are excited to announce that Dr. Erfan Goharian has joined the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) as the Water Resources Engineering R&D Manager.

Dr. Goharian is an Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of South Carolina (USC). His research, education, and practice nexus is centered on developing multi-source heterogeneous data fusion, artificial intelligence (AI), and systems analysis techniques to advance the smart and informed operation and management of water resources systems. Dr. Goharian and his team develop and deploy cutting-edge systems and modeling techniques to enhance informed decision-making of integrated water and environmental resources systems in the face of climate change and extreme events.

Moving to CW3E, Dr. Goharian will establish and lead the Water Resources Engineering Research and Development (WRE R&D) program. The CW3E WRE R&D Group is dedicated to advancing knowledge, fostering collaboration, and driving innovation at the intersection of academia, community, and partnerships. This initiative will promote multidisciplinary collaborations, with a focus on advancing intelligent and integrated modeling techniques, particularly to support the implementation of Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO). Our mission is to pioneer cutting-edge solutions in FIRO, comprehensive monitoring and forecasting of floods and droughts, integrated water resources modeling and management, and the application of machine learning and AI through fostering strong partnerships with local communities and stakeholders, and a focus on global leadership.

Previously, Dr. Goharian has led various projects funded by national agencies such as NOAA, NSF, USGS, and DoD, state agencies like the SC Sea Grants Consortium and SCDOT, and companies including Microsoft and Amazon. His publication record includes over 60 top-notch peer-reviewed journal papers and over 100 invited talks and conference presentations. Dr. Goharian has been honored with numerous prestigious awards, including the NSF CAREER Award, ASCE Young Civil Engineer of the Year, UCOWR Early Career Award, ASCE’s Best Research-Oriented Paper of the Year, ASCE Outstanding Reviewer awards, and served as a member of the South Carolina Floodwater Commission, appointed by Governor McMaster. He also serves as an associate editor of Nature’s Scientific Reports and the Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management.

CW3E is thrilled to welcome Dr. Erfan Goharian and looks forward to the significant contributions he will bring to our team and the broader water resources community.

Kyle Hurley Recognized as a 2024 Triton Student Employee of the Year for His Role in the 2024 AR Recon Season

May 13, 2024

At this year’s CW3E Annual Meeting we will be acknowledging the achievement of Kyle Hurley, a UCSD undergraduate student, as a 2024 UCSD Triton Student Employee of the Year, for his role in AR Recon.

In 2022, Kyle met with one of CW3E’s Atmospheric River Reconnaissance (AR Recon) program mission directors and expressed interest in becoming involved. He joined the team for the 2022-2023 season to support the AR Recon flight planning process and continued in this role through the 2023-2024 season. Flight tracks for these missions are developed in Google Earth and finalized using IDL coding on a Linux server and require close coordination between CW3E staff and collaborators around the world. Kyle’s position requires him to start as early as 6 am, update a variety of background fields in Google Earth to support flight track design decision-making by the team, create draft flight tracks, present them during weather briefings, revise them on-the-fly as needed with feedback from senior scientists and aircraft personnel, and then produce and provide dropsonde coordinate and spacing information on a tight and inflexible timeline. He quickly learned this process during his first season and has even helped improve upon its functionality. During his training, he was able to provide key support that streamlined the process ahead of briefings. However, he quickly showed enough skill that empowered him to lead the tool on his own without much supervision. Kyle fully embraced this opportunity and excelled in the high-pressure work. This year, there were several pre-flight issues due to the position of the jet stream causing turbulence along our tracks. So, in addition to his regular duties, Kyle was asked to make last-minute flight track adjustments for same-day flights. He took this on with grace even though it further shrunk his already limited preparation time. He is always enthusiastic to get started each morning and can complete his tasks on deadline which requires close collaboration with the AR Recon team, including Air Force and NOAA personnel. As a bonus, he even brought in donuts and coffee for the group on several occasions.

The AR Recon team is very thankful for his contributions during the past two AR Recon seasons, and we hope he can join us again next season.

Congratulations Kyle, and job well done!

CW3E Authors Featured in latest volume of Mountain Views Chronicle

CW3E Authors Featured in latest volume of Mountain Views Chronicle

May 9, 2024

In the most recent volume of the Mountain Views Chronicle, CW3E authors Jeri Wilcox, Jacob Morgan, Anna Wilson, and El Knappe, were featured for writing a short article about the Y-BASIN Project, together with project collaborators Madison Muxworthy and Nathan Stewart. The Mountain Views Chronicle is the newsletter of the US Forest Service’s Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Mountains (CIRMOUNT). This newsletter is published to help inform citizens and scientists alike about developments in mountain research in the western US.

Volume 17 of the Mountain Views Chronicle, published on Earth Day 2024 (22nd April), encompasses a theme of “an exploration of science in community.” It highlights the interconnectedness of science with not only the environment that is being studied, but also the people who are a part of it. For this newsletter, the Y-BASIN collaborators submitted a short article, termed “Brevia,” which describes the collaborative nature of the Y-BASIN project and the benefits this has brought. The article explores the origins of the project, through the Yampa Basin Rendezvous, and how this origin set up the Y-BASIN effort to be one that is inherently connected to an interdisciplinary network of stakeholders, regional experts, and community members. The authors highlight the collaboration that is integrated throughout the project: during the station siting, station installations, data management, and engagement with the community surrounding the project.

To read the entire Brevia, check out the newsletter at the following link:https://www.fs.usda.gov/research/sites/default/files/2024-04/rmrs-cirmount_mountainviewsnewsletter_april2024.pdf

CW3E Hosts 5th Grade Students for Outreach Event on Scripps Pier

CW3E Hosts 5th Grade Students for Outreach Event on Scripps Pier

May 2, 2024

CW3E’s Jacob Morgan discusses the components of a
radiosonde while preparing a weather balloon for launch

On Tuesday, April 30th, CW3E staff hosted 90 students from the San Diego Unified School District for an educational outreach event on the Scripps Pier. The group included three classes of 5th grade students from the Chollas Creek Elementary School. During their visit to campus, CW3E staff spoke with the students about their research into atmospheric rivers and other types of high-impact precipitation conducted by our researchers. This event was hosted as part of an ongoing collaboration with Groundwork San Diego’s EarthLab Program, with the goal of providing students hands-on learning opportunities related to research conducted by CW3E and our partners.

The outreach event consisted of three stations – including a weather-centric station on the Scripps Pier, a tide-pooling activity on the beach adjacent to Scripps campus, and an educational activity on Pawka Green. CW3E staff educated students on the important precipitation-related research conducted by the center, showed students the various weather sensing instruments employed by CW3E’s field team across California, and gave students hands-on demonstrations of our various equipment. Additionally, the students were able to participate in multiple weather balloon launch demonstrations from the pier, during which multiple students were able to help with the logistics of getting the balloon off the ground. Although these balloons were launched as part of an educational outreach event, their observations were transmitted in near real-time and assimilated into the global forecast models. In total, eight members of CW3E staff participated in this outreach event, including Ali Wolman, Jeri Wilcox, Adolfo Lopez-Miranda, Jacob Morgan, Sam Bartlett, Cody Poulsen, Pat Mulrooney, Shawn Roj, and Ricardo Vilela.

CW3E staff teach students about the various types of meteorological instruments
located on a weather stations CW3E maintains on the Scripps Pier

AR Recon Program Endorsement by World Meteorological Organization

AR Recon Program Endorsement by World Meteorological Organization

April 26, 2024

Atmospheric River Reconnaissance (AR Recon), a CW3E-led program in partnership with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the U.S. Air Force, was recently endorsed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as a World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) endorsed project.

The WMO WWRP promotes research to improve weather prediction and its impacts on society. The improvements in science and operational predictions are driven by international cooperation, and intended to drive sustainable development. As one of 10 WWRP endorsed projects, this represents a strong show of support for a key mission and a major programmatic milestone for AR Recon, which works to support improved prediction of landfalling atmospheric rivers on the U.S. West Coast.

Consistent with WWRP’s key objectives, AR Recon has developed the tools and network necessary to incrementally improve the warning process for extreme weather events, and reduce prediction uncertainty. Key sponsors have been the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the California Department of Water Resources, who are working with CW3E and other partners to advance their goals of using improved AR prediction to inform water and infrastructure management (e.g., for Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations – FIRO).

Since program inception, AR Recon observational campaigns have been conducted in collaboration with international experts from organizations including CW3E, Scripps Institution of Oceanograpy, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Naval Research Laboratory, the National Weather Service, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the U.S. Air Force, and other academic institutions. The operations to support these observational campaigns, which now run from November 1st through March 31st, continue to increase in pace and intensity as capability is added and the geographic area of interest expands globally.

We would like to express our appreciation to the WMO for selecting AR Recon for the WWRP. We look forward to engaging further with the WMO and international partners to support WWRP objectives through AR Recon.

For more detailed information about the AR Recon program, please see the AR Recon webpage.