Author: cw3e-web

CW3E Participates in Thriving Earth Exchange Project

CW3E Participates in Thriving Earth Exchange Project

December 19, 2019

CW3E Field Researcher, Carly Ellis, was invited to speak to AGU Thriving Earth Exchange’s new Fellows on December 7 during their two-day fellowship workshop in San Francisco. Thriving Earth Exchange is a program that connects community leaders to scientists who can work together to solve local challenges related to natural resources, climate change, and natural hazards. Carly has been working with Thriving Earth Exchange on a community-based project in San Diego for about ten months. She is one of two Science Liaisons for the Chollas Creek project, in which 4th and 5th grade students are assessing long-term trash deposition in Chollas Creek. The kids plan to present their findings to the public, as well as local council members on Earth Day 2020. For more information on the Chollas Creek project, please go to https://thrivingearthexchange.org/project/sandiego-ca/.

Carly helps students from a local elementary school collect data along a 100 ft section of Chollas Creek

CW3E at AGU 2019

CW3E at AGU 2019

December 18, 2019

CW3E participated in the recent 2019 American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting held in San Francisco, CA from 9-13 December. Graduate students, postdocs, and staff convened sessions, spoke, and presented posters. The list below covers CW3E personnel activities. Links include abstracts, as well as audio presentations (when available) and other supplementary materials.

Astitha M., L.D. Monache, and F. Cannon. A34C- Extreme Weather Events: Forecast Skill, Uncertainty Quantification, and Impact Modeling I

Astitha M., L.D. Monache, and F. Cannon. A31O – Extreme Weather Events: Forecast Skill, Uncertainty Quantification, and Impact Modeling II Posters

Ban Z., T. Das, D.R. Cayan, M. Xiao, and D.P. Lettenmaier. H23J-2036- Understanding the Role of Asymmetrical Warming on Streamflow Changes in the Western U.S. Using a Multi-model Approach

Brandt T., F. Cannon, J. Dozier. H33P-2239- Assessing WRF’s Seasonal Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE) in California’s Sierra Nevada Using the Airborne Snow Observatory

Borsa A.A., S. Adusumilli, W. Neely, and F.M. Ralph. H33O-2228- Atmospheric river precipitation drives rapid terrestrial water storage variability in the western United States

Candido S., A. Singh, and L.D. Monache. A21O-2769- Distilling an Analog Ensemble into a Deep Neural Network

Cannon F., R.R. Weihs, L. Isaac, and L.D. Monache. H31D-07- An Ensemble-Based Evaluation of WRF Precipitation Forecast Uncertainty in California Watersheds

Cao B., J.S. Haase, M.J. Alexander, M. Bramberger, M.J. Murphy, and F.M. Ralph. SA23B-3127- Investigation of inertia gravity waves observed by dropsonde and airborne Radio Occultation during an Atmosphere River event in the northeast Pacific

Cao Q., M.J. Deflorio, F.M. Ralph, and D.P. Lettenmaier. H13F-03- Evaluation of the subseasonal forecast skill of AR-related flooding along the coastal Western U.S.

Cayan D. R., J.P. Goodrich, M. Buhler, and D. Dulen. GC44B-03 – Cold Air Pooling during Summer Heat Waves in California’s Sierra Nevada

Cifelli R., A.M. Wilson, A. Dufour, T.W. Parzybok, M.D. Dettinger, J.A. Vano, F. Munoz-Arriola, and K.A. Miller. PA34A-07- Toward Greater Resilient Water Infrastructure to Future Hydrometeorological and Climate Extremes: Lessons from Oroville Dam and Hurricane Harvey

Corringham T., F.M. Ralph, A. Gershunov, D.R. Cayan, and C.A. Talbot. H14G-06 – A scale of atmospheric river intensity captures the economic impacts of flooding in the western United States

Deflorio M., D.E. Waliser, F. M.Ralph, L.D. Monache, P. Gibson, B. Guan, A. Goodman, Z. Zhang, A. Gershunov, T. Shulgina, K. Guirguis, S. Asharaf, A. Subramanian, F. Vitart, H. Lin, and A. Kumar. H31G-04- Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction of Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation over the Western United States

Delaney C., M. Konieczki, R. Hartman, J. Mendoza, J. Jasperse, F.M. Ralph, and C. Talbot. H13S-2031- A Risk-Based Decision Support System for Flood Operations of Lake Mendocino in Water Year 2019

Dettinger M.D., H14E-02- Drought Indicators for the Western US with Climate Change in Mind

Fish M.A., A.M. Wilson, J. Done, and F.M. Ralph. GC52A-01- Large-scale drivers of connected atmospheric rivers along the US West Coast

Gibson P.B., D.E. Waliser, B. Guan, M. DeFlorio, F.M. Ralph, and D.L. Swain. A24A-04- Ridging associated with drought across the Western United States: S2S predictability sources and model skill

Guan B., D.E. Waliser, and F.M. Ralph. A34F-04- Lightning Characteristics Associated with Atmospheric Rivers Affecting the Continental US Using the GOES-16/17 Geostationary Lightning Mappers

Harpold A.A., P.D. Brooks, M. Kohler, J. Sturtevant, B. Gordon, and M.D. Dettinger. H11J-1630- How Ready Is The Hydrologic Sciences For the Loss of Seasonal Snowpacks (And What Can Be Done)?

Katz L.J., A.A. Harpold, M.D. Dettinger, S.A. Drake, K.S. Jennings, and S. Rajagopal. H51P-1700- Catch or Release? Sensitivity of Extreme Rain-on-Snow Responses to Snowpack Mass and Energy Balances in California’s Northern Sierra Nevada, USA

Knowles N., D.R. Cayan, C. Cronkite-Ratcliff, M.D. Dettinger, A.L. Flint, L.E. Flint, T. Fregoso, J.J. Helly, B.E. Jaffe, H. Kernkamp, L.V. Lucas, R. Martyr-Koller, T. Morgan-King, D.W. Pierce, D. Roelvink, D.H. Schoellhamer, M.A. Stern, A. van Dam, S. van der Pijl, M. Van der Wegen, J. Vroom, and S.A. Wright. H52D-03- Climate-to-ecosystem integrated modeling in the San Francisco Bay-Delta estuary: An overview of the CASCaDE project (Part 1—Modeling of physical processes)

Lamjiri M.A., F.M. Ralph, and M.D. Dettinger. A43O-3034- Recent Changes in United States Extreme Precipitation as Indicated by Excursions on the R-CAT Scale

Mascioli N., A.T. Evan, and F.M. Ralph. A34B-05- Influence of dust on landfalling atmospheric rivers in an idealized framework

Nguyen P., E.J. Shearer, M. Ombadi, V.A. Gorooh, K. Hsu, S. Sorooshian, W.S. Logan IV, and F.M. Ralph. H22D-06PDIR- (PERSIANN Dynamic Infrared – Rain rate) model for high-resolution, real-time satellite precipitation estimation

Oakley N., F. Cannon, E. Boldt, J.L. Dumas, and F.M. Ralph. H11N-1708- Origins and Variability of Extreme Precipitation in the Santa Ynez River Basin of Southern California

Osborne T. C., J.R. Norris, A.M. Wilson, B. Henn, B. Hatchett, and F.M. Ralph. A53L-3074- Extreme Changes in Atmospheric Snow Level Observed by FM-CW Snow Level Radars During California Storms

Payne A.E., C.A. Shields, J.J. Rutz, L.R. Leung, T.A. O’Brien, F.M. Ralph, and M.F. Wehner. A41E-03- Atmospheric Rivers in a Changing Climate: An Overview from the Second Phase of the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP)

Pierce D.W. and D.R. Cayan. A51Q-2839- Downscaling IPCC Scenarios to the Hourly Level: Projected Changes in Energy Demand and Chill Hours in California

Reynolds C.A., R. Stone, J.D. Doyle, N.L. Baker, R. Langland, F.M. Ralph, D. Lavers, and P. Papin. A31M-2880- Experiments using Atmospheric River Reconnaissance Dropsondes

Ryoo J., S. Chiao, R.J. Spackman, L.T. Iraci, F.M. Ralph, A. Martin, J.E. Marrero, E.L Yates, R.M. Dole, T.V. Bui, J.M. Dean-Day, and C.S. Chang. A51O-2868- Formation of Terrain Trapped Airflows in Northern California during Atmospheric Rivers and its impact on Precipitation: A Case Study using Measurements and Model

Sturtevant J., M.D. Dettinger, S.A. McAfee, S. Rajagopal, and A.A. Harpold. H33P-2246- Improving Regression-Based Water Supply Forecasts following Snow Droughts in the Western U.S.

Sumargo E., R.R. Weihs, and A.M. Wilson. H51U-1803- Profiling of Soil Moisture Variability and Its Role in Rainfall-Runoff Generation in Northern California’s Russian River Watershed

Wilson, A.M. EP53D-16 – Rivers in the Sky – Why I Study the Earth’s Atmospheric Processes (Invited)

Wilson, A.M., F. M. Ralph, J. Jasperse, and C.A. Talbot. PA34B-11 – Exploring Novel Strategies to Enhance Use of Existing Water Management Infrastructure: Collecting Unique Observations with Local Partners (Invited)

CW3E AR Update: 17 December 2019 Outlook

CW3E AR Update: 17 December 2019 Outlook

December 17, 2019

Click here for a pdf of this information.

A landfalling AR will bring heavy rainfall and mountain snowfall to the Pacific Northwest this week

  • A landfalling AR is forecast to impact Northern CA, OR, and WA during 18–21 Dec
  • Some areas along the Oregon Coast may experience AR conditions for more than 48 hours
  • At least 3-7 inches of rainfall is expected over the Oregon Coast Ranges, Olympic Mountains, and Cascade Mountains over the next 5 days, with more than 1 foot of snow possible in the North Cascades

Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of GFS analyses/forecasts

Valid 1200 UTC 17 December – 1200 UTC 23 December 2019


 

 

 

 

 

 

Summary provided by C. Castellano, B.Kawzenuk, F. M. Ralph; 17 December 2019

CW3E Scientist Dr. Mike DeFlorio Participates in 2nd Meridional Modes Workshop and High School Science Outreach Activity

CW3E Scientist Dr. Mike DeFlorio Participates in 2nd Meridional Modes Workshop and High School Science Outreach Activity

December 16, 2019

CW3E scientist Dr. Mike DeFlorio recently participated in the 2nd Meridional Modes Workshop, hosted by Professor Zhengyu Liu at The Ohio State University in Columbus, OH. The purpose of the workshop was to discuss the current state of research on meridional modes (coupled ocean-atmosphere modes in the tropical/subtropical regions) and potential linkages between meridional modes and seasonal predictability of ridging and precipitation over North America and other regions.

The workshop began with a presentation by Dr. Dillon Amaya (UCSD-Scripps), who gave a review of the Pacific Meridional Mode and its relationship to the Blob 2.0 warm SST anomaly pattern in the North Pacific. CW3E scientist Dr. Mike DeFlorio then gave a presentation on North Pacific ridging events, their relationship to western U.S. drought, and potential sources of predictability (including the Pacific Meridional Mode). His presentation highlighted results led by Dr. Peter Gibson (NASA JPL/CalTech), whose paper on North Pacific ridging is now in press at Journal of Climate and was written with co-authors Dr. Duane Waliser (NASA JPL), Dr. Bin Guan (UCLA), Dr. Mike DeFlorio, CW3E Director Dr. F. Martin Ralph, and Dr. Daniel Swain (UCLA/NCAR). The final presentation of the morning was given by Dr. Emanuele Di Lorenzo (Georgia Tech), who spoke about meridional modes and tropical decadal variability under projected climate change scenarios.

The workshop concluded with three afternoon talks, the first of which was given by Dr. Jason Furtado (University of Oklahoma) on the potential usage of the Pacific Meridional Mode to improve forecasts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Improved forecasts of ENSO have the potential to benefit water management over the western U.S. through the well-known teleconnection between ENSO and boreal winter western U.S. precipitation. Dr. Sarah Larson (NC State) then spoke about the South Pacific Meridional Mode and its relationship to ENSO. The workshop concluded with a presentation from Dr. Zhengyu Liu on the extent to which extratropical circulation anomalies can impact ENSO in the tropics.

Figure 1: Group photo at 2nd Annual Meridional Modes Workshop, hosted by Professor Zhengyu Liu at The Ohio State University in Columbus, OH.

After the workshop, Dr. Mike DeFlorio and Dr. Art Miller (UCSD-Scripps) participated in an outreach event at Lutheran High School East (LHSE) in Cleveland, OH. Dr. Miller gave a presentation to LHSE Honors Academy students about potential careers in science. Dr. Mike DeFlorio contributed to this talk by offering his experience working at CW3E on science problems that impact resource management and society.

Figure 2: Group photo at outreach event for Lutheran High School East Honors Academy students in Cleveland, OH, featuring talk by Dr. Art Miller.

Amaya, D.J. (2019), The Pacific Meridional Mode and ENSO: a Review. Curr Clim Change Rep, 5, 296–307. doi:10.1007/s40641-019-00142-x.

Amaya, D. J., M. J. DeFlorio, A. J. Miller, and S.-P. Xie (2017), Wind-Evaporation-SST feedback and the Atlantic Meridional Mode: an observational analysis with CMIP5 comparisons. Cli Dyn, 49: 1665. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3411-1.

Gibson, P. B., D. E. Waliser, B. Guan, M. J. DeFlorio, F. M. Ralph, and D. L. Swain (2020), Ridging associated with drought in the Western and Southwestern United States: characteristics, trends, and predictability sources. J Climate, in press.

CW3E AR Update: 10 December Outlook

CW3E AR Update: 10 December 2019 Outlook

December 10, 2019

Click here for a pdf of this information.

An Atmospheric River is Forecast to Make Landfall over Southern Oregon and Northern California Tomorrow, 11 Dec. 2019

  • An AR is currently forecast to bring AR1/AR2 conditions to coastal locations from North/Central CA to WA
  • The potential development of a MFW is introducing large forecast uncertainty in the overall duration of AR conditions over Southern OR and Northern CA
  • Several high elevation locations from Northern CA to WA could receive >2 inches of precipitation in association with this event

Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of 0-180 hour GFS forecasts

Valid 1200 UTC 10 December – 0000 UTC 18 December 2019


 

CW3E West-WRF Forecast Products
 

 

 

 

NOAA Weather Prediction Center Forecasts
 

 

NOAA Weather Prediction Center Forecasts
 

Summary provided by C. Hecht, C. Castellano, B.Kawzenuk, F. M. Ralph; 3 PM PT 10 December 2019

CW3E Event Summary: 6-8 December 2019

CW3E Event Summary: 6-8 December 2019

December 9, 2019

Click here for a pdf of this information.

Landfalling AR brings another round of heavy rainfall and mountain snowfall to Northern CA

  • The AR was associated with a large midlatitude cyclone over the Northeast Pacific Ocean
  • Storm total precipitation exceeded 5 inches in some parts of the Coast Ranges, Klamath Mountains, and Sierra Nevada
  • Higher elevations in the Sierra Nevada received 1-2 feet of snow

    • MIMIC-TPW2 Total Precipitable Water

    Valid 0000 UTC 6 December – 0000 UTC 9 December 2019

    Images from CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Summary provided by C. Castellano, C. Hecht, B. Kawzenuk, and F. M. Ralph; 4 PM PST 9 December 2019

CW3E AR Update: 5 December 2019 Outlook

CW3E AR Update: 5 December 2019 Outlook

December 5, 2019

Click here for a pdf of this information.

Another storm to bring AR conditions and heavy precipitation to the U.S. West Coast

  • A landfalling AR associated with a large cyclone will produce heavy rainfall and mountain snowfall in Northern CA and southwestern OR on 6–8 Dec
  • A second landfalling AR further south will likely bring AR conditions and lighter rainfall amounts to Southern CA on 7–8 Dec
  • Long-range ensemble forecasts continue to suggest a period of less active weather over California next week

Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of GFS analyses/forecasts

Valid 1200 UTC 5 December – 1200 UTC 9 December 2019


 

 

 

 

 

 

Summary provided by C. Castellano, C. Hecht, B.Kawzenuk, J. Kalansky, F. M. Ralph; 5 December 2019

CW3E Publication Notice: A new satellite-based global climatology of dust aerosol optical depth

CW3E Publication Notice

A new satellite-based global climatology of dust aerosol optical depth

December 5, 2019

CW3E graduate student Kara Voss, with her advisor and co-author Amato Evan, recently published a paper in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology entitled, “A new satellite-based global climatology of dust aerosol optical depth” (Voss & Evan 2019). This paper describes and validates a new set of daily satellite observation-derived estimates of dust between 2001 and 2018. These new estimates compare well with ground-based estimates of dust over the southwestern U.S. and the Barbados. The daily estimates were then used to assess broad characteristics of the global dust cycle, including seasonality (Fig 1, below). This paper also investigates regional trends in dust between 2001 and 2018. It was found that dust has decreased over Asia and increased significantly over the Sahara, Middle East, and parts of Eastern Europe. Previous literature has indicated a link between trans-Pacific dust and precipitation over California during atmospheric rivers (ARs). Dust has the potential to enhance precipitation, as it is able to form ice in clouds at much warmer temperatures than ice would form without dust. However, limited observations of dust over the Pacific have made investigation of this process difficult. This set of estimates provides a new tool for investigating the relationship between dust and ARs.

Figure 1: Figure 10 from Voss and Evan (2019): a-d) Seasonal mean dust aerosol optical depth from the MODIS Terra averaged over the period from 2001 to 2018 and e-h) seasonal mean dust aerosol optical depth from AVHRR over the period from 1981 to 2018. The long-term global mean 1-sigma uncertainty over the ocean for each season and dataset is featured in the bottom left-hand corner of each panel.

Voss, K.K., and A. Evan, 2019: A new satellite-based global climatology of dust aerosol optical depth. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 0, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0194.1.

CW3E AR Update: 3 December 2019 Outlook

CW3E AR Update: 3 December 2019 Outlook

December 3, 2019

Click here for a pdf of this information.

Active weather pattern in California will continue through the end of this week

  • Multiple landfalling ARs are expected to bring additional heavy precipitation to California during the next 5 days
  • There is increasing forecast confidence in the likelihood of another landfalling AR in Southern CA on 7–8 Dec
  • Long-range ensemble forecasts suggest a possible shift in the weather pattern next week

    • Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of GFS analyses/forecasts

    Valid 1200 UTC 3 December – 1200 UTC 9 December 2019


     

     

     

     

     

    Summary provided by C. Castellano, C. Hecht, B.Kawzenuk, J. Kalansky, F. M. Ralph; 3 December 2019

CW3E Event Summary: 30 November – 2 December 2019

CW3E Event Summary: 30 November – 2 December 2019

December 2, 2019

Click here for a pdf of this information.

A long-duration AR helped produce heavy rainfall and mountain snowfall in central and northern CA

  • The AR was associated with a midlatitude cyclone that stalled over the Northeast Pacific Ocean
  • Precipitation amounts exceeded 5 inches in some parts of the California Coast Ranges and Sierra Nevada
  • Higher elevations in the Sierra Nevada received more than 2 feet of snow

    • MIMIC-TPW2 Total Precipitable Water

    Valid 0000 UTC 30 November – 1800 UTC 2 December 2019

    Images from CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Summary provided by C. Castellano, J. Kalansky, and F. M. Ralph; 2 December 2019