CW3E AR Update: 20 February 2020 Outlook
February 20, 2020
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A cutoff low and landfalling AR will bring moderate-to-heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern U.S.
- The interaction between a cutoff low off the California coast and tropical moisture over the Eastern Pacific will result in a landfalling AR over Baja California
- As time progresses, the AR will intensify and move northeastward across Arizona and New Mexico
- Some areas in southern AZ are forecast to experience AR2 conditions
- More than 0.5 inches of precipitation are forecast over portions of the southwestern U.S., with the highest amounts (> 1.5 inches) expected over the higher terrain in central and eastern AZ, as well as the San Juan Mountains in CO
Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of GFS analyses/forecasts
Valid 1200 UTC 20 February – 1200 UTC 23 February 2020
Summary provided by C. Castellano and F. M. Ralph; 20 February 2020
*Outlook products are considered experimental