CW3E AR Update: 20 February 2020 Outlook

February 20, 2020

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A cutoff low and landfalling AR will bring moderate-to-heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern U.S.

  • The interaction between a cutoff low off the California coast and tropical moisture over the Eastern Pacific will result in a landfalling AR over Baja California
  • As time progresses, the AR will intensify and move northeastward across Arizona and New Mexico
  • Some areas in southern AZ are forecast to experience AR2 conditions
  • More than 0.5 inches of precipitation are forecast over portions of the southwestern U.S., with the highest amounts (> 1.5 inches) expected over the higher terrain in central and eastern AZ, as well as the San Juan Mountains in CO

Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of GFS analyses/forecasts

Valid 1200 UTC 20 February – 1200 UTC 23 February 2020








Summary provided by C. Castellano and F. M. Ralph; 20 February 2020

*Outlook products are considered experimental