CW3E AR Update: 07 June 2022 Outlook
June 7, 2022
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Atmospheric River to Bring Precipitation to the Pacific Northwest
- A strong late-season atmospheric river consisting of two primary pulses is forecast to impact the Pacific Northwest later this week.
- The initial pulse of the AR will make landfall along the Oregon/Washington border on Thursday morning, followed by the period of highest intensity AR conditions on Thursday evening.
- Forecast models suggest the potential for a mesoscale frontal wave that could bring a secondary pulse of enhanced IVT to coastal Washington and Oregon on Friday.
- There is considerable uncertainty within the GFS and ECMWF models regarding the intensity of the latter portion of the AR event, potentially limiting or enhancing precipitation during the late stages of the event.
- This atmospheric river is forecasted to bring 2-3 inches of precipitation to mountainous regions of Washington and Oregon during the end of this week.
- A combination of heavy rain and seasonal snow melt could increase the potential for flooding over western and central Washington.
Click images to see loops of GFS IVT & IWV forecasts
Valid 1200 UTC 7 June – 1200 UTC 12 June 2022
Summary provided by S. Bartlett, C. Castellano, C. Hecht, S. Roj, J. Kalansky, and F. M. Ralph; 7 June 2022
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