CW3E Event Summary: 11-17 December 2020

CW3E Event Summary: 11-17 December 2020

December 18, 2020

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Active Weather Pattern Brings Multiple Episodes of Rain and Snow to the Western U.S.

  • Several ARs associated with a series of cyclones over the Northeast Pacific Ocean have impacted the Western U.S. during the past 7 days
  • These storms produced at least 2–5 inches of total precipitation in the Sierra Nevada, Cascades, and Pacific Coast Ranges, and lighter amounts across the Intermountain West
  • An estimated 1–3 feet of snow fell in the higher terrain of the Sierra Nevada, Cascades, and northeastern Nevada
  • Total water-year-to-date precipitation remains well-below normal across much of California

Click images to see loops of GFS IVT/IWV analyses

Valid 0000 UTC 11 December – 0000 UTC 18 December 2020


 

 

 

 

 

Summary provided by C. Castellano, C. Hecht, J. Kalansky, B. Kawzenuk, and F. M. Ralph; 18 December 2020

CW3E AR Update: 17 December 2020 Outlook

CW3E AR Update: 17 December 2020 Outlook

December 17, 2020

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Click images to see loops of GFS IVT & IWV forecasts

Valid 1200 UTC 17 December – 1200 UTC 27 December 2020


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Summary provided by C.Hecht, C. Castellano, J. Kalansky, and F. M. Ralph; 17 December 2020

*Outlook products are considered experimental

Data Science Post-Doctoral Position at CW3E

Data Science Post-Doctoral Position

Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E)

Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego

Location: La Jolla, California

To apply: Send CV, cover letter, and three references to Luca Delle Monache (ldm@ucsd.edu).

Deadline: Position is available immediately, but applicants will be considered until the position
is filled.

The Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, (CW3E; cw3e.ucsd.edu) is a research and applications center established in 2014 at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography by its Director, Dr. F. Martin Ralph. CW3E focuses on the physical understanding, observations, and predictions of extreme weather and water events to support effective policies and practices to improve resilience in the Western U.S. CW3E carries out its goals with a diverse network of research and operational partners at several other institutions across the U.S. and internationally. Individuals will be joining a group of several existing Postdoctoral scholars and graduate students, and a number of experienced faculty, researchers, and staff at Scripps who are involved with CW3E. CW3E upholds UC San Diego Principles of Community and is working toward increasing diversity and equity in the Geosciences.

CW3E seeks a Postdoctoral researcher with a background in machine learning or computational science to develop novel methods for the prediction of precipitation and atmospheric river-related quantities (e.g., Integrated Water Vapor Transport – IVT) over the Western U.S., for weather (0-10 days) and subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S; weeks to months) scales. The successful candidate will develop novel approaches based on machine learning, in combination with traditional postprocessing techniques, to significantly improve both deterministic and probabilistic predictions. Interpretable machine learning research is also a key focus of the work being carried out at CW3E, and various applications of this research are available for the successful candidate to work on.

Applicants should have 0-2 years of Postdoctoral experience or be nearing completion of their Ph.D. (estimated within 3 months) and be self-motivated and hard-working. Good written and verbal communication skills, including the ability to produce scientific publications and presentations and meet project milestones are required. Strong analytical backgrounds with a Ph.D. in computer science, atmospheric science, meteorology, climate science, hydrology, statistics, or environmental engineering is preferred. Programming experience working in a Unix environment with experience in scripting languages such as Python, R, or Matlab is highly desirable, along with experience using common machine learning software (Tensorflow, Keras, CNTK, PyTorch, Scikit-Learn, etc.) on cloud computing environments (AWS, Azure, etc.). Successful applicants should be comfortable working independently with large code libraries and databases, utilizing large meteorological data sets, and producing visualizations.

Per normal Postdoctoral appointment policies, all positions are envisioned as being initially for 1-year, with extension possible contingent upon performance and availability of funding. The University of California San Diego is an Affirmative Action / Equal Opportunity Employer (AA/EOE).

CW3E AR Update: 11 December 2020 Outlook

CW3E AR Update: 11 December 2020 Outlook

December 11, 2020

Click here for a pdf of this information.

Landfalling ARs to bring much-needed precipitation to Northern California

  • Multiple ARs will impact the U.S. West Coast during the next few days
  • AR 2 conditions (based on the Ralph et al. 2019 AR Scale) are forecast over portions of coastal California in association with the first landfalling AR, but the northwesterly orientation of the IVT vectors will limit precipitation amounts
  • About 1–3 inches of total precipitation are forecast over the Sierra Nevada, Northern California Coast Ranges, Oregon Coast Ranges, and Oregon Cascades during the next 72 hours
  • More than a foot of total snowfall is possible in the higher terrain of the Sierra Nevada

Click images to see loops of GFS IVT & IWV forecasts

Valid 1200 UTC 11 December – 1200 UTC 14 December 2020


 

 

 

 

 

 

Summary provided by C. Castellano, J. Cordeira, J. Kalansky, and F. M. Ralph; 11 December 2020

*Outlook products are considered experimental

CW3E AR Update: 7 December 2020 Outlook

CW3E AR Update: 7 December 2020 Outlook

December 7, 2020

Click here for a pdf of this information.

Multiple AR landfalls possible along the U.S. West Coast during the next 7 days

  • An AR over the Northeast Pacific Ocean will bring a period of AR conditions to southern British Columbia and Washington today and tomorrow
  • AR 2/AR 3 conditions (based on the Ralph et al. 2019 AR Scale) are forecast over coastal Washington in association with this landfalling AR
  • More than 2 inches of precipitation are possible across the Olympic Peninsula and North Cascades
  • A second AR may impact the U.S. West Coast this weekend, but forecast uncertainty is still very large

Click images to see loops of GFS IVT & IWV forecasts

Valid 1200 UTC 7 December – 1200 UTC 14 December 2020


 

 

 

 

 

 

Summary provided by C. Castellano, C. Hecht, J. Kalansky, B. Kawzenuk, and F. M. Ralph; 7 December 2020

*Outlook products are considered experimental

CW3E Welcomes Matthew Simpson

CW3E Welcomes Matthew Simpson

December 5, 2020

Matthew Simpson joined CW3E as a Ph.D. atmospheric scientist in December 2020. He received his Ph.D. from NC State University where he studied the dynamics of pollution transport in the marine boundary layer and the effects of urban land use on sea breeze induced precipitation.

After college, Matthew worked at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) for 13 years utilizing numerical weather prediction and atmospheric transport models for national security applications. In addition, he participated in numerous research studies to improve wind and solar resource forecasting in California. A key area of research focus for Matthew at LLNL was applying ensemble-based techniques to improve weather prediction via uncertainty quantification.

Matthew’s interest in meteorology began as a child when Hurricane Hugo passed through Charlotte, NC. He learned that the weather can be both beautiful and dangerous. Over time, he developed the philosophy to enjoy the natural beauty of weather while using science and creativity to predict and mitigate the dangerous side. Matthew looks forward to supporting CW3E by using his atmospheric modeling experience to improve real-time atmospheric river forecasting, generate high-resolution data sets of historical weather conditions, and to support research projects focusing on improving hazardous weather prediction.

In his spare time, Matthew enjoys hiking and exploring the forests and deserts of the amazing American Southwest.

CW3E Event Summary: 01-04 December 2020

CW3E Event Summary: 01-04 December 2020

December 4, 2020

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Southeast Alaska Pounded by Atmospheric River while California’s Fire Season Persists into December

  • A persistent high pressure and ridge has set up in the eastern Pacific and has directed all AR activity poleward towards Alaska and British Columbia
  • AR landfall over the Alaska Panhandle has resulted in AR 4 conditions, heavy precipitation, flooding, and debris flows
  • Several locations in southeastern Alaska broke daily and 48-hour precipitation records
  • The heavy precipitation triggered a landslide in Haines, AK leaving dozens of homes uninhabitable and prompting search and rescue efforts
  • On the opposite end of the spectrum, the offshore flow around the southeastern portion of the high pressure created a strong Santa Ana wind event over Southern California where wind gusts >80 mph were recorded and several fires were sparked during the dry and gusty conditions

MIMIC-TPW2 Total Precipitable Water

Valid 0000 UTC 30 November – 1600 UTC 04 December

Images from CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin

Click images to see loops of GFS IVT/IWV analyses

Valid 0000 UTC 30 November – 1200 UTC 04 December 2020

Summary provided by C. Hecht, C. Castellano, B. Kawzenuk, J. Kalansky, J. Cordeira, and F. M. Ralph; 04 December 2020

Past Yuba Water Agency General Manager Curt Aikens Honored with Association of California Water Agencies’ Lifetime Achievement Award

Past Yuba Water Agency General Manager Curt Aikens Honored with Association of California Water Agencies’ Lifetime Achievement Award

December 3, 2020

During the Association of California Water Agencies (ACWA) Annual Meeting this year, CW3E partner Curt Aikens was honored with ACWA’s Lifetime Achievement Award, acknowledging his many accomplishments throughout his career. His acceptance speech can be viewed here.

Each year since 2002, ACWA’s Lifetime Achievement Award recognizes individuals who, throughout the course of their career, have made remarkable and lasting contributions to the California water community. The award is presented at the discretion of the ACWA Executive Director in consultation with the ACWA President and Vice President.

CW3E offers our deepfelt congratulations on this well-deserved honor recognizing Curt’s many impactful accomplishments, including the Yuba Accord, Forecast Coordinated Operations, and playing a lead role to bring a FIRO viability assessment to New Bullards Bar. We are grateful for the opportunity to work with this visionary and collaborative leader, and the truly amazing team that he has created and nurtured during his years at Yuba Water Agency.

CW3E Field Team Installs New Meteorological Stations Ahead of WY2021

CW3E Field Team Installs New Meteorological Stations Ahead of WY2021

November 25, 2020

The CW3E Field Team installed two new observation sites and added additional instrumentation and performed maintenance on existing stations in the Yuba watershed between August-November 2020. The two new sites installed are soil meteorology (SMOIL) stations: North Star Meadow (NSM) and Lower Bath House (LBH). The sites are located near Strawberry Valley, CA and at San Francisco State University’s Sierra Nevada Field Campus near Bassetts, CA, respectively. These are two regions of the watershed previously lacking soil moisture observational data and add to the four existing CW3E stations installed for the Yuba-Feather Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) project,which researches opportunities at Lake Oroville and New Bullards Bar reservoir to improve reservoir operations and reduce flood risks by improving weather and runoff forecasts.

When conditions permit at the end of the winter season, a disdrometer will be installed at LBH to better observe the precipitation phase and understand the rain-snow transition during impactful atmospheric rivers (ARs) in the Sierra Nevada. Real-time communications will also be added at both new sites and data will be disseminated on CW3E’s website as well as MesoWest, NOAA HMT, and CDEC. The field team was also able to install GPS and conduct maintenance work at other CW3E sites in the Yuba to support Yuba/Feather FIRO activities before the wet season began. For more information on FIRO, visit the FIRO web page.

CW3E would especially like to thank SFSU’s Sierra Field Campus for their help and collaboration on the installation of LBH. We look forward to our continued partnership!

Figure 1: CW3E newest SMOIL stations: North Star Meadow (NSM) (left) near Strawberry Valley, CA on a smoke-free day in October, and Lower Bath House (LBH) (right) after the first snow of the season on 18 November.

Figure 2: Installation and maintenance of new and existing stations in the Yuba Watershed by CW3E Field Researchers. Top, From Left: Ava Cooper installs GPS at DLA; Carly Ellis digs a soil pit at NSM; Kerstin Paulsson digs hole for precip pole at LBH. Bottom, from Left: Kerstin Paulsson digs a trench for electrical at LBH; Ava Cooper connects soil sensors to the datalogger at NSM; Ava Cooper tests sensor connection at DLA; Kerstin Paulsson and Carly Ellis install GPS at NBB.

CW3E Welcomes Luke Odell

CW3E Welcomes Luke Odell

November 23, 2020

Luke Odell joined CW3E as a postdoctoral researcher, specializing in mesoscale dynamics and modeling, in November 2020. Luke received his Ph.D. in atmospheric science from the University of Wisconsin-Madison under the supervision of Professor Gregory Tripoli, and BSc. and MSc. in meteorology and environmental science from the University of Leeds in the U.K., under the supervision of Professor Peter Knippertz.

His Ph.D. research focused primarily on supercell thunderstorm dynamics, particularly processes involved in torrnadogenesis, from a theoretical and numerical modeling perspective. For his doctoral dissertation, Luke applied fluid dynamics theory to develop new parameters for describing and evaluating flow instabilities and vorticity evolution associated with tornadogenesis. Utilizing these parameters in the context of real-world and idealized mesoscale numerical model simulations of supercells, he developed new conceptual understanding of the physical process of tornadogenesis. Luke was an invited panelist at the ‘17th cyclone workshop’ as a result of this work.

While his Ph.D. research focused on supercells, Luke has a comprehensive understanding of fluid dynamics, relating to turbulence and instability, and a broad range of atmospheric dynamics from the misoscale to the synoptic scale. His master’s research used the WRF model to investigate rapid cyclogenesis of the Braer storm over the North Atlantic in early 1993. This study culminated in the David Kay award for academic excellence of a master’s thesis and a first-author publication. Luke has recently applied his combined knowledge to a wide range of atmospheric scales, to study atmospheric instabilities and energy transfer associated with tropical cyclones, extra-tropical cyclogenesis and atmospheric river development.

Luke taught a number of undergraduate courses as a TA during his Ph.D., including ‘introduction to weather and climate’, ‘introduction to atmospheric physics’, and ‘mesoscale meteorology’. He also instructed graduate level thermodynamics and developed and ran a high-school ALP summer course in atmospheric science. Luke received several awards for his teaching, including the atmospheric and oceanic sciences ‘Wahl award’, the ‘university housing teaching award’ and was nominated for a school of Letters and Science teaching award.

At CW3E, Luke will focus on evaluating and improving mesoscale model performance of short- duration, high-intensity precipitation events in western North America alongside Drs. Nina Oakley and Forest Cannon. His work will involve theoretical advancements in our understanding of the atmospheric dynamics associated with atmospheric rivers, which will be applied to study model performance and sensitivities to these events, with the aim to improve forecasting accuracy of precipitation extremes in the western United States.

Besides science, Luke previously cofounded a financial start-up that led to $125,000 investment and a mobile payments application. Through this, he became heavily involved in the emerging cryptoasset space. Luke has an acute passion for storm chasing in the central Plains and has been featured on several storm chasing documentaries. He enjoys traveling, soccer and all forms of outdoor activity.