CW3E AR Update: 17 May Outlook

May 17, 2019

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The last in a series of late season atmospheric rivers is forecast to bring precipitation to most of California this weekend

  • The GEFS is currently predicting a high probability of weak AR conditions lasting ~12 hours for a majority of Coastal CA
  • As much as 3 inches of precipitation is forecast to fall over the high elevations of the Coastal Mountains and Trinity Alps
  • With as much as 6 inches of precipitation falling over the previous 72-hours, numerous locations across the state have double their normal precipitation for the month of May
  • This system is forecast to be associated with seasonably low freezing levels (~5,000 ft.), resulting in a high probability of at least 8 inches of snow across much of the Sierra Nevada Mountains

Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of 0-180 hour GFS forecasts

Valid 1200 UTC 17 May – 0000 UTC 25 May 2019





Summary provided by C. Hecht, B.Kawzenuk, J. Kalansky, F. M. Ralph; 2 PM PT 17 May 2019