cw3e-web - Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes

CW3E AR Update: 06 June 2017 Outlook

June 06, 2017

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Update on Late Season AR Forecast to Impact West Coast This Week

Little change from yesterday’s forecast
Ensemble GFS members are still in good agreement of the onset, duration, and maximum magnitude of coastal IVT
NOAA WPC precipitation forecasts are predicting as much as 4.2 inches over the Coastal Mountains of Northern CA and OR
A few rivers in the Cascade Range of WA and OR are forecast to rise to action or flood stage due to melting snow and the landfalling AR

Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of 0-114 hour GFS forecast Valid 1200 UTC 06 June – 0600 UTC 11 June 2017

Summary provided by C. Hecht and F.M. Ralph; 12 PM PT Tuesday 06 June 2017

CW3E AR Update: 05 June 2017 Outlook

June 05, 2017

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Late Season AR Forecast to Impact West Coast

An unseasonably strong AR is forecast to impact the Pacific Northwest and Northern CA over the next couple of days
As much as 4.1 inches of precipitation is forecast to fall over the higher elevations of the Coastal Mountains in CA and OR over the next week
With higher freezing levels forecast during landfall, there is a potential for rain on snow and increased runoff
Due to the combination of snowmelt and the landfalling AR, several rivers in the Pacific Northwest are forecast to rise above flood stage

Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of 0-114 hour GFS forecast Valid 1200 UTC 05 June – 0600 UTC 10 June 2017

Summary provided by C. Hecht and F.M. Ralph; 1 PM PT Monday 05 June 2017

CW3E Update: Flood Risk From Snow Melt

May 23, 2017

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Anomalously Warm Temperatures Expected to Contribute to Melting Snowpack and Elevated Runoff

High temperatures of 60–80˚F (16–26˚F) are forecast for the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada Mountains over the next several days
The higher than normal water year to date precipitation over much of the West Coast has created snow packs that are much greater than normal over most of the Sierra Nevada Mountains
The combination of anomalously high temperatures and snow pack is forecast to lead to increased runoff and potential flooding
The National Weather Service has issued flood watches and warnings for several locations in California

Loop of GFS Forecast Surface Temperatures

Valid 1200 UTC 23 May – 1200 UTC 30 May 2017

Summary provided by C. Hecht B. Kawzenuk and F.M. Ralph; 12 PM PT Tuesday 23 May 2017

Atmospheric Rivers: Recent Developments and Applications in California

May 19, 2017

In Sacramento on Tuesday, May 23^rd, CW3E director, F. Martin Ralph will be presenting a seminar about atmospheric rivers and their impacts to California legislative and agency staff. The seminar, Atmospheric Rivers: Recent Developments and Applications in California, will provide updates on the impacts of ARs on the current water year and the ongoing research to better understand and better forecast ARs. Dr. Ralph is looking forward to sharing all of the exciting research being done at CW3E with the group.

CW3E Outreach at Local Elementary School

May 15, 2017

CW3E’s Brian Kawzenuk, Chad Hecht, and Anna Wilson recently visited La Costa Meadows Elementary School to discuss some of the unique observations and tools that meteorologists use to study the atmosphere. Over 1000 students from kindergarten to fifth grade joined to observe and discuss meteorological ground instrumentation and a weather balloon launch. Discussion focused on how the instrumentation works, what they measure, how the observations can be useful to understanding the atmosphere, and how this knowledge and research can be used to improve forecasting and water resource management. During the demonstration students were actively engaged, asked numerous questions, and two assisted in releasing the weather balloon.

After the balloon launch, fourth and fifth grade students were invited to a more in depth discussion and presentation on meteorology, which focused on several aspects that are related to their science curriculum. Topics covered included data gathered from radiosonde launches, radar and satellite observations, storm systems and fronts, and forecasting and atmospheric models. This discussion gave students the opportunity to discuss and ask more questions about the atmosphere and how it is studied. Overall, the event proved to be a valuable experience for both students and staff.

Left: Anna Wilson and Chad Hecht prepare a radiosonde and weather balloon at La Costa Meadows Elementary School. Right: Brian Kawzenuk describes the process of performing a weather balloon launch while Chad and Anna prepare to hand off the balloon and radiosonde to two students.

Graduate Student Tashiana Osborne Represents UCSD at the California State Capitol

May 3, 2017

CW3E graduate student, Tashiana Osborne, and Communication graduate student, Jahmese Fort, were selected to represent the University of California San Diego (UCSD) at the California State Capitol for the eighth annual UC Graduate Research Advocacy Day on April 19, 2017.

During their day at the state capitol, Osborne and Fort met face-to-face with several state senators, assembly members, and their staff. UC President Janet Napolitano addressed student representatives gathered from all 10 UC campuses during the event. Students engaged with legislators representing both major parties about ways their research projects contribute to making a difference for the lives of Californians and beyond.

Osborne highlighted implications of her research with CW3E, which focuses on investigating and enhancing forecasts of the atmospheric freezing level, the elevation where the air temperature is zero degrees Celsius. Frozen precipitation typically melts to become rain about 200-300 meters below this elevation. Freezing level, therefore, is key in determining the type and amount of precipitation, and ultimately, the amount of runoff generated during and after precipitation events. Freezing level is especially critical in California’s mountainous regions, where precipitation has a unique interaction with the complex and varied topography.

Her work supports the University’s goal to demonstrate the value and impact of UC research and graduate education for California. This research emphasizes the lead role California can have in western weather prediction and monitoring, water resources management, flood safety, and drought preparedness.

Fort and Osborne were also named as the inaugural recipients of the Jane and Jiao Fan, PhD ’94 Prize for Best Advocate for Graduate Studies through the Graduate Division. This prize honors graduate student representatives who are successful in marketing and communicating their own research efforts.

UC President, Janet Napolitano, and graduate student, Tashiana Osborne, at the California State Capitol. Photo credit: Denise Serrano; UCSD Director of Public Affairs.

CW3E Welcomes Dr. Zhenhai Zhang

CW3E welcomes Dr. Zhenhai Zhang

April 21, 2017

Dr. Zhenhai Zhang joined CW3E as a Postdoctoral Scholar in January 2017. Zhenhai earned his Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science at the State University of New York at Stony Brook under the direction of Dr. Brian Colle. His dissertation focused on the future changes of U.S. East coast extratropical cyclones using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and the downscaled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) runs. His work quantified the increase in the number of rapidly deepening storms along the East Coast, as well as increases in the associated precipitation extremes. In addition, he also used the WRF to dynamically downscale the results from global CMIP5 models for both the current and future climate. In his new position at CW3E, Zhenhai will develop a new tool to identify and composite different kinds of extratropical cyclones over the west coast of North America, and examine the interactions between the cyclones and atmospheric rivers, as well as their impacts on precipitation. He will also evaluate the seasonal predictability of temperature over the U.S. West Coast in the hindcast experiments of two multimodel ensemble projects (NMME and S2S), and build a surface temperature forecast at subseasonal to seasonal time scale using the ensemble real-time forecast from these models based on their forecast skill. Dr. Zhang’s research involves a collaboration with the California-Nevada Applications Program (CNAP).

May 31 – June 2 Big Data and The Earth Sciences: Grand Challenges Workshop

April 17, 2017

Abstract deadline extended to April 21^st

The Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) of UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the Pacific Research Platform (PRP) is excited to announce the organization of a workshop focused on earth sciences and information technology at the University of California San Diego. The workshop is a three-day Grand Challenges workshop May 31 to June 2 in La Jolla, Calif., on the topic of “Big Data and the Earth Sciences”.

CW3E is focused on advancing science and technology to support the unique information needs related to western U.S. extreme weather and water events, such as California’s recent flooding and multi-year drought and associated potential for subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting. PRP is a consortium of universities in the western U.S. that is building a “science-driven, high-capacity data-centric freeway system on a large regional scale.” Funded by the National Science Foundation, PRP is based in the California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology (Calit2), a partnership of UC San Diego and UC Irvine. The workshop will take place in UC San Diego’s Atkinson Hall, headquarters of the Qualcomm Institute (the UCSD division of Calit2).

The goal of the The Big Data and Earth Sciences: Grand Challenges Workshop is to bring thought leaders in Big Data and Earth Sciences together for a three day, intensive workshop to discuss what is needed to advance our understanding and predictability of the Earth systems and to highlight key technological advances and methods that are readily available or in the final stages of development.

Sessions will include:

Big data collaborations;
Big data research platforms, networks, technologies and visualization;
Big data and predictability challenges in earth science data;
Pattern detection, segmentation and object recognition for earth sciences;
Structuring unstructured data in the earth sciences; as well as
Data mining and discovery, machine learning and predictive modeling.

For more information please visit:

Announcement: http://qi.ucsd.edu/news-article.php?id=2829

Official workshop website: http://prp.ucsd.edu/events/big-data-and-the-earth-science-grand-challenges-workshop

Please send abstracts to scottsellars@ucsd.edu

Abstracts are restricted to one page. Please include the abstract title, authors’ names and affiliations. A word document or .pdf is preferred.

CW3E Launches Radiosonde with Potter Valley Elementary School Students

April 16, 2017

CW3E’s Reuben Demirdjian and Anna Wilson recently conducted a demonstration radiosonde launch at the Potter Valley Fire Department for the Potter Valley Elementary School in the Russian River Watershed. The 5th and 6th grade classes, taught by Lori Clark and Merri Emerson respectively, were very enthusiastic participants in the demonstration launch. During the event the students showed their interest while asking a seemingly endless supply of questions about how the information is collected and why it it is useful. The students wrote a message on the to be launched radiosonde’s plastic exterior (Go Bearcats!), and released the balloon. Topics covered included the research done with the collected data, how the information gained from our experiments might help their strong agricultural community, why the balloon expands as it rises, what the sensors attached to the balloon measure, and how far the balloon might go (atmospheric layers were discussed!). Reuben and Anna, along with CW3E’s Douglas Alden, were also able to interact with the same classes at the start of the 2017 field season in January, when they deployed ground instrumentation including a vertically pointing radar, optical disdrometers, rain gauges, and more instrumentation at the Potter Valley Fire Department. The instrumentation at the Potter Valley Fire Department site has collected a valuable dataset over this historic winter season and CW3E is grateful for the support and collaboration and looks forward to a strong relationship going forward.

CW3E graduate student Reuben Demirdjian gets ready to hand off the radiosonde and balloon to two capable Potter Valley Elementary School students to sample a vertical profile of the atmosphere; Potter Valley Elementary School students watch the balloon ascend.

Key California precipitation index hits record yearly level after only 7 months

Key California Precipitation Index Hits Record Yearly Level After Only 7 Months

April 13, 2017

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A key index of California precipitation observations at eight stations in the Northern Sierra Nevada has set a new record high level after less than 7 months, beating the previous record that took 12 months of accumulation to set. A series of atmospheric rivers (ARs) that brought heavy precipitation to the state, especially in Jan and Feb, largely accounts for the record total accumulation.

Summary provided by F.M. Ralph, D. Pierce, C. Hecht, M. Dettinger, and D. Cayan; 2 PM PT Thursday 13 April 2017