Author: cw3e-web

CW3E and Groundwork San Diego Host Webster Elementary School Students at Scripps Pier to Learn About ARs and extreme weather

CW3E and Groundwork San Diego Host Webster Elementary School Students at Scripps Pier to Learn About ARs and Extreme Weather

April 26, 2022

CW3E PhD candidate Cody Poulsen, and Scripps-GEO scholar Anh Pham Phu, and staff member Benji Downing partnered with Allie Sifrit and Rose Do from Groundwork San Diego- Chollas Creek’s Kids to the Coast program, sponsored by the California Coastal Conservancy, to host an extreme weather educational event for 5th graders from Webster Elementary School. A group of 36 students participated in this event which was hosted at Scripps Institution of Oceanography. The day consisted of two interactive learning opportunities, one was a Groundwork led beachcombing of the shore near Scripps Pier where the students learned about the impacts of extreme weather on changes to the shoreline and marine life. The students then participated in a CW3E led radiosonde launch from the pier to learn about the Center’s role in extreme weather research and some of the key methods of data collection.

Prior to the launch, Downing and Poulsen led a discussion where the students learned about how we observe and model atmospheric rivers and associated extreme precipitation events. They learned about why our research is important for flood risk management and water conservation, and how our research helps society and ecosystems be resilient to extreme weather.

The launch was assisted by Webster Elementary 5th grader VJ. The students counted down from 10 and they released the balloon. The students were excited by the rapid rate of ascent, and amazed to learn that pressure decreases with altitude causing weather balloons to expand up to 4 times the diameter or more before popping.

After the launch Poulsen gave the students a tour of the pier and showed them equipment used by SIO and CW3E for atmospheric and oceanographic research. The day finished with a craft activity led by Sifrit and Do. The students used this opportunity to create an informational pamphlet about extreme weather events that occur in San Diego, such as flooding from atmospheric rivers, severe thunderstorms, extreme droughts, heat waves and severe wind events.

Webster Elementary students gather on Scripps pier to learn about radiosonde launches and the work CW3E does to conduct research on atmospheric rivers and extreme weather events.

Under the guidance of Downing, Webster Elementary student VJ holds a weather balloon before launch.

CW3E Welcomes Samuel Bartlett

CW3E Welcomes Samuel Bartlett

April 19, 2022

Samuel Bartlett joined CW3E as a meteorologist on March 14th, 2022. He completed his B.S. in Geoscience with a focus in meteorology at Hobart and William Smith Colleges in Geneva, NY (2018) and his M.S. in Applied Meteorology at Plymouth State University in Plymouth, NH (2020).

As a graduate student at Plymouth State, Sam worked under the advisement of CW3E collaborator Dr. Jason Cordeira to study the benefit-hazard spectrum associated with landfalling ARs of varying intensity on the AR scale. This research analyzed the geospatial distribution of NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in the western U.S. on days with landfalling ARs of varying intensity, duration, and location. The results of this study contribute to the body of research which quantifies the relationship between the AR scale and the potential hazards associated with ARs, through the context of NWS watches, warnings, and advisories. Sam completed this research for his M.S. thesis and the resulting manuscript was subsequently published in the AMS Journal of Weather and Forecasting (Bartlett and Cordeira 2021).

In addition to his AR-related research, Sam has worked on projects focusing on severe weather, extreme wind-chill temperatures, and surface boundaries where he developed skills in geospatial analysis (GIS), statistical analysis, programming, and large dataset management. Sam also served as a forecast intern for the NWS Center Weather Service Unit located in the FAA Boston Air Route Traffic Control Center, where he provided forecasts and stand-up weather briefings to air traffic controllers. He most recently worked as the REU Assistant for the Northeast Partnership for Atmospheric and Related Sciences (NEPARS) REU where he peer mentored four pairs of research students while simultaneously developing a surface front climatology.

At CW3E, Sam will be contributing to the AR Recon forecasting team, supporting meteorological research related to the FIRO program, and other research projects at CW3E. Sam is excited to use his skills and experience with various data analysis tools to assist with the research of CW3E and other partner agencies.

CW3E AR Update: 18 April 2022 Outlook

CW3E AR Update: 18 April 2022 Outlook

April 18, 2022

Click here for a pdf of this information.

Active pattern is forecast to continue throughout today and into mid-week, increasing the potential for precipitation across the U.S. West Coast

  • Over the past week, a series of ARs and low-pressure systems impacted Northern and Central California bringing 3 – 6 inches of liquid precipitation and 1–3 feet of snow
  • The active pattern is forecast to continue over the next several days, resulting in additional precipitation and mountain snow
  • An AR is currently impacting the Pacific Northwest and is forecast to move down the coast, impacting Northern California later today
  • Another AR is forecast to move-in behind the current AR between the 20th and 21st, bringing an additional period of precipitation to the region
  • Due to the relatively weak and short duration of these ARs in the forecast, it is unlikely that they will bring conditions that fall on the AR scale and the probability of AR 1+ conditions is low across a majority of California
  • The NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is forecasting at least 2–5 inches of precipitation over the Northern Sierra Nevada, Northern California Coast Ranges, and southern Oregon Coast Ranges during the next 5 days
  • The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory of portions of the Northern Sierra Nevada


 

 

Click images to see loops of GFS IVT & IWV forecasts

Valid 1200 UTC 18 April – 1200 UTC 19 March 2022

 

 

 

 

 

 

Summary provided by C. Castellano, C. Hecht, S. Roj, S. Bartlett, J. Kalansky, and F. M. Ralph; 18 April 2022

To sign up for email alerts when CW3E post new AR updates click here.

*Outlook products are considered experimental

CW3E AR Update: 14 April 2022 Outlook

CW3E AR Update: 14 April 2022 Outlook

April 14, 2022

Click here for a pdf of this information.

Atmospheric Rivers to Bring Beneficial Precipitation to Northern portions of the US West Coast

  • Ongoing atmospheric river (AR) is expected to continue to bring precipitation to Northern CA through this evening with additional AR activity forecasted over Oregon and Northern CA over the next 5 days
  • A quick-moving shortwave trough is forecast to bring additional precipitation to Northern CA on 16 Apr
  • A second AR is forecasted to make landfall on 18 Apr and bring AR 1-2 conditions (based on the Ralph et al. 2019 AR Scale) to coastal Northern California and Oregon, but there is uncertainty in the timing, location, and duration of AR conditions
  • Compared to the 00Z ECMWF, the 00Z GFS is forecasting higher precipitation totals over the Northern California Coast Ranges and over western Washington and Oregon
  • The sequence of weak ARs will bring beneficial late season precipitation to regions currently experiencing severe and prolonged drought, although it likely will not end the severe drought conditions across the region

Click images to see loops of GFS IVT & IWV forecasts

Valid 0000 UTC 14 April – 0000 UTC 19 March 2022


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Summary provided by S. Roj, S. Bartlett, C. Castellano, C. Hecht, J. Kalansky, and F. M. Ralph; 14 April 2022

To sign up for email alerts when CW3E post new AR updates click here.

*Outlook products are considered experimental

Distribution of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers over the U.S. West Coast During Water Year 2022: Summary Through March

Distribution of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers over the U.S. West Coast During Water Year 2022: Summary Through March

April 7, 2021

For a pdf of this information click here.
 

 

 

 

 

Link to a post-event summary of the 19 to 26 October 2021 AR here
 

Analysis by Chad Hecht, Julie Kalansky, & F. Martin Ralph. This analysis is considered experimental. For questions regarding the data or methodology please contact Chad Hecht

CW3E and Yuba Water Agency Visit YES Charter Academy for Lesson on ARs

CW3E and Yuba Water Agency Visit YES Charter Academy for Lesson on ARs

April 6, 2022

Jasperse and Hecht work with students to launch a weather balloon. Photo taken by Boesch (Yuba Water Agency).

CW3E staff, Dr. Anna Wilson (Field Research Manager), Chad Hecht (Meteorology Staff Researcher), and Lindsey Jasperse (Field Researcher) joined with Yuba Water Agency partners DeDe Cordell (Communications Manager), Bonnie Dickson (Senior Public Information Officer), and Alex Boesch (Public Information Specialist) at the Yuba Environmental Science (YES) Charter Academy for a lesson and demonstration focused on ARs. The visit provided students with a unique hands-on opportunity to explore the science behind ARs, the instruments and methods CW3E uses to study them, and their importance in the Yuba River Watershed and across the western U.S.

The visit included both a classroom lesson and balloon launch demonstration. Throughout the classroom lesson with Mr. Cabrera’s 6th grade students, Cordell, Hecht, and Wilson covered topics ranging from AR science, innovative water resource management efforts such as FIRO, to how they became interested in pursuing their careers in science. After the classroom lesson, grades 5th through 8th joined in to help with a demonstration weather balloon launch. Students were able to participate in the live balloon release in addition to experiencing real-time data collection as the balloon expanded into the atmosphere. After the weather balloon popped at 25.265km, traveling 61.4km horizontally eastward, CW3E provided YES Charter Academy with the data for students to explore further in their classroom lessons. The visit was also featured in the local Appeal-Democrat’s story “A real-world science lesson – YES Charter Academy students learn from weather experts” and live-streamed for online viewers.

CW3E is grateful to partner with Yuba Water Agency and YES Charter Academy to provide students with valuable, hands-on experiences, and looks forward to continuing these efforts with future outreach events. Visit Yuba Water Agency’s Educational Videos Water Education section to learn more about the event and access the recorded live-stream video.

Jasperse and Hecht work with students to launch a weather balloon. Photo taken by Boesch (Yuba Water Agency).

Wilson talks with students about CW3E’s instruments. Photo taken by Boesch (Yuba Water Agency).

CW3E Publication Notice: Increases in Future AR Count and Size: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 Experiment

CW3E Publication Notice

Future changes of PNA-like MJO teleconnections in CMIP6 models: underlying mechanisms and uncertainty

April 5, 2022

Lead author T.A O’Brien (Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Indiana University; Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory) and co-authors, including from CW3E, recently published an article titled “Increases in Future AR Count and Size: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 Experiment.” The article, published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres/Volume 127, Issue 6, contributes to the goals of CW3E’s 2019-2024 Strategic Plan to support Atmospheric River (AR) Research and Applications and Emerging Technologies by exploring how different AR identification methods and climate models may impact the scientific understanding of future ARs in a warmer climate.

This study utilizes the AR Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP), a community effort to systematically assess how the uncertainties from AR detectors (ARDTs) impact our scientific understanding of ARs. O’Brien et al. utilize ARTMIP Tier 2 experiments and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phases 5 and 6 multi-model ensembles to examine projections in future ARs and how these historical simulations compare to the Tier 1 MERRA-2 experiments.

Results from this study show that most ARDTs and simulations project a relatively large increase in AR frequency, size, and number in future simulations. However, O’Brien et al.’s results further show that ARDT design choice is a major contributor to the uncertainty in future changes in AR frequency, indicating these choices can have an impact on the results of climate change studies. Results from this study highlight the importance of understanding the implications of uncertainty for AR-related research and provide critical considerations for future work.

Figure 1: Maps of atmospheric river (AR) frequency (shown as average number of days with AR conditions) annually for the 1981–2010 period. Each column corresponds to a global AR detection algorithm, and the last column represents the average across all AR detection algorithms. The top row corresponds to AR detections on the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 data set (the Tier 1 Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project experiment) and the second and third rows correspond to AR detections on the CMIP6 MRI-ESM2-0 simulation. White indicates areas where average AR occurrence is fewer than 1 day. (third and fourth rows) Maps of trends in annual AR frequency in the MRI-ESM2-0 simulation (third row) and all models (fourth row), organized by detection algorithm (columns) from 1951 to 2099 (with a few exceptions noted in the text). Trends significant at the 90% level (according to a 2-sided t-test) are indicated by stippling, and trends significant at the 95% level are indicated by cross-hatching.

O’Brien, T. A., Wehner, M. F., Payne, A. E., Shields, C. A., Rutz, J. J., Leung, L.-R., et al. (2022). Increases in future AR count and size: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 experiment. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127, e2021JD036013.https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD036013.

CW3E AR Update: 24 March 2022 Outlook

CW3E AR Update: 24 March 2022 Outlook

March 24, 2022

Click here for a pdf of this information.

Weak Atmospheric River and Low-Pressure System to Bring Precipitation to Southern and Central CA

  • A weak atmospheric river (AR) is forecasted to make landfall over the Pacific Northwest tomorrow night
  • A secondary cyclone is forecasted to develop west of the AR and slowly approach the California coast, bringing a brief period of AR conditions to much of the state
  • Model-to-model differences in the forecast evolution of the surface cyclone and AR are leading to large differences in the forecast timing and location of the heaviest precipitation in California
  • The NWS Weather Prediction Center is forecasting 1–3 inches of precipitation over portions of coastal Southern California and the Sierra Nevada, with the highest amounts in the Transverse Ranges
  • The 00Z GEFS is forecasting the second AR to make landfall later and bring stronger AR conditions to northern Oregon and southern Washington
  • Compared to the GFS, the ECMWF is forecasting higher (lower) precipitation amounts over the Transverse Ranges (Sierra Nevada)

Click images to see loops of GFS IVT & IWV forecasts

Valid 0000 UTC 24 March – 0000 UTC 29 March 2022


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Summary provided by C. Castellano, S. Bartlett, J. Kalansky, B. Kawzenuk, S. Roj, and F. M. Ralph; 24 March 2022

To sign up for email alerts when CW3E post new AR updates click here.

*Outlook products are considered experimental

Lake Mendocino Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations Awarded ASCE Region 9 Water Project

Lake Mendocino Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations Awarded ASCE Region 9 Water Project

March 24, 2022

Lake Mendocino FIRO Steering Committee at Lake Mendocino in 2018.

Each year, the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Region 9 presents project awards recognizing outstanding Civil Engineering projects in California. Awards are selected from nominations made throughout the state and evaluated by the ASCE review committee. ASCE recently presented the 2021 ASCE Region 9 Water Project award to Jay Jasperse, Chief Engineer of Sonoma Water, recognizing the Lake Mendocino Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) Final Viability Assessment (FVA) as an outstanding water project.

The Lake Mendocino FIRO FVA, developed collaboratively by a multi-agency Steering Committee co-led by Sonoma Water and CW3E, is a new tool that aims to support informed water supply and flood management decisions. By integrating additional flexibility in operation policies and rules with enhanced monitoring and improved weather and streamflow forecasts, the project helps to better inform decisions to retain or release water. FIRO is also being developed and tested as a collaborative effort in regions other than the Russian River Basin, such as in the Santa Ana River Basin (Prado Dam), and the Yuba-Feather River Basins, with interest and support for developing FIRO at other appropriate locations in the Western U.S. and elsewhere. The project engages experts and stakeholders in civil engineering, hydrology, meteorology, biology, economics and climate from several federal, state and local, universities and others.

Jay has accepted the award on behalf of the FIRO Steering Committee, commenting “ASCE’s recognition for the Lake Mendocino FIRO project reflects the excellent collaboration and innovation by its Steering Committee, co-chaired by Marty Ralph at CW3E. FIRO brings research and operations together for science-based practical solutions to improve water supply and flood risk management. This is especially important as we adapt to the extremes associated with climate change.”

CW3E is grateful for the opportunity to partner with Sonoma Water on this project, and looks forward to continuing to advance and expand the important efforts of FIRO into the future. To learn more about the Lake Mendocino FIRO FVA project, visit the CW3E Lake Mendocino FIRO webpage.