cw3e-web - Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes

CW3E Graduate Student Returns as an Alumnus for the Rocky Mountain Science and Sustainability Network Summer Academy

May 31, 2019

CW3E graduate student, Tashiana Osborne, visited Colorado to meet undergraduate students participating in the 2019 Rocky Mountain Science and Sustainability Network (RMSSN) Summer Academy. Osborne, an RMSSN alumnus (2014), returned with a goal to help encourage younger students, and to give back to the leaders and program that helped empower her.

RMSSN aims to develop a diverse population of students ready to serve as stewards of natural places and to collaborate on issues relating to sustainability, biodiversity, and community engagement in the protection of natural resources. The Academy is in its tenth year, with support provided by the National Science Foundation, Beacham O’Malley Trust, and the National Park Service.

“With a mutual commitment to preserve and protect the resources, livelihoods, and cultures of the intermountain west and beyond, RMSSN will work to address regional sustainability issues by developing leaders who possess multidisciplinary skills, demonstrate scientific literacy, and embrace key principles of sustainability.” — RMSSN.

During the Academy, students visited Yellowstone, Grand Teton, and Rocky Mountain National Parks. Activities included an alumni panel, guided educational tours (focus: local sustainability efforts, flora and fauna, cultural histories), nature reflections, team-building ropes course challenges, and more. Students also learned through sessions with research scientists and university professors, park rangers and management, a U.S. Senate candidate, and others.

This year, 17 undergraduate students completed the program. Participants traveled from various regions across the U.S., and some from the Bahamas, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and France. For some of the students, it was their first time experiencing a national park.

Early on, the undergraduate students formed teams focused on distinct elements of the RMSSN mission. Teams sought advice from alumni and other program mentors. At the end of the Academy, each group presented on their efforts. One team, for example, assessed the inclusivity, accessibility, cultural representativeness and awareness of each park they visited. Another team used electronic devices to record bat noises, and shared their observations on bat behaviors.

RMSSN group photo (PC: Dr. Stefan Moss)

Spending time outside before the stormy weather (PC: Miguel Trejo Rangel)

CW3E Graduate Student presents at Workshop on Correlated Extremes

May 31, 2019

CW3E graduate student Meredith Fish was selected to attend and present at the Workshop on Correlated Extremes at Columbia University at the end of May. The concept of correlated extremes has emerged over the last few years along with recognition of social impacts associated with climate extremes that occur close together in space and time. The goal of this workshop was to bring together researchers who have contributed directly to the body of research on the topic of correlated climate extremes and their impacts.

Meredith presented on her dissertation topic of successive atmospheric rivers (ARs), or AR families. In her work, Meredith has defined AR families to be ARs that occur within five days of one another at the same location, and characterized synoptic patterns associated with AR families. Other topics at the workshop included extreme heat, air pollution, compound flooding events, amongst many others.

The attendees of the Workshop on Correlated Extremes (Photo provided by workshop organizers).

Sharing Science on World Oceans Day

May 28, 2019

CW3E graduate student Tashiana Osborne joined forces with Dr. Dawn Wright (Chief Scientist at Environmental Systems Research Institute) and the AGU Sharing Science team for a webinar in early celebration of World Oceans Day (June 8th).

During the webinar, Wright and Osborne provide details on how they share science, highlighting their experiences in science communication, policy, and outreach. They include tips for getting started and lessons they’ve learned from sharing with various groups; young learners, policymakers, and social media communities. Osborne and Wright offer ideas for researchers interested in reaching broader audiences on World Oceans Day and beyond.

The AGU Sharing Science webinar recording is available here.

In 2008, the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution officially recognizing June 8th as World Oceans Day. Goals surrounding this day include emphasizing the importance of oceans in our daily lives, bringing oceans to policy conversations (from local to global scale), and strengthening coastal and ocean community voices in policy settings. Related efforts led to the UN designating 2021-2030 as the Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development focused on adaptation strategies and science-informed policy actions to protect and prepare (SIO Director, Dr. Margaret Leinen, serves within the Executive Planning Group).

CW3E Graduate Student Selected for National Center for Atmospheric Research Graduate Visitor Program, March-May 2019

May 20, 2019

Maryam at Brainard Lake, Colorado

CW3E graduate student, Maryam Asgari Lamjiri, was awarded the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)’s Advanced Study Program’s Graduate Student Fellowship. As part of this fellowship she spent three months at NCAR working with Dr. Stefano Alessandrini on applying the Analog Ensemble (AE) approach to the station-based precipitation dataset in California in conjunction with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis 5 (ERA 5) to 1) fill in the missing values in the observational dataset, 2) investigate the possibility of extending this dataset back in time to the period where only the reanalysis products are available, 3) add a reliable uncertainty quantification of these estimates as provided by AnEn, and 4) test the new techniques developed for bias correction of the AnEn technique in forecast of rare events using these estimates. Pending additional analysis, results from this study will be submitted for potential peer-reviewed journal publication and will be part of Maryam’s Ph.D. dissertation.

CW3E AR Update: 17 May Outlook

May 17, 2019

Click here for a pdf of this information.

The last in a series of late season atmospheric rivers is forecast to bring precipitation to most of California this weekend

The GEFS is currently predicting a high probability of weak AR conditions lasting ~12 hours for a majority of Coastal CA
As much as 3 inches of precipitation is forecast to fall over the high elevations of the Coastal Mountains and Trinity Alps
With as much as 6 inches of precipitation falling over the previous 72-hours, numerous locations across the state have double their normal precipitation for the month of May
This system is forecast to be associated with seasonably low freezing levels (~5,000 ft.), resulting in a high probability of at least 8 inches of snow across much of the Sierra Nevada Mountains

Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of 0-180 hour GFS forecasts Valid 1200 UTC 17 May – 0000 UTC 25 May 2019

Summary provided by C. Hecht, B.Kawzenuk, J. Kalansky, F. M. Ralph; 2 PM PT 17 May 2019

CW3E Publication Notice: A Deficit of Seasonal Temperature Forecast Skill over West Coast Regions in NMME

CW3E Publication Notice

A Deficit of Seasonal Temperature Forecast Skill over West Coast Regions in NMME

May 14, 2019

CW3E postdoc Zhenhai Zhang and coauthors David Pierce, Daniel Cayan have recently published a paper in Weather and Forecasting entitled “A Deficit of Seasonal Temperature Forecast Skill over West Coast Regions in NMME”.

This study investigates the forecast skill of seasonal-mean near-surface (2m) air temperature in the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) Phase 2 hindcasts. The forecast skill of temperature in NMME models is evaluated for four seasons (MAM, JJA, SON, and DJF) globally, and compared to the persistence forecast skill. Results indicate that the forecast skill of seasonal-mean temperature over some west coast regions is markedly lower than the skill over either the nearby ocean or the inland continent, especially during the warm season. To explore the physical processes responsible for that low skill, the authors focus on the California coastal region. The poor forecast skill along the California coastal region reflects deficiencies in their representation of multiple relevant physical processes. Analyses find that summer forecast errors are spatially coherent over the coastal region and the inland region individually, but the correlation of forecast errors between the two regions is low (Figure 1). Variation in forecast performance over the coastal California region is associated with anomalous geopotential height over lower middle latitudes and subtropics of the eastern Pacific, North America, and western Atlantic. In contrast, variation in forecast performance over the inland California region is associated with atmospheric circulation over the western United States. Further, it is found that forecast errors along the California coast are linked to anomalies of low cloudiness (stratus clouds) along the coastal region. NMME forecasts tend to be warmer than observed when coastal low cloudiness is anomalously high over the California coast (Figure 2). Locally, the error associated with coastal cloudiness is as important in affecting warm season forecast skill as other more widely-recognized factors, such as the sea surface temperature, ENSO, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation.

Figure 1: Correlation (contours) of NMME forecast error time series at a specific location and that at all grid points on the map at lead time 1 month for summer seasons (MJJ, JJA and JAS). Locations (blue dots) are (a) San Francisco, (b) Tahoe City, (c) San Diego, and (d) Parker Dam. Colors indicate locations whose correlation is significant at 95% confidence level or higher.

Figure 2: Composite coastal low cloudiness anomaly of the ten summer seasons having (a) the smallest forecast error and (b) the largest positive forecast error at lead time 1 month, at San Francisco. Units are standard deviations indicated by colors, and contours in %.

Zhang, Z., Pierce, D. W., & Cayan, D. R., 2019: A Deficit of Seasonal Temperature Forecast Skill over West Coast Regions in NMME. Weather and Forecasting. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-18-0172.1 .

CW3E AR Update: 13 May Outlook

May 13, 2019

Click here for a pdf of this information.

Late Season Atmospheric Rivers Forecast to Impact Washington, Oregon, and Northern California This Week

Multiple ARs are forecast to make landfall over the U.S. West Coast between 14 and 17 May 2019
The development of a secondary low as the initial landfalling AR leads to the landfall of a secondary AR over Northern CA
Forecast certainty in AR magnitude and duration is currently lower for the second AR
As much as 5–6 inches of precipitation could fall over Northern CA and Southern Oregon during the next 10 days
The GEFS is currently suggesting the potential for additional AR activity between 19 and 22 May, but uncertainty is currently high

Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of 0-180 hour GFS forecasts Valid 1200 UTC 13 May – 0000 UTC 21 May 2019

Summary provided by C. Hecht, B.Kawzenuk, J. Kalansky, F. M. Ralph; 3 PM PT 13 May 2019

Water Year 2019: April Atmospheric Rivers

May 8, 2019

For a pdf of this information click here.

*Arrows on this map are placed where each atmospheric river was strongest over the coastline.

Analysis by C. Hecht, B. Kawzenuk, & F. Martin Ralph. This analysis is considered experimental. For questions regarding the data or methodology please contact Chad Hecht

FIRO Panel Held at 2019 Annual California Water and Environmental Modeling Forum

May 1, 2019

CW3E’s F. Martin Ralph (Director), Forest Cannon (Project Scientist), and Anna Wilson (Field Research Manager) recently attended the California Water and Environmental Modeling Forum (CWEMF) 2019 Annual Meeting held in Folsom, California on April 22-24, 2019. CWEMF’s mission is to increase the usefulness of models for analyzing California’s water-related problems, and it carries out this mission through facilitating an open exchange of information on California water issues and ensuring that technical work continues to take into account the needs of stakeholders and decision makers.

The CW3E scientists, along with colleagues at Sonoma Water (Chris Delaney, Senior Engineer), HDR-David Ford Consulting Engineers (Mike Konieczki, Water Resources Engineer) and US Army Engineer Research and Development Center (Steve Turnbull, Research Hydraulic Engineer), presented a panel describing the Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) project. Chris Delaney served as panel moderator. The first panel presentation, given by FIRO Steering Committee Co-Chair F. Martin Ralph, covered FIRO’s purpose and background. Subsequent presentations covered various activities in support of FIRO goals, including data collection and monitoring; atmospheric modeling efforts; and hydrologic modeling efforts. These presentations were followed by an update on current results and status of FIRO at Lake Mendocino, including the major deviation approval and resulting operations using FIRO-developed decision support systems during WY2019.

FIRO Panel members inside the panel conference room during the California Water and Environmental Modeling Forum at the Lake Natoma Inn in Folsom, California. From left: Steve Turnbull, Marty Ralph, Chris Delaney, Anna Wilson, Forest Cannon, and Mike Konieczki.

CW3E Participates in UP Summit

April 25, 2019

Research from across the University of California San Diego, including the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), was showcased at the second annual UP Summit on April 25, 2019. UP Summit stands for Understanding and Protecting our Planet, which is one of UC San Diego’s four strategic research themes. It focuses on communicating environmental change, creating solutions to enhance societal resilience, and recommending policy changes. CW3E also participated in the inaugural UP Summit held on May 17, 2018.

After opening remarks by UC San Diego Chancellor Pradeep Khosla and former California Governor Gray Davis, the summit focused on two main issues UC San Diego researchers tackle under the initiative on Understanding and Protecting Our Planet: extreme wildfire and atmospheric river forecasting. Scripps Institution of Oceanography Director Margaret Leinen provided opening remarks and moderated the panel focused on atmospheric river forecasting, where Dr. Marty Ralph, director of CW3E, was joined by Grant Davis, general manager of Sonoma Water; Greg Woodside, executive director of planning and natural resources at the Orange County Water District; and Dave Eggerton, executive director of the Association of California Water Agencies. They discussed the importance of atmospheric river research to improve California’s water supply reliability, flood protection, and climate adaptation.

This opportunity for the students and staff in CW3E to participate in a state capitol policy event is a good example of the type of opportunities being created through the partnership between Scripps Institution of Oceanography/CW3E and UC San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy (GPS), which is helping to bridge science and policy at UC San Diego. This partnership is a key focus for CW3E since policy is a major priority for the Center. Pictured below is the group of CW3E graduate students, post-docs and staff who attended the meeting, located at the California State Capitol Building in Sacramento, Calif. The three graduate students (Meredith Fish, Mike Sierks, and Kara Voss) are all recipients of GPS Science Policy fellowships, a campus-wide initiative which pairs STEM Ph.D. students with GPS faculty mentors to explore the policy implications of their dissertation research.

Under the dome of the Capitol Building (pictured left to right): Tom Corringham, Meredith Fish, Mike Sierks, Kara Voss, Anna Wilson, Marty Ralph.

In front of the Capitol Building (pictured left to right): Anna Wilson, Kara Voss, Mike Sierks, Meredith Fish, Tom Corringham.