CW3E welcomes Dr. Anna Wilson
June 1, 2016
CW3E welcomes Dr. Anna Wilson
June 1, 2016
CW3E welcomes Dr. Scott Sellars
April 25, 2016
CW3E AR Update: 7-10 April 2016 Post Event Summary
April 13, 2016
CW3E and WRCC give a post-event storm summary about two cutoff lows that made landfall over Southern California during 7-10 April 2016. Precipitation was widespread throughout the Southeastern United States with 72-hr accumulations generally ~0.5-3 inches. While the low pressure system entrained moisture from the tropics, spatial characteristics of IWV >20 mm and IVT >250 kg m-1 s-1 did not meet the necesarry requirements to be considered an Atmospheric River.
Click here for a pdf file of this information.
Odds of Reaching 100% of Normal Precipitation for Water Year 2016 in California (April update)
April 10, 2016
Contribution from Dr. M.D. Dettinger, USGS
March is over (and the precipitation totals are in), so here is the update to the historical odds of getting to normal (and other fractions of normal) precipitation this year. Notice that the odds from the March 1 situation (in parens; click here for March report) are included alongside the April 1 odds, so that you can see whether March wetness made much difference. In fact, the odds haven’t changed too much in most areas because, although March was wettish (except down south), those additions were balanced in these April odds by the fact that we have almost run out of time this year to get much more precipitation.
Bottom lines (both of which you probably already know): We’re not going to fill the precipitation deficits we accumulated over the past 5 years with this year’s precipitation (except, long-odds, maybe in eastern NV). In southern California, the precipitation situation is especially grim and even the odds of making it to 75% of normal this year are well less than even.
How these probabilities were estimated:
At the end of a given month, if we know how much precipitation has fallen to date (in the water year), the amount of precipitation that will be required to close out the water year (on Sept 30) with a water-year total equal to the long-term normal is just that normal amount minus the amount received to date. Thus the odds of reaching normal by the end of the water year are just the odds of precipitation during the remaining of the year equaling or exceeding that remaining amount.
To arrive at the probabilities shown, the precipitation totals for the remaining months of the water year were tabulated (for all years, for only El Ninos, or for only La Ninas) and the number of years in which that precipitation total equaled or exceeded the amount still needed to reach normal were counted. The fraction of years that at least reached that threshold is the probability estimate. This simple calculation was performed for a full range of possible starting months (from November thru September) and for a wide range of initial (year-to-date) precipitation conditions. The calculation was also made for the probabilities of reaching 75% of normal by end of water year, 125%, and 150%, to ensure that the resulting tables of probabilities cover almost the full range of situations that will come up in the future. Contact mddettin@usgs.gov for more information.
[One key simplifying assumption goes into estimating the probabilities this way: The assumption that the amount of precipitation that will fall in the remainder of a water year does not depend on the amount that has already fallen in that water year to date. This assumption was tested for each month of the year by correlating historical year-to-date amounts with the remainder-of-the-year amounts, and the resulting correlations were never statistically significantly different from zero, except possibly when the beginning month is March, for which there is a small positive correlation between Oct-Mar and Apr-Sept precipitation historically.]
Contact: Michael Dettinger (USGS)
CW3E AR Update: 7-10 April 2016 Outlook
April 7, 2016
A weak low pressure system and high Integrated Water Vapor (IWV) values have brought light-to-moderate precipitation over Southern California this morning. A closed low is expected to develop off the coast over the next two days and will produce moderate precipitation over Southern California on 8-10 April 2016. IWV and Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT) values will be above AR thresholds but spatial characteristics of IWV/IVT will not meet the requirements of an AR. Coastal Southern California will experience AR conditions (IWV >20 mm and IVT >250 kg m-1 s-1) and light-to-moderate precipitaton, but this event is not considered an AR. For up to date AR forecasts visit the CW3E AR Portal.
Click here for a pdf file of this information.
CW3E Publication Notice
Predictability of Horizontal Water Vapor Transport Relative to Precipitation: Enhancing Situational Awareness for Forecasting Western U.S. Extreme Precipitation and Flooding
March, 2016
Lavers, D.A., D.E. Waliser, F.M. Ralph and M.D. Dettinger, 2016: Predictability of horizontal water vapor transport relative to precipitation: Enhancing situational awareness for forecasting western U.S. extreme precipitation and flooding. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, doi:10.1002/2016GL067765 (Please click here for personal use pdf file)
The following paper has just appeared in Geophysical Research Letters. It was motivated by the critical role of horizontal vapor transport in determining the strength and distribution of extreme precipitation in the Western U.S., and by the fact that this transport is the defining characteristic of atmospheric rivers, which are key to many extreme events in the region. The work was carried out primarily at CW3E in response to interest from State and local water agencies to explore new methods to predict extreme precipitation events. While the findings are based on U.S. West Coast domains, the results are applicable to other west coasts of mid latitude continents where cool season orographic precipitation is a key process. The results support the use of water vapor transport as a variable to monitor for earlier awareness of extreme hydrometeorological events.
Contacts: David Lavers (david.lavers@ecmwf.int) and F. Martin Ralph (mralph@ucsd.edu)
Abstract
The western United States is vulnerable to socioeconomic disruption due to extreme winter precipitation and floods. Traditionally, forecasts of precipitation and river discharge provide the basis for preparations. Herein we show that earlier event awareness may be possible through use of horizontal water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)) forecasts. Applying the potential predictability concept to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction global ensemble reforecasts, across 31 winters, IVT is found to be more predictable than precipitation. IVT ensemble forecasts with the smallest spreads (least forecast uncertainty) are associated with initiation states with anomalously high geopotential heights south of Alaska, a setup conducive for anticyclonic conditions and weak IVT into the western United States. IVT ensemble forecasts with the greatest spreads (most forecast uncertainty) have initiation states with anomalously low geopotential heights south of Alaska and correspond to atmospheric rivers. The greater IVT predictability could provide warnings of impending storminess with additional lead times for hydrometeorological applications.
CW3E AR Update: 5-6 March 2016 Post-Event Summary
March 10, 2016
CW3E gives a post-event storm summary about a moderate strength Atmospheric River that made landfall over Northern California on 5 March 2016. The AR was an R-Cat 1 event and produced over 10 inches of 72-hour precipitation.
Click here for a pdf file of this information.
Northern Sierra Precipitaiton: 8-Station Index
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~7.5 inches of precipitation measured by the 8-Station Index Increased water-year-to-date accummulation from average to ~115% of average |
Lake Mendocino Storage
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Increase in storage of ~8000 af Storage remains above the Target Water Supply Storage Curve |
SSMI Integrated Water Vapor: 0000 UTC 3 March – 0000 UTC 7 March
GFS IVT Analysis: 0000 UTC 3 March – 1200 UTC 7 March 2016
Cazadero, Ca Snow Level Radar
Heavy bright-band precipitation began ~0600 UTC 5 March Large drop in snow level post-frontal |
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Bodega Bay 0200 UTC Sounding
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Event Summary
CW3E R-Cat Alerts: Automated Notification of Heavy Precipitation Events
March 10, 2016
The Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) has set up an automated e-mail notification service that informs users of heavy precipitation events in near real-time. Along the West Coast, such events are often the result of land-falling atmospheric rivers, which transport substantial moisture into the area. Tracking, analyzing, improving the forecasting, and anticipating the impacts of such extreme events are a core element of CW3E’s mission.
The “Rainfall Category” or “R-Cat” 3-day precipitation classification of Ralph and Dettinger (2012) is a simple, effective measure of strong precipitation events, which can have a large impact on the Western U.S.:
R-Cat 1: 200-299 mm (roughly 8-12 inches) / 3 days
R-Cat 2: 300-399 mm (roughly 12-16 inches) / 3 days
R-Cat 3: 400-499 mm (roughly 16-20 inches) / 3 days
R-Cat 4: more than 500 mm (more than roughly 20 inches) / 3 days
An R-cat email alert includes a short summary of the 3-day total precipitation, location of the event (based on sources such as the Global Historical Climatology Network [GHCN] and the National Weather Service’s co-op precipitation stations), and a map showing the location of the event(s). Here is a recent example:
————————————————————————————————————
Station: BRUSH CREEK RS USC00041130
Location: (39.695, -121.345)
Date: 2016/03/07 (third day of event)
Event strength: R-Cat 1
3-day total precip (mm): 206.3
Individual days precip (mm): 76.5 102.1 27.7
————————————————————————————————————
Station: QUINCY USC00047195
Location: (39.937, -120.948)
Date: 2016/03/07 (third day of event)
Event strength: R-Cat 1
3-day total precip (mm): 202.7
Individual days precip (mm): 59.7 119.9 23.1
The email R-Cat alert service can be subscribed to by sending a message with the subject line “subscribe” to rcatalert@cirrus.ucsd.edu.
For more information, please contact David Pierce, dpierce@ucsd.edu.
CW3E AR Update – 10-11 March 2016 Outlook
March 10, 2016
A storm predicted to make landfall over northern California on 10 March 2016 has characteristics of an Atmospheric River. The AR is showing weak-to-moderate strength with an average landfall duration of 12-24 hours. This AR is about 75% as strong as the last significant AR landfall over northern California (March 5-6, 2016). The storm has the slight potential for R-Cat 1 rainfall in favored mountain areas. For up to date AR forecasts visit the CW3E AR Portal.
Odds of Reaching 100% of Normal Precipitation for Water Year 2016 in California (March update)
March 10, 2016
Contribution from Dr. M.D. Dettinger, USGS
The Febraury 2016 precipitation observations are now in, and have allowed for an update to the calculation of the odds of reaching 100% of normal for the water year across three key climate divisions of California and Nevada. These odds have decreased slightly across all of California and Nevada as a result of a very dry February. The odds of reaching 100% of normal Water Year precipitation in the key northern California climate division that encompasses the Sacramento River, and the State’s largest water supply reservoirs, decreased from 52% as of the end of January 2016, to 38% as of the end of February 2016. A series of Atmospheric Rivers have made landfall over Northern California and produced heavy precipitation throughout early March and will most likely cause changes in these odds when updated at the end of March.
How these probabilities were estimated:
At the end of a given month, if we know how much precipitation has fallen to date (in the water year), the amount of precipitation that will be required to close out the water year (on Sept 30) with a water-year total equal to the long-term normal is just that normal amount minus the amount received to date. Thus the odds of reaching normal by the end of the water year are just the odds of precipitation during the remaining of the year equaling or exceeding that remaining amount.
To arrive at the probabilities shown, the precipitation totals for the remaining months of the water year were tabulated (for all years, for only El Ninos, or for only La Ninas) and the number of years in which that precipitation total equaled or exceeded the amount still needed to reach normal were counted. The fraction of years that at least reached that threshold is the probability estimate. This simple calculation was performed for a full range of possible starting months (from November thru September) and for a wide range of initial (year-to-date) precipitation conditions. The calculation was also made for the probabilities of reaching 75% of normal by end of water year, 125%, and 150%, to ensure that the resulting tables of probabilities cover almost the full range of situations that will come up in the future. Contact mddettin@usgs.gov for more information.
[One key simplifying assumption goes into estimating the probabilities this way: The assumption that the amount of precipitation that will fall in the remainder of a water year does not depend on the amount that has already fallen in that water year to date. This assumption was tested for each month of the year by correlating historical year-to-date amounts with the remainder-of-the-year amounts, and the resulting correlations were never statistically significantly different from zero, except possibly when the beginning month is March, for which there is a small positive correlation between Oct-Mar and Apr-Sept precipitation historically.]
Contact: Michael Dettinger (USGS)